Wild Wagering Trends for NFL Wild Card Weekend: Unders Have Hit it Big
By Reed Wallach
NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off Saturday afternoon with the Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals; and we at BetSided have you covered with a ton of historical trends on how teams have done on this particular weekend.
Of course, there is an extra game for the second straight year with only the No. 1 seeds getting a bye, but here are several compelling trends, or lack thereof, heading into the NFL playoffs.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends
There is No Edge for Favorites in Wild Card Weekend
Since 2010 on Wild Card Weekend, favorites are 44-45-2 ATS, so there is no real advantage to blindly betting favorites or underdogs.
However, big favorites have crushed the number in recent memory. Via Clev Analytics, only two double-digit underdogs have covered the spread in the first round of the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only one on the board this week at -13 at WynnBET Sportsbook on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pitt opes as 12.5 point dogs in KC. This is highest wildcard spread ever. Chi closed 11 in New Orleans last year. There have been 10 double digit dogs in wildcard history and only 2 have covered. In case someone’s reason for taking Pitt might be “its too many pts in a playoff gm”
— TA (@ClevTA) January 10, 2022
This goes back past 2010, but shows that the betting market has been efficient when discussing big favorites ATS in the postseason.
Unders Are Big Money Makers on Wild Card Weekend
Unders are cashing at a 65% clip in Wild Card games since 2010, a massive number considering this is over a 92-game sample.
There are several different reasons that many will discuss, such as the games being "tighter" due to the intensity of playoff games, or winter weather in certain locations.
While I'm not saying these are surefire reasons why, there is expected to be weather in two AFC locations on Saturday this week that could effect the total.
Be Careful of Rookie Quarterbacks
Clev Analytics posted another interesting Wild Card weekend trend, this time focusing on rookie quarterbacks.
Posted this last yr but QBs making their first playoff start vs a QB who is not is 16-31 straight up & 14-32-1 ats since 2002. Baker won last yr. Hurts, Mac & Kyler fit this week. Carr v Burrow would have fit but obv playing each other https://t.co/Q8f2Vaz92L
— TA (@ClevTA) January 10, 2022
A bunch of quarterbacks apply to this trend, including both Derek Carr and Joe Burrow, who play against each other as well as Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray.