The Philadelphia 76ers and the pursuit of 9 wins
By Brad Rowland
Sam Hinkie and the Philadelphia 76ers have a plan, and there is certainly something to be said for that. The debate continues to rage concerning their organizational decision to repeatedly “tank” in favor of building long-term assets through the draft, but at this stage, the majority of NBA diehards have decided where they stand on the issue, and the amount of converts in either direction is minuscule. However, the topic that has been overlooked to a great extent pertains to the on-court product that the Sixers will deploy in 2014-2015.
In short, it is going to be a basketball disaster.
As you likely remember, the Sixers generated some scorn prior to the 2013-2014 season, and many pundits predicted Philadelphia to make a “run” at the worst 82-game record in NBA history, which is currently held by the 1972-1973 edition of the Philadelphia 76ers. It should be noted that the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats, playing in a lockout-shortened season, generated the league’s worst winning percentage (.106) after a 7-59 season, but for the purposes of this discussion, the “mythical” 9-win plateau will serve as the barometer.
There were plenty of reasons to suggest that Philadelphia had a chance to challenge the mark last season, but on the bright side, the Sixers did return three established NBA players in Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner. Young was coming off three consecutive seasons with a PER of 18 or higher, and for all intents and purposes, he is considered to be an above-average starter in the league.
The 7-foot Hawes is a player that can produce divisive opinions, but again, he has a defined NBA skill set (career 36.1% from 3-point distance), and prior to last season, he held career averages approaching 14 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes. No matter your thoughts on Turner (read: he isn’t very good at basketball), the former number two overall pick averaged 13.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game during the 2012-2013 season, and many predicted that a mini-breakout of sorts could be on the horizon.
This season? The roster is significantly uglier on the surface.
It is easy to point to reigning 2013-2014 Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams as a building block of both the future and present, but after Turner and Hawes were jettisoned during last season, Young was dealt away for spare parts in the off-season. Carter-Williams did average 16.7 points and 6.3 assists per game last season, but much like Turner before him, he generated those numbers in a highly inefficient way (40.5% FG, 26.4% 3-PT, 48% true shooting) and his pedigree as a mid-lottery pick in a horrid draft suggests his upside may be limited.
With that said, Carter-Williams is basically the one “constant” on the current roster for the 2014-2015 season, and that presents the largest issue. 2013 first-round pick Nerlens Noel is projected as the runner-up to Carter-Williams in the running for “best player”, but to this point, Noel has been sidelined with knee issues for the duration of his NBA career, and even if his defensive upside (which is enormous) manifests itself in his sophomore season, his offensive array is lacking.
Behind Noel and Carter-Williams, there are no blue chip assets. From a perspective of “veterans”, Philadelphia employs former Warriors, Suns and Magic swingman Jason Richardson, but the 33-year-old has not played in an NBA game since January 18, 2013, and there is a real possibility that he will never suit up for the Sixers. The newly-acquired tandem of Alexey Shved and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute could present some level of actual NBA production if given the opportunity, but Shved has been a minor disaster (especially on defense) in Minnesota, and Mbah a Moute is simply a defensive stopper with zero in the way of offensive explosiveness.
By virtue of the way that Hinkie has constructed his roster, there are numerous options to fill spots on the floor, but names like Brandon Davies, Tony Wroten (who actually posted negative win shares despite playing nearly 1,800 minutes last season), Henry Sims, Hollis Thompson (who I like) and Jarvis Varnado do not inspire a great deal of confidence in terms of producing victories on a consistent basis.
Hinkie’s decision to draft both injured Kansas big man Joel Embiid and top foreign prospect Dario Saric was an interesting one in that both players have incredibly high ceilings, but in a move that seems to repeat itself yearly, neither will be available to take part of the load from Carter-Williams and Noel. For kicks, the Sixers actually acquired former number two pick Hasheem Thabeet via trade this week, but they reportedly have plans to waive the 7-foot-3 center, and even if they don’t, he is unlikely to have a positive impact.
To be clear, it is very difficult to produce an inferior record to the 9-73 pace set by the Sixers more than 40 years ago. However, this 2014-2015 edition of the 76ers, as currently constructed, are set up to make a legitimate claim on that long-standing mark, and without a jump in production (and health) from a handful of players (namely Carter-Williams and Noel), the path is relatively clear to approach the 9-win plateau.