Betsided

Who are the Sharps, Public Backing in the College Football Playoff Semifinals?

By Ben Heisler

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has the support of both the sharp bettors, as well as the public when they take on Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh has the support of both the sharp bettors, as well as the public when they take on Georgia in the Orange Bowl. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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As the two College Football Semifinal matches inch closer to kickoff, WynnBET has sent over their latest splits for how the betting tickets and money are divided for the spreads, moneylines and totals in today's matchups.

Let's take a look at both of the college bowl games on the New Years Eve slate, with the latest odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. Don't forget, you can get full betting matchup previews for each game from Donnavan Smoot: Cincinnati vs. Alabama, Georgia vs. Michigan, as well as Reed Wallach's betting guide here.

College Football Playoff Semifinal | Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Alabama

Spread:

  • Cincinnati +13.5
  • Alabama -13.5

Moneyline:

  • Cincinnati +425
  • Alabama -525

Total:

  • 57 (Over: -107 | Under: -107)

According to WynnBET communications, Alabama at -13.5 is their top liability for today. The line has stayed at the same number since opening, with the Bearcats moving to 14 at a few other shops.

Not surprisingly, the public is backing 'Bama as they do most seasons, receiving 66.9% of the betting tickets for today's Cotton Bowl. However, the sharps are in line with the public, with 81.9% of the money also on the Crimson Tide.

The total has seen a drop since opening at 58.5, currently sitting at 57. This is where the public and sharps disagree. 73.4% of the total bets are on the OVER in Game 1 of the College Football Playoff, but 67.4% of the money is on the UNDER.

On the latest episode of BetSided's Bet & Breakfast podcast, I shared why I'm also taking the UNDER, but am focused on the first half line of 29.5 instead of the final total.

Interestingly enough, despite moneyline odds of -525 (bet $525 to win $100), an Crimson Tide straight-up victory has the highest number of betting tickets for the sportsbook on New Years Eve.

A Cincinnati moneyline bet at +400 only has 5.7% of the total handle over at WynnBET.

College Football Playoff Semifinal | Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan

Spread:

  • Georgia -7.5
  • Michigan +7.5

Moneyline:

  • Georgia -290
  • Michigan +250

Total:

  • 45.5 (Over -107 | Under -107)

Perhaps recency bias remains strong in the minds of bettors, as the public is backing Michigan as the 7.5-point underdog to cover the spread in the Orange Bowl as the No. 2 seed over No. 3 Georgia. However, the money is also following this trend as well.

58% of the tickets are on the Wolverines to cover, as well as 62.8% of the handle. Interestingly enough, despite more money and tickets on the Michigan side, WynnBET moved from Georgia -7 to Georgia -7.5, indicating that some of the sharps expect the Bulldogs to cover, even if the money does not reflect that support.

Earlier this morning, I wrote about some of the more notable College Football Playoff betting trends, including how longshots of 28/1 or higher have never won a playoff game since its inception back in 2014-15. Michigan opened the season at 40/1, going as high as 100/1 in the futures market this year.

As for the total, the move has been heavy on the OVER. After opening at 43, the line now sits at 45.5, with both the betting and handle percentage favoring the move. 76% of the total bets is on the over, as well as 67.7% of the money.

Finally, with plenty of action on the spread, it makes sense to see Michigan at +240 take in 68.5% of the moneyline handle for today's game to pull off the upset.

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