Ravens face last stand with question marks abound
For the Baltimore Ravens, this could be the last stand.
Baltimore was expected to compete for an AFC North title and perhaps more in 2015, only to be derailed by an incredible slew of injuries. Included in the walking wounded were quarterback Joe Flacco (torn ACL), running back Justin Forsett (broken arm), wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. (torn Achilles) and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (torn Achilles).
All are back in 2016, but questions are attached to each. Flacco is 31 years old and realistically, not going anywhere through the 2019 season. How will the veteran re-acclimate himself to moving in the pocket following two torn ligaments?
Forsett, 29, could be released after this season should Baltimore choose that route, so he’s not a long-term concern. However, there is no depth behind him. Last year, Forsett ran for 641 yards on 4.2 yards per carry before going down against the Los Angeles Rams. Can a former journeyman bounce back?
Smith, 37, is planning on retirement following this campaign. He is charged with both bringing along second-year man Breshad Perriman while providing another sensational season. Then there is Suggs, 33, who is coming off a second Achilles tear. If Suggs can come back and produce another double-digit sack season, it would be nothing short of miraculous.
Baltimore needs all these vets to come through. General manager Ozzie Newsome is one of the best in the National Football League, but the depth chart doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Za’Darius Smith is Suggs’ understudy and had a nice rookie campaign with 5.5 sacks, but he’s only backup of the four who would be legitimate. While Kamar Aiken had 944 yards and five touchdowns, nobody would call Aiken a primetime player. Perriman is a complete unknown who came into the NFL very raw in terms of route-running, so that also appears to be a project. Flacco is backed up by Matt Schaub, while Forsett’s primary replacement is Lorenzo Taliaferro.
The Ravens are in a tough division but also a winnable AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals are very good but lost plenty in free agency. The Pittsburgh Steelers are loaded offensively but have defensive questions and injury concerns with Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell.
In the AFC, there is no true dominant favorite. The New England Patriots would normally be that team, but the trade of Chandler Jones and suspension to Tom Brady is opening the door. The Denver Broncos are defending champions but have mark Sanchez starting at quarterback and lost both Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan to free agency.
If Baltimore can stay healthy, it can make a move in this wide-open conference. If not, it’s time for Newsome to head up the youth movement in Charm City.
Film study
The Indianapolis Colts are trying to rebound from an ugly 7-9 campaign. In a year when the Colts were thought to be Super Bowl favorites, Andrew Luck played horribly and then lacerated his kidney, ending any hopes of Indianapolis getting deep into the playoffs.
Yet Luck and his kidney weren’t the only problem. There is an expectation among some that with Luck healthy, the Colts will immediately go back to winning double-digit games and challenging for Super Bowl LI. That would mean one has to grossly overlook the defense.
Last season, Indianapolis finished 26th in total defense and 24th against the pass. It was a struggle to stop any offense, as the Colts allowed 27 or more points in seven games in 2015. In a two-week December stretch that featured road games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis surrendered 96 total points.
In the offseason, this unit only got worse. General manager Ryan Grigson basically swapped out Greg Toler for Patrick Robinson as his second cornerback, while letting middle linebacker Jurrell Freeman walk. Grigson didn’t draft anybody who appears to be an immediate starter either, leaving it up to the same group to vastly improve.
Here are examples of what plagued the Colts defense all of last season, and what’s likely to be their downfall again this fall:
Week 1: Indianapolis at Buffalo
It’s 2nd and 12 from the 50-yard line in a scoreless first quarter. On this play, Buffalo is in “12” personnel with a running back, two tight ends and a pair pf receivers. Indianapolis is in a basic 3-4 look with off-man coverage and two deep safeties. While it appears to be Cover 2 on the surface, it’s actually Cover 3.
Mike Adams comes up from his safety spot to play underneath zone while Dwight Lowery (Lowery left for the Chargers in free agency) is responsible for the deep middle zone. Darius Butler, at the bottom of the screen on the 43-yard line, is supposed to take the deep right third while Vontae Davis takes the deep left third.
Looking at this play, Davis and all the linebackers are in perfect position, along with Adams. However, there are two major problems unfolding. One, look at the pocket for Tyrod Taylor. Despite taking a long five-step drop, he has no pressure in his pocket. Two, Lowery hasn’t moved an inch toward the middle of the field.
By Lowery so far left, Taylor knows he has man-to-man coverage with Butler against Percy Harvin, one of the fastest men in the NFL. It’s a no-brainer.
Butler actually has good coverage, although he allows Harvin to get outside of him. In this scheme, he would want to force Harvin toward his help. That said, Lowery isn’t providing any help. He’s 40 yards away from the play.
Taylor makes the perfect throw, Harvin gets a step and six points. Lowery has completely blown the assignment in a portent of things to come for the Colts secondary.
Week 11: Indianapolis at Atlanta
This is 3rd and 1 in the final minute of a scoreless first quarter. Atlanta has Tevin Coleman in the backfield with fullback Patrick DiMarco lined up tight left and tight end Levine Toilolo on the right side of the line. Julio Jones and Roddy White are wide left and right, respectively. Indianapolis is in a base 3-4 with man-to-man principles.
Atlanta sends White and Jones on shallow crosses while DiMarco runs a corner route. The cross is a tough assignment for any defense in man coverage, but the Colts take this to an entirely new level.
