Vegas Bookmakers Explain Why Chiefs Are Big Home Underdogs Against Bills

By now, you've probably all heard about Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes getting set to play his first game at Arrowhead Stadium as a home underdog in Week 6 when the Buffalo Bills come to town.

You've also probably read that Mahomes is 7-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in this spot over his career, and that he's never lost money for any bettor that's backed him in this spot. So far, the betting public seems to appreciate this, with 64% of the bets currently on the Chiefs to cover at BetMGM Sportsbook.

We now know all these things, driven the narrative into the ground, and yet despite it all, the betting lines continue to favor the Bills. If history suggests Mahomes thrives in these spots, the next step in furthering this discussion, is determining the "why" behind the move towards Buffalo at these different sportsbooks.

Let's take a look at the latest up-to-date odds for Sunday afternoon between the Bills and Chiefs in Kansas City.

Latest Bills vs. Chiefs Odds for NFL Week 6

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Here's What Vegas is Saying About Chiefs Being Home Underdogs

I reached out to multiple oddsmakers at several of the biggest sportsbooks in the country to get a sense of why they opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite, what led to their move of -3 (and then back down), and whether they expect any additional movement throughout the week.

FanDuel Director of Publicity Kevin Hennessy says there were a myriad of factors that went into their decision.

“The move to the Bills is mostly off of the Chiefs uninspiring performance vs the Raiders," Hennessy told BetSided. 

"The Chiefs now have a short week and playing a team that is a more complete team.  The move is more about getting out in front of things as opposed to seeing sharp money on Buffalo.  We did have some interest in Chiefs +3, so we are currently back under a field goal.”

While FanDuel says they were looking to be more proactive on the move rather than taking a lot of action from the sharps, BetMGM Sports Trader Christian Cipollini acknowledged to BetSided, “It’s largely sharp money that is moving the line toward the Bills.”

How to Bet Bills vs. Chiefs in Week 6

BetSided's Iain MacMillan sided with the sharps for the AFC Divisional Round rematch at Arrowhead, grabbing Buffalo at a much better number of -1.5 back on Monday.

As I wrote earlier, The line for the Chiefs is sitting at a perfect spot for a 6-point two-team teaser bet in the NFL this week; moving the number past key numbers of 3 and 7 to get it to +8.5. With Buffalo being 1-7 straight up in one-possession games over the past two seasons, I can't envision a scenario where the Chiefs find themselves looking a blowout in the face in their home building. That could also be a reason to consider the Chiefs straight up on the moneyline as well at +124 odds or better.

If you choose to focus on the total, know that the over has gone 3-0 in their last three meetings, and the lowest total through four games between Mahomes and Allen is 54. Via Evan Abrams of TAN, in those career head-to-head battles, the final total has gone 54, 54.5, 55 and 57.

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