MLB: Impact of the Jason Heyward for Shelby Miller trade

Examining the impact of the Jason Heyward for Shelby Miller trade on both the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves.

The Cardinals made the first big move of the MLB‘s offseason on Monday afternoon, trading for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden of the Atlanta Braves in exchange for pitchers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. There was some speculation that Heyward was on the trading block as the Atlanta Braves looked to rebuild a farm system gutted after years of misuse, but this trade still came as a surprise and sent shock waves around the MLB and the Twitter universe as the news broke.

This trade is really a story about two of the National League’s most prolific franchises going different directions in the near future. The Cardinals are going all in for 2015, a sentiment echoed by John Mozeliak’s press conference Monday afternoon. The Braves are going the other way, looking to rebuild/reload with an eye towards the 2017 season, when they open a new ballpark in Atlanta.

To explore the motives behind the trade for the Cardinals, you have to start with the tragic loss of Oscar Taveras and the gaping whole left with his death earlier this offseason. Taveras was penciled in as the Cards starting right fielder for next season and beyond, and to loose a player like him is devastating. The Cardinals acted quickly to replace him, getting Heyward for the 2015 season with the potential to sign him to a long term deal before he becomes a free agent in the Winter of 2015.

Mozeliak recognized the tricky situation with Taveras and commented on it in his press conference, saying, “I don’t want to forget about Oscar. I don’t want this to be something where we lose sight of what could have been. But the reality is we have to move on. We’re going to play next year. The game of baseball is always moving. It doesn’t stop for anyone. That’s how we have to approach it.”

This move shows the strength of the Cardinals organization to be able to move on so quickly. Not every team in the MLB can loose a franchise cornerstone player to a tragic accident one day and replace him a few weeks later.

Oscar’s “replacement” is not a bad ballplayer either. Jason Heyward is a low risk, high reward move for the Cardinals that comes at a manageable price. Heyward’s floor for next season is about what you have gotten him out of the last five seasons in Atlanta — a .262/.351/.429 slash line and 84 homers in the past five seasons.

Heyward’s ceiling is where the deal could go from good to great for the Cards. Heyward is on the shortlist of National League MVP candidates, as he plays excellent defense, hits for power and is still young at 25 yards of age. Mozeliak described Heyward as “an extremely talented player. He’s young. I think in this environment, he has a chance to be a great player.”

This is very much a short term deal for the Cardinals. There is a chance Heyward resigns after his contract is up, but more likely, he hits the open market so that a desperate team can throw a Giancarlo Stanton-esque contract offer at him. The Cardinals potentially would pay him for the right price, but remember, they didn’t give Albert Pujols a long term deal when he was up for a contract extension a few offseasons ago. I think the Cards aren’t willing to give Heyward that big contract he is going to demand on the open market and that they are content getting him for a season and letting him walk into free agency after 162 games.

Heyward transforms the 2015 St. Louis Opening Day lineup into a real juggernaut, along with Matt Holiday, a healthy Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter. The price the Cardinals pay comes in the long term effects of the trade, as they gave up two talented young pitchers in the deal. Shelby Miller is a 24-year-old who accumulated a 3.88 ERA and a 26-18 record with the Cardinals in 69 games over the past three seasons. The Braves potentially get a young ace in this deal and the Cardinals lose a good young piece of their rotation.

The Cardinals will look to replace Miller with Marco Gonzales or Carlos Martinez, two less polished young pitchers who each have the potential to develop into solid back end starters. Martinez has seen most of his work in the bullpen so far in a Cardinals uniform, so it will be interesting to see if the Cards keep him in the pen or transition him into a starting role this Spring. The Cards can also use more of their organizational depth to go out and make a trade for a back end starter as well.

For the Braves, this move is all about rebuilding both the big league ball club and the farm system for the future. Jenkins provides help for the farm system and Miller injects a young arm into the rotation.

In the end, this trade ends up benefiting both teams each going in different directions. The Cardinals are all in for 2015 and look to end the San Francisco Giants reign of excellence in the National League, while the Braves are content taking a small step back in 2014 and 2015 with an eye towards the future.

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