Circled is linebacker Jurrell Freeman, who was supposed to guard DiMarco. He hasn’t moved since the snap, believing he has Coleman should the back release. Looking at the play, D’Qwell Jackson should be on Coleman.
Meanwhile, deep safety Clayton Geathers is …. guarding the turf. After watching this a dozen times, it remains impossible to figure what Geathers sees here. The best guess is he goes to double Jones on the cross.
The result is the easiest touchdown in the history of pro football.
Week 14: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
This is 1st and 10 at the JAX 20-yard line. The Jaguars are trailiing 13-9 a minute into the third quarter and getting their first possession of the second half. On this play, Blake Bortles has Allen Robinson wide right with Allen Hurns inside of Robinson and off the line of scrimmage. Jacksonville also has a back next to Bortles and a tight end on the left side of the offensive line, who stays in to block.
Indianapolis is in 3-4 base with safety Mike Adams in man coverage against Hurns with Dwight Lowery deep. The play calls for Bortles to roll right with only two receivers in the pattern. This is a FLOOD pattern and the read is high to low (deep to short). It’s man coverage all the way, with Lowery over the top.
Lowery sees Bortles rolling and heads toward the right hashmark, but the Colts are already sunk. The Jaguars try to sell a sweep to the right out of shotgun formation, and Adams (orange arrow) bites hook, line and sinker. Hurns gets a clean release and is by Adams before he even turns to run in coverage. Also, note Robinson’s route, which clears out Vontae Davis.
This is brutal coverage by Adams, who went to his first Pro Bowl in 2014. Adams has his hips facing Indianapolis’ sideline while Hurns is breaking in the opposite direction. It’s deplorable coverage, even after being beat. Adams should have ran in trail position knowing he had Lowery deep, and then turned with Hurns. He didn’t, and it’s a disaster.
Lowery, to his credit, almost intercepts the pass but missed by inches and then collides with Adams. The result? An 80-yard touchdown and the start of a 42-point second half.
All told, the problems are obvious. The talent is lacking outside of Davis, and the understanding of scheme is awful. If the secondary doesn’t hit the playbook and find some more skill, Indianapolis will continue to get torched.
Power rankings
Top 14 triplets in 2016
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger/Le’Veon Bell/Antonio Brown
2. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo/Dez Bryant/Jason Witten
3. New England Patriots: Tom Brady/Julian Edelman/Rob Gronkowski
4. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers/Eddie Lacy/Jordy Nelson
5. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton/Jonathan Stewart/Kelvin Benjamin
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston/Doug Martin/Mike Evans
7. Kansas City Chiefs: Alex Smith/Jamaal Charles/Jeremy Maclin
8. Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton/Giovani Bernard/A.J. Green
9. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan/Devonta Freeman/Julio Jones
10. Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson/Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett
11. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles/Allen Robinson/Allen Hurns
12. Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr/Latavius Murray/Amari Cooper
13. Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins/DeSean Jackson/Jordan Reed
14. Arizona Cardinals: Carson Palmer/Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd
Quotable
"“Typically, the third quarterback is down,” said Pederson, according to the Philly Voice. “It’s hard right now to look down the road, but if we had to play this week, Carson would be down. He’d be the third quarterback. He’d be deactivated. That’s probably the direction we’re heading, I would think is going that route.” – Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson, on what to expect Week 1 for Carson Wentz."
Wentz was the second-overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, and Pederson is taking an extremely cautious approach. With Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel signed to lucrative contracts, the Eagles have reason to let Wentz learn without any pressure.
All that said, this is eyebrow-raising. Pederson is a first-time head coach in a city known to have little patience. Bradford is clearly not a franchise quarterback while Daniel is a career backup. The Eagles have no expectations this season but a good offensive line and some weapons on the outside. Why not let Wentz learn and get his mistakes out of the way?
Philadelphia botched this from the beginning. Daniel was a good signing because he’s a veteran who is coming with Pederson from Kansas City. He understands the offense and can help Wentz along. However, the signing of Bradford made no sense then and even less now. Why pay an injury-plagued, average quarterback $35 million over two years when Wentz was coming down the pike?
Regardless, Wentz appears to be on the sidelines in jeans for the foreseeable future.
Random stat
The New York Giants have won the Super Bowl four times (1986, 1990, 2007, 2011). They have never made the playoffs in the following season.
Info learned this week
1. Arian Foster is looking for second life on South Beach
Foster has been one of the better running backs in the NFL since entering the league as an undrafted free agent in 2009. The former University of Tennessee star has since racked up 6,472 rushing and 2,268 receiving yards with 68 touchdowns, but he finds himself on the free-agent market after being released by the Houston Texans.
According to Ian Rapoport, Foster, 29, has signed with the Miami Dolphins a team in desperate need of an upgrade in the backfield. Miami lost 1,000-yard back Lamar Miller to the Texans back in March.
Foster’s main problem has been durability. He has played 16 games in a season just twice and last year was limited to four games with a groin injury on the first day of training camp, followed by a torn Achilles.
If Foster can get back to old form, he’s a steal. If not, there isn’t much risk.
2. NFL to use data-chips in preseason footballs
For years, the league has been trying to become more precise. Now, commissioner Roger Goodell and Co. are taking a groundbreