UFC Abu Dhabi: Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson Prediction, Pick and Odds

Despite constant requests from Dana White to retire, Tony Ferguson will return to the Octagon for his 24th UFC appearance on Aug. 3 against Michael Chiesa.

Chiesa (16-7, 11-7 in UFC) moved up to the welterweight division in 2018 and went on a 4-0 run to put his name into the title conversation but has since lost three straight. With his last win being in 2021, Chiesa picked up consecutive losses to Vicente Luque, Sean Brady and Kevin Holland entering UFC Abu Dhabi.

Ferguson (25-10, 15-8 in UFC) is on an even worse run than Chiesa, losing his last seven fights dating back to 2020. Ferguson last fought Paddy Pimblett at UFC 296 and lost a unanimous decision, tying BJ Penn with the longest losing streak in UFC history. A loss to Chiesa would put the former interim champion in sole possession of the longest losing streak.

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Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Tony Ferguson +440
• Michael Chiesa -600

Total Rounds:

• 2.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson best bet

It is tempting to take Ferguson at these odds but there is simply no reason to do so. In both of their primes, Ferguson was the more skilled fighter but 'El Cucuy' has shown almost nothing left in his tank since losing to Michael Chandler in 2022.

Many will point to the fact that Ferguson has won three fights in his career by D'Arce choke, a particular weakness of Chiesa's, but his last one came in 2016 and the obvious athletic decline he showed against Pimblett has significantly affected his grappling skills. In his career, a lot of Ferguson's grappling success came after severely hurting his opponents with his striking and using his strength, which does not seem likely to happen in 2024.

Chiesa is also past his prime but will still be a bigger fighter than Ferguson. As a pressure grappler, Chiesa will use that to his advantage. In his current losing streak, Ferguson has given up eight total takedowns while giving up over eight minutes of control time in three of those fights.

Chiesa is an active submission threat on the ground but has not submitted an opponent since 2018. Ferguson's submission defense has taken a nose dive in the last five years but has only ever been submitted with chokes and never with joint locks. Chiesa has not completed a choke submission since 2016 and never as a welterweight.

The takedowns should come at will for Chiesa but once he gets on top, he is a prototypical "position over submission" fighter who weaponizes his cardio. Ferguson will be active from the bottom but Chiesa was legitimately upset by the comments Kevin Holland made after his last loss and said he would use his next fight to make a point. He will not get caught in the D'Arce again.

Prediction and best bet: Michael Chiesa by decision (+125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.