Arizona Cardinals: Are they Contenders or Pretenders?
By Keith Myers
The Arizona Cardinals loss on Sunday at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks has raised some questions on whether or not Arizona is truly a Super Bowl contender this season.
Before last Sunday’s loss to Seattle, the Arizona Cardinals had been cruising through their schedule with a 9-1 record, which was the best in the NFL. Then the loss to the Seahawks happened. Was that just a bump in the road, or a sign of larger problems that are beginning to show?
It is easy to write off a loss in Seattle as nothing to be worried about. The Seahawks have the best home record in the league over the last three seasons. Almost no one wins up there, so a loss shouldn’t be too concerning.
On the other hand, the Cardinals offense looked awful all game. They only managed three points and never really threatened to score throughout most of the game. Against a defense that has struggled lately, that isn’t a good sign.
The Cardinals are currently at 9-2, with wins over playoff contenders San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia and Detroit. Their only losses have come on the road against Denver and Seattle, last season’s two Super Bowl teams. That’s an impressive collection of quality wins without any bad losses.
In fact, TeamRankings lists Arizona’s strength of schedule as the 12th toughest of in the NFL. It’s not like they’ve compiled their impressive 9-2 record against a creampuff schedule.
The Cardinals are also only 3-2 with Drew Stanton as the starting quarterback. The team is undefeated with Carson Palmer under center, but Palmer is done for the year with a knee injury.
| Category | Palmer | Stanton |
| Record | 6-0 | 3-2 |
| Comp % | 62.9% | 53.6% |
| Yds/gm | 271 | 178 |
| Rating | 95.6 | 79 |
| TD/Int | 11/3 | 5/3 |
| Yds/att | 7.26 | 7.08 |
| 1st D % when throwing on 3rd D | 52% | 43.5% |
Advanced Metrics
The advanced metrics aren’t particularly impressed by the Cardinals this season. All of them suggest that the team isn’t as good as their record suggests. This is especially true for their offense.
Football Outsiders and their mathematical models don’t think much of Arizona. The Cardinals are a mediocre 16th overall in weighted DVOA. This includes begin ranked 23rd on offense, and 21st on special teams.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) agrees. They’ve graded out Arizona’s offense at -96.1, which is worse than all but four NFL teams. defensively they have the Cardinals at +5.1, which is right smack in the middle of the league.
Neither of these analytical sites believe in Arizona’s ability to win a Super Bowl this season. It also explains why, despite having a 94.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, they have just a 6.9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl according to Football Outsiders.
The Prediction Machine takes this even further. They have the Cardinals as having an 88.8 percent chance of making the playoff, but only a 4.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. That is less than division rivals Seattle (6.5 percent) and San Francisco (5.9 percent).
The Verdict
The data here certainly suggests that the Arizona Cardinals aren’t true Super Bowl contenders without Carson Palmer. The defense is championship caliber, but the offense doesn’t have the firepower necessary to win a title.
Of course, that conclusion is missing one key point. Arizona still has head coach Bruce Arians. Arians has shown over the last 2-plus seasons that he can always put his players in a position to be successful.
With Arians running the show, the Cardinals will always have a chance to win.
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