U.S. Open Score Predictions (How Will the Top Players Fare at Brookline?)

We're less than 24 hours away from the opening tee shot at this year's U.S. Open.

Jon Rahm will attempt to defend his title, after winning the 2021 edition of the event at Torrey Pines in stunning fashion. Will he get it done again this year?

The U.S. Open is one of the most challenging events of the year. The USGA loves to test golfers' skills, which usually reflects in the winning score.

I'm going to predict the winning score this weekend, as well as the final score of the top 10 golfers on the odds list. All odds below are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

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US Open Score Predictions

Winning Score: -5

The winning score at the last two U.S. Opens, as well as the last time it was hosted at Brookline (1988), was -6. So, I think we're going to see a similar score this week.

As always, the USGA has grown the rough at this course to make it absolutely treacherous, especially around the greens. It's not officially U.S. Open week until a video gets tweeted out of someone dropping a golf ball in the rough and it disappears from sight.

Justin Thomas +750 (+1)

Despite JT coming off a win at the PGA Championship, I don't have a ton of faith in him this week. As I pointed out in my betting preview, you have to be good off-the-tee to succeed at U.S. Opens. He gets plenty of distance off-the-tee, but he ranks 147th in driving accuracy, hitting the fairway just 56.91% of the time. If he has that issue again this week, it's going to be tough for him to compete. Please watch the above video for reference.

Rory McIlroy +930 (-3)

Rory McIlroy is coming off an unbelievable win at the Canadian Open, and his game fits very well at the U.S. Open, especially at Brookline. He's one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, his game is dialed in, and he seems motivated to succeed to shove it in the face of LIV golf.

I don't have anything negative to say about Rory, except for that he struggles to close at Majors. I think he'll be in contention, but he'll fall short once again.

Jon Rahm +1200 (-5)

Jon Rahm is the defending U.S. Open champ, and he's my top pick to win. If there was a robot designed to succeed at USGA events, it would basically be a replica of Rahm. He ranks first on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and his early season short game struggles have been fixed in recent weeks. Rahm has a strong chance to successfully defend his U.S. Open title.

Scottie Sheffler +1200 (+1)

Scottie Scheffler is the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world, but his off-the-tee play may cost him this week. He ranks 59th in that stat, and after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, my confidence in him isn't that strong at Brookline.

Xander Schauffele +1800 (-1)

Xander Schauffele might be a little bit overvalued in terms of betting on him to win this week, but he's had fantastic results at U.S. Opens throughout his career. He's never finished worse than T7 at his five U.S. Open appearances, and I think he keeps that streak alive this year.

Matt Fitzpatrick +2100 (-3)

I think Matt Fitzpatrick has the best value on the board in terms of outright picks. He leads the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season, and won the 2013 U.S. Amateur Championship -- which also took place at Brookline. His Sunday collapse at the PGA Championship is concerning, but I think he'll be in the mix in the weekend again.

Patrick Cantlay +2100 (+4)

Whatever the reason might be, Patrick Cantlay has struggled at Majors throughout his career. In 21 Majors started, he only has two top 10 finishes, and both came back in 2019. He finished T39 at the Masters this year, and he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, so that streak has leaked into 2022. Until he is contention at a major, I have to assume he'll continue to stumble on the big stage.

Cameron Smith +2400 (+3)

I'm a big fan of Cameron Smith and his game, but I listed him as one of the golfers that you shouldn't be betting on this week. As I've mentioned, strokes gained: off-the-tee has been the best historical predictor of winners at this event, but that's Smith's biggest weakness. He ranks 143rd in strokes gained: off-the-tee heading into this week.

His history at this event backs this point up, as his four latest starts at U.S. Opens have resulted in two missed cuts, a T72 and a T38 finish.

Sam Burns +2400 (+2)

I'm the leader of the "let's respect Sam Burns" club, but much like Cam Smith and Scottie Scheffler, his off-the-tee play is making me avoid him this week. He ranks 64th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 57th in strokes gained: around-the-green. When he runs into that thick and deep rough this week, he's going to post come bogeys on his scorecard.

Shane Lowry +2400 (-4)

Shane Lowry is going to be deep in contention for his second major victory. He's quietly been fantastic this season. He finished T3 at the Masters, and T23 at the PGA Championship. He also has a T3 at the RBC Heritage, a 13th at the Zurich Classic, and a T10 at last week's Canadian Open. All of those starts have come in the last two months.

He ranks 17th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and 24th in putting. Boston is the Ireland of the United States, so why not? I think he pushes Rahm, but ultimately falls short.