Greg Monroe: Is it smart to take the qualifying offer?

Detroit Pistons big man Greg Monroe would be taking a major risk by accepting the team’s qualifying offer for next season. That much is certain as the 24-year-old enters his fifth NBA season with a possible one-year deal and unrestricted free agency looming for the summer of 2015.

It’s also pretty evident that Monroe’s decision would be unusual for the league. Over the past dozen years, less than 20 players have accepted the qualifying offers extended to them as restricted free agents, none of whom were potential rising stars like Monroe. Most talented players in restricted free agency receive lucrative long-term contract offers, and it’s become almost standard practice for the best players to get locked up early.

Turning down a long-term offer in your early 20s can be difficult, and that’s why most players don’t do it. The benefits of hitting an artificially depressed open market rarely outweigh the certain payday that comes once the ink dries.

Monroe may be coming to a different conclusion, though it’s hard to say exactly what transpired in the preceding months. Did the Pistons actually offer him long-term deals? He denied rumors on specific contracts, but that doesn’t mean the team offered him nothing. More likely, he’s considering the benefits of leaving Detroit and whether it’s worth gambling financial security for a bigger payday.

It’s a gamble that would require huge faith in the player’s skill and health; over four years, Monroe has missed three games and emerged as one of the best young bigs in the game. So you can see why he would be confident in himself, and maybe even wonder why the team doesn’t seem to agree.

We have no idea how this situation will pan out, but we do know what happened to other players who accepted qualifying offers. It’s important to remember that none of these players were of Monroe’s caliber, though, which underscores why it’s so hard to get a grip on his future. Here’s a look at what’s happened to other players who accepted the QO:

Lands max-level contract

This has never happened before. An NBA player has never accepted a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, only to sign a max-level deal as an unrestricted free agent the next summer. Some might see this as a ideal conclusion to any player taking the QO, but historically it’s never happened.

The reality is that players who sign max-level contracts get those deals early. Guys like John Wall, Kyrie Irving and others were locked up prematurely because teams don’t hesitate to commit to cornerstone players. The fact that nobody offered Monroe a max deal this summer makes it pretty unlikely it’ll happen in 2015.

(Also, guess who can offer Monroe the most money as a UFA if he takes the QO? Detroit! This is why guys don’t take it; the team you’re trying to leave is ultimately the one that can pay out the most.)

Lands lucrative multi-year deal

We’ve seen this happen a couple times. First in 2003 with big man Rasho Nesterovic, then again in 2009 with guard Ben Gordon. Both these players took the qualifying offers from their respective teams, put forth strong campaigns on one-year deals, then parlayed those efforts into big (but not max) money.

Nesterovic played out his qualifying offer with the Timberwolves during the 2002-03 season, then signed a six-year, $42 million deal with the Spurs the next summer. Gordon got five years and $58 million from the Pistons after another strong year with the Bulls in 2008-09. Both deals ended up being disasters, but the players likely aren’t the ones complaining (You can see why the NBA banned six-year contracts).

Monroe probably falls into this category, but he’s also a much better player than either Nesterovic or Gordon was.

Lands mid-level deal

Several players got multi-year deals, but less lucrative ones than those given to Nesterovic and Gordon. Spencer Hawes, Raymond Felton, Mickael Pietrus, Vladimir Radmanovic, Stromile Swift and Michael Olowokandi all got deals ranging from two years and $13.1 million to five years and $30.3 million.

That’s obviously a sizable range, but the annual payouts for each of these deals settled around $6-7 million, making them somewhat comparable. All of these guys were former lottery picks, like Monroe, and teams were clearly paying on pedigree and potential as much as recent production. I don’t think it’d be fair to anyone to compare Monroe to the likes of Stromile Swift.

Lands minor short-term deal

Sometimes, you wonder exactly why a team extended the qualifying offer in the first place. That’s not the case with all of these guys, but it’s clear some teams were a bit optimistic with their players in hoping they’d finally tap their potential.

Nick Young, Marco Belinelli, Darius Morris, Luke Harangody, Robert Swift and Melvin Ely all accepted their qualifying offers, but didn’t receive solid deals the next year. A couple of these guys — Harangody and Swift — haven’t even played in the NBA since taking their QOs.

Things did eventually pan out for Young and Belinelli, though. While these two had to settle for one-year deals with the 76ers and Bulls, respectively, as unrestricted free agents, they’ve settled into long-term situations with new teams now. Swaggy P finally got his long-term deal from the Lakers this summer, and Belinelli just won a title with the Spurs in the first year of a two-year pact.

This doesn’t apply to Monroe, though, unless he decides to become Swaggy G and hijack the Pistons’ offense 20 times a night.

Where does Monroe fit?

If he actually takes the qualifying offer, Monroe is probably looking at a long-term deal for less than the max in 2015. However, it all depends on how he plays, as a huge year could potentially convince the Pistons to fork up that massive contract they’re seemingly hesitating to offer now.

There will certainly be a market for a 25-year-old big man with his skill set, and as Detroit Bad Boys points out, several teams will be able to offer big money without going max. So the bidding could surpass what Gordon got from Detroit four years ago, and in that case, Monroe’s decision won’t look so bad.

This is a big risk, though, and it’s why so many people are still skeptical that Monroe will even take the qualifying offer. To do so would be unprecedented, and effectively gives the Pistons massive leverage over the situation going forward. But if this isn’t just a hollow threat, Monroe’s situation will be one of the most intriguing in the league next season.