Breaking down the angles for NFL Conference Championship Weekend
By Andrew Garda
As we enter the penultimate weekend of NFL football, we’ve narrowed down our active teams to just four, but like Thunderdome, not everyone will escape the weekend alive.
The Colts, Patriots, Packers and Seahawks have all run the gauntlet and managed to get this far, for which they should be duly applauded. But as each player on every team will tell you, this isn’t the end-all be all – a Super Bowl is.
Let’s take a look at both games and what we expect to happen.
NFC Conference Finals – Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Suffice to say this will be a very tough game to win for Green Bay.
The Seattle Seahawks are playing very good defense, solid offense and have a nice home field advantage. The Green Bay Packers have a banged up Aaron Rodgers, a solid defense and are on the road.
A lot of this game may come down to two things—how effective Eddie Lacy is and whether the Packers decide to cede half the field to Richard Sherman again.
Lacy should have a very solid day, though it won’t be easy. Why is it so critical, though? Because the Seahawks are going to blitz and try to test just how mobile Rodgers really is. The Packers offensive line was very good but if the Packers are smart (and Rodgers is still as hurt as he appeared last week), they’ll try to keep the defense honest with a healthy dose of Lacy.
They should also try to avoid repeating that Week 1 gameplan where they just didn’t throw at half he field and Richard Sherman. Granted, the team is in a much different place now, but I’m not the sort of guy who wants to give up half the field.
I’m not saying challenge Sherman on every play, but don’t avoid him completely. Quick outs, short slants, passes like that will take advantage of the cushion he often gives receivers and when it draws him in, it will open up deeper posts for other players.
Again, you don’t have to attack him frequently—just keep him honest.
Seattle has the edge in this game and it’s going to be tough to beat them. The Packers, of course, have far more than a puncher’s chance but Seattle is just playing at such a high level—and are at home—that they win in a close one.
AFC Championship – Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Nobody should doubt the Indianapolis Colts again, not after the beating they put on the Denver Broncos last weekend. Sure, there was a lot of Broncos-self-inflicted-wounds going on there (has anyone seen the defense yet?) but ultimately the Colts played far better than expected.
That said, it’s hard to go to New England and beat New England. The Patriots are 13th in the NFL overall defensively, and have allowed the 8th fewest points in the NFL over the last season. They are just 17th against the pass, but have allowed the 13th fewest passing touchdowns while tying for 12th most interceptions.
There has been a lot of talk about the defense being overrated or, in some cases, not even that good period, but don’t get caught up in that. It is.
Over the first two rounds of the playoffs, Andrew Luck has thrown just three touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Not bad, but not great. He blew up the Cincinnati Bengals—you know, the kings of one and done—and did OK against the Denver Broncos. Overall his two picks were not entirely his fault and ended up being what amounts to really good punts, but they were a little forced.
But don’t bet against Luck having a good game, because he’s shown he can.
The problem with the Colts remains the defense which played well last week, but that I don’t trust at all. I don’t believe they have to talent to shut Tom Brady down, and it’s going to be a real problem if Vontae Davis and Greg Toler are out. Even one of them would be an issue—both would be disastrous.
Davis is the bigger issue as he is a far better corner.
The thing is though, even if they both play Brady won’t be worried. You shut down Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski will kill you. Add another player to Gronk and suddenly Danny Amendola is there.
It’s not a murderers row of receivers, no, but Brady utilizes them very well.
The Colts also lack a run game—no I don’t expect Boom Herron to blow up the Patriots—and aside from TY Hilton, I don’t love the receiving options.
Again, I refuse to count out Luck finding a way to put his team in position to win, but against Brady? I don’t think it sticks.