Fansided

NFL: The conference’s imbalance of power

By Taylor Armosino

Jan 12, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) looks to pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter of the 2013 NFC divisional playoff football game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 12, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) looks to pass against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter of the 2013 NFC divisional playoff football game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

In the NBA, the Western Conference has been significantly stronger top to bottom than the Eastern Conference for a while now. With each new season, we wonder whether it’s the year the East starts to close the gap, but that year has yet to come. A similar trend is emerging in the NFL.

More from NFL

In 2012, seven of the top ten teams in the league, as determined by Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, which determines the best teams in the league by evaluating them on a play-by-play basis, played in the NFC. By DVOA, the NFC boasted three of best four teams in the regular season (Seattle, Carolina and New Orleans) last season. And after the postseason ended with Seattle’s 43-8 Super Bowl shellacking of the Broncos, many speculated that the real Super Bowl had been played two weeks earlier when the Seahawks squeaked by the 49ers on Richard Sherman‘s last minute interception.

The NFL historically goes through conference power shifts. In the 1970’s, the AFC won eight Super Bowls. The NFC countered by winning 16 of the next 20 before the AFC regained its footing in the 2000’s, thanks largely to the Patriots and Steelers. Now, four of the last five Lombardi Trophy winners have been NFC teams and that conference looks poised to dominate for years to come.

Oct 7, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shakes hands with Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) following the game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Broncos 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 7, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) shakes hands with Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) following the game at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Broncos 31-21. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports /

For starters, Seattle is the best team in the league – DVOA has had them as the best team in the league in each of the last two seasons. Their core players are young enough to where Seattle should field a competitive, if not dominant, team for years to come. If they can get anything out of Percy Harvin, which would be significantly more than they got from him this season, they should actually improve this upcoming season.

Seattle’s division, the NFC West, is the best in football. The Seahawks and 49ers are perennial contenders and may have the brightest long term outlooks of any teams in the league. St. Louis and Arizona are two of the best defensive teams and are legitimate playoff contenders this season. The 10-win Cardinals were a playoff caliber team last season boasting the best point differential of any non-playoff team.

More importantly, most of the league’s top young quarterbacks reside in the NFC. If we breakdown the best quarterbacks in each conference into tiers, it looks something like this:

AFC

Elite: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady

Near, or nearing, elite: Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger

Above average: Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith

NFC

Elite: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees

Near, or nearing, elite: Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III

Above average : Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Nick Foles

The two best quarterbacks in the AFC, Manning and Brady, are reaching the end of their careers. After them, Luck is the next best guy. He’s also the only young AFC signal caller who is a near lock to be dominant over a long period of time. In comparison, the NFC has a healthy crop of young quarterbacks with big time potential. Put any one of Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton or Griffin (assuming he’s healthy) in the AFC and they’re instantly competing with Luck to be the conference’s best young quarterback. Together, they make up a 2nd tier class of quarterbacks that the AFC can’t come close to competing with. Throw Romo, Stafford and Ryan, all Pro-Bowlers, into that mix and the NFC is significantly stronger at quarterback. And with the NFL’s recent shift away from it’s smash-mouth roots, quarterbacks are more important than ever before.

After Denver and New England, the AFC is completely wide-open. It’s a conference in transition. There are some really intriguing situations moving forward, Jacksonville and Houston in particular, but the long-term outlook isn’t nearly as bright as the NFC’s. The young quarterbacks in the conference aren’t nearly as far along in their development and are no sure thing to pan out as above average, much less elite.

Jun 17, 2014; Eden Prairie, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) throws in drills at Winter Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 17, 2014; Eden Prairie, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (5) throws in drills at Winter Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports /

Moving forward, the AFC as a whole is one big question mark. Even in Denver and New England, the long-term outlooks are cloudy at best. Replacing all-time great quarterbacks is obviously difficult, but that’s what both teams will have to do. For every Aaron Rodgers, there are fifty Mark Malone‘s. Brock Osweiler could end up as a great replacement for Peyton Manning. Or he could fall flat on his face and drag the Broncos down with him. The Patriots have yet to find and stick with an heir for Brady.

Until there’s more clarity in the AFC, the NFC is the favorite to dominate the next decade. Even in this past NFL Draft the quarterback most likely to have success is Teddy Bridgewater, who was drafted 32nd by the Vikings. With Adrian Peterson in the backfield, Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings split out wide and Norv Turner calling the plays, Bridgewater should be on the fast track to stardom. Of course, he was the third quarterback taken after Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel both landed with AFC teams. But Cleveland and Jacksonville aren’t the healthiest environments to develop a young quarterback, at least they haven’t been historically. The smart money is on Bridgewater to be the best signal caller from the class. If he’s not, and Manziel and Bortles both pan out, the NFC is still stronger at quarterback. If Bridgewater becomes a star, it just makes the NFC that much better.

Home/NFL