San Antonio Spurs maximizing three-point shooting in a new way

In order to have the best, most modern, most analytically sound NBA offense, you need to shoot tons of three-point shots. Right? Wrong. Well — actually, that’s sort of right.

Perhaps the key to running the most effective offense is slightly different from “Maximize three-pointers”: Maximize open shots. It’s a concept just as simple — look to create open shots from anywhere on the floor, even that woefully out-of-vogue area just inside the arc. This is the strategic twist that the San Antonio Spurs have added to their offense this season while holding down — so far — a franchise-record winning percentage.

The 2015-16 Spurs are attempting fewer three-pointers per game than they have in about a decade. With the 26th-most three-point attempts in the league, they are in the company of teams thought to be analytics-adverse in terms of how infrequently they shoot three-pointers. The difference between the Spurs and the other two-pointer-heavy teams, though, is that San Antonio is making 39.5% of their attempts from deep. Sure, that’s a pale second place to the Golden State Warriors (41.8%) on the season. Forget the outlier Warriors for a second, though: the Spurs are 21st all-time in accuracy from any team in any season. What’s more, they’re improving significantly as the year goes on:

The Spurs are a team that is looking to shoot three-pointers only after they have broken down a defense. That is: the Spurs almost never want to shoot a three-pointer as Plan A. But three-point shooting is still vitally important to every one of their possessions — or, the threat of three-point shooting is always vitally important.

After all, sinking three-point shots might not be even half of the point of having good floor spacing. What’s much more important for a well-spaced offense is that they frequently infiltrate the vacated key for open lay-ups and dunks. Look at how the Spurs’ exceptional passers and cutters easily operate in open space while wing defenders must monitor three-point shooters:

Make the right cut, and it works even when you have a big man in the key:

Sometimes the open shot that’s generated after slicing up the key is actually a 17-footer:

I don’t think that Gregg Popovich and company cringe when those 17-footers go up, either. The team’s preference really is for the open shot, wherever it is. If that means running in for the mid-range — while your defender flies by to contest the three — then so be it:

What else are the Spurs doing when they’re not shooting three-pointers? They’re actually posting up — and more frequently than any other team in the league. Between Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Boris Diaw, and David West, the Spurs have an incredible collection of efficient post scorers. Simply handing the ball to them is pretty efficient on its own, as half-court offenses go.

One thing that’s special about all the Spurs’ post scorers is that they are also all gifted passers. They will operate in the post if they need to — but it also feels like they’re daring the opponent to send a double team. If the double does come, they pass out of the post quickly enough that the defense is effectively broken. Here, finally, come the three-pointers — but only because they are the wide-open shot in the offense:

One of the main reasons that the Spurs are shooting such an incredible percentage is their aggressiveness in finding the open shooter once the defense breaks down. And the Spurs players are smart enough to break a defense down off of a small mistake. Below, in his first game for the Phoenix Suns, Phil Pressey (#25) wants to switch on the pick-and-roll, which has him guarding Boris Diaw. Boom — that’s the mistake:

The Spurs abandon their play and dump the ball to Diaw, who breaks down the defense once the inevitable double comes to help tiny Pressey.

Make a mistake as fundamental as wandering away from a shooter and the Spurs’ passing will ensure that you’re toast:

A defense that doesn’t track all five players in semi-transition is another broken scheme the Spurs will feast on. Notice how Tony Parker runs into a double-team and immediately figures that there is an open man:

A defense that’s broken isn’t even necessarily at fault. The chaos following an offensive rebound is another time the Spurs will strike:

At the Spurs’ peak, this team will get the defense rolling on skates, as they did with the famous “Spursgasm” two years ago in the playoffs:

Plays this cunning and indefensible are special. They also don’t come out of thin air: design this intricate is totally intentional. Here’s Spurs assistant Ettore Messina talking about his philosophy on ball movement in 2012, when he was a consultant with (ironically) the Los Angeles Lakers:

I think that, to have good floor balance, you need to do one of these two things: either reverse the side of the offense at least one time. Or play at least one time in the same action, in and out. […] If you don’t have a good look, I think you want to move the defense. […] As long as they move, you can create gaps. And in those gaps, you can fill those gaps with players — cutting — or with the ball, with a pass, and you take advantage of that.

This seems to be the underlying philosophy that the Spurs are following in 2015-16. Move the ball to create gaps, and then create shots out of those gaps. Sometimes the Spurs will get a three-point shot out of it — but probably not. And that’s working out just fine for them.