Warriors have not been passing like they usually do
By Ian Levy
The Golden State Warriors stayed alive with a big win in Game 5. Can they maintain their offensive rhythm long enough to steal two more wins from the Oklahoma City Thunder?
When it comes to ball movement, the offenses of the Warriors and Thunder seem to adhere to very different philosophies. The Warriors are constantly moving the ball, inside and out, from side to side, moving the defense and probing for openings. The Thunder tend to have the ball in the hands of Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant the majority of the time, and when they’re passing it’s often the final piece of the puzzle, delivering the ball to an open shooter.
You can see from these offensive style charts that both teams use an efficient shot selection and an extremely fast pace. They sit on the opposite ends of the spectrum for ball movement.
During the regular season, the Warriors recorded an assist on 68.0 percent of their made baskets, the highest ratio in the league. The Thunder were at 55.8 percent, 21st in the league. Both offenses were extremely efficient during the regular season — ranking first and second in points scored per 100 possessions — reinforcing the idea that there is more than one way to design a good offense. However, in their Conference Finals matchup, we can see how the Warriors’ system has been disrupted.
The table below compares the Warriors and Thunder, regular season and Conference Finals, on a few additional passing metrics.
Both teams are averaging slightly fewer passes in the Conference Finals than they did during the regular season, but it is what they are getting from those passes that really demonstrates how disruptive Oklahoma City’s defense has been.
The Warriors have averaged about nine fewer potential assists (assists and passes that would have been an assist had the shot been made) per game in this series. They’ve also been converting a smaller percentage of those potential assists into actual assists by making open shots.
Even in Game 5, where the Warriors offense put up 120 points and seemed to regain some of their rhythm, they still only managed 45 potential assists. However, with 25 actual assists, their assist conversion percentage was 55.5 percent, slightly better than their regular season average.
The Thunder’s defense had been incredibly disruptive through the first four games. Game 5 seemed like a breakthrough of sorts for the Warriors offense but they are still a long way from the smoothly efficient machine they were during the regular season. Given how close this game was, and the fact that the Warriors still need to win two more, figuring out how to fully recapture their passing magic could be key.
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