UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Pick and Odds

After calling for a fight with Paddy Pimblett on this card after his win at UFC 300, King Green got his wish granted and will be featured on the main card of UFC 304.

In his first fight since legally changing his name, Green (32-15-1, 13-10-1 in UFC) is on the best run of his career at 37 years old, going 3-1 in his last four fights. Since shaking off a 2-4 stretch from 2020 to 2022, Green has picked up signature wins over Tony Ferguson, Grant Dawson and Jim Miller to hold onto his No. 15 ranking in the lightweight division.

Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 in UFC) has yet to officially lose in the UFC despite controversy in his win over Jared Gordon in 2022. 'The Baddy' took a year off after his decision nod over Gordon and returned at UFC 296 with another three-round victory over Ferguson. Overall, Pimblett will carry a seven-fight win streak into his clash with Green at UFC 304.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Green: -115
• Pimblett: -105

Total: 2.5 (Over -160/Under +125)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction and Pick

Pimblett will surely have the crowd behind him at UFC 304 but this matchup with Green is undeniably the toughest test of his career. Green is not only the first ranked fighter Pimblett will face but is easily the best striker he will have fought.

Green's striking volume is impressive at 6.45 significant strikes per minute but his defensive vision is what separated him from others as he owns a gaudy 62 percent striking defense despite leaving his hands by his waist. Contrarily, Pimblett's horrid 41 percent striking defense leaves openings the size of the ocean. If this fight goes in Green's direction, it will look like target practice at times.

While Pimblett has some power that has never been his go-to game plan as he has always preferred to grapple. Yet, Pimblett has never landed more than one takedown in the UFC and Green has not been taken down since Islam Makhachev took him to the mat in 2022. Needless to say, Pimblett is not the same wrestler as Makhachev.

Even if the fight does get to the ground, Green has been a notoriously underrated grappler who has been submitted just twice in his 49 professional fights. He has not been submitted since 2009 and has only ceded more than five minutes of control time once to Jacob Volkmann in his UFC debut.

Green has certainly aged out of his prime at 37 and it would not be surprising to see Pimblett get the better of him on the ground but these are the style of fights that he has historically fared well in.

Prediction: Green by decision

Best bet: King Green ML (-115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.