Which Double Digit Underdog Is Most Likely to Surprise in NFL Week 7?

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff faces the team that traded him in the L.A. Rams, along with the player he was traded for in Matthew Stafford this week.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff faces the team that traded him in the L.A. Rams, along with the player he was traded for in Matthew Stafford this week. / Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Underdogs are often counted out by bettors before the game even begins, but as we saw just last year, even the largest of underdogs can not only cover, but shock the betting public and win outright.

Last year, the New York Jets at 0-13 stunned the L.A. Rams 23-20; losing as 17.5-point home favorites. The day after, the Cincinnati Bengals boat raced the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-17 as 14.5-point dogs.

If you would have put a $500 parlay on both those games on the moneyline, you would have been paid $50,700!

Earlier this week, our Peter Dewey highlighted three teams on the NFL Week 7 slate that enter as double-digit home favorites. But can either of these three road underdogs not only cover, but pull off one of the biggest upsets of the season and possibly in league history?

Let's dive into the matchups, with all odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Lions at Rams Spread, Odds and Over/Under


  • Lions: +15.0 (-110)
  • Rams: -15.0 (-110)


  • Lions: +650
  • Rams: -1000


  • 50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Is it a Jared Goff revenge game? A Matthew Stafford one? Goff vs. his former coach in Sean McVay?

Regardless of what side of Narrative Street you end up walking down, I can't back the Lions to pull this off against the Rams.

Detroit has been in several close games, but the talking points surrounding them are not based in reality. They're a bad team with a bad roster this year. The Rams are neither of those two things!

For what it's worth, the Rams were double-digit favorites last season against the winless New York Jets and found a way to lose at home, but I'm not counting on lightning striking twice at the same stadium with fans in the stands. Lions could backdoor cover once it gets out of reach, but they're not winning this game, especially with Stafford and McVay looking to put on a show.

Texans at Cardinals Spread, Odds and Over/Under


  • Texans: +18.0 (-110)
  • Cardinals: -18.0 (-110)


  • Texans: +950
  • Cardinals: -1800


  • 48.0 (Over -110/Under -110)

If Tyrod Taylor were starting this game, I'd say there' s a legitimate argument here. But instead, Davis Mills and Houston gets thrown back into the fire against the hottest team in the NFL in their building. Kyler Murray is the front-runner for NFL MVP and Arizona holds the second-best defense in the league in points allowed.

Again, I don't mind Houston to cover the +18, but no team in NFL history has ever covered more than a 17.5-point spread. The last team to do it was last season when the aforementioned Jets destroyed everyone's survivor pool with a 23-20 win over the Rams at SoFi Stadium.

Bears at Buccaneers Spread, Odds and Under


  • Bears: +12.5 (-110)
  • Buccaneers: -12.5 (-110)


  • Bears: +525
  • Buccaneers: -750


  • 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

In Tampa Bay's three home games this season, they've scored 31, 48 and 45 points. Unless the Bears' offense punts on every possession, which they're always capable of doing in the Matt Nagy regime, Tampa should have a more difficult time moving the ball against Chicago's 8th ranked defense.

Meanwhile, if there was ever a week to see what Justin Fields can do downfield, it's this week against the Bucs' secondary. Their run defense is elite, tops in the NFL in rushing yards and third in touchdowns allowed. Their pass defense is very suspect with injuries piling up in the secondary, ranking fifth-worst in yards and fourth-worst in touchdowns.

Let's not forget that somehow, the Bears stunned the Bucs at Solider Field in Chicago on a Thursday night in the infamous Tom Brady wrong-down game.

I'm as skeptical of a Bears fan as there is, but this defense has been excellent putting pressure on the quarterback this year. If Chicago can catch the Bucs napping post-bye week, I think of the three double-digit underdogs, they stand the best chance to pull of the massive upset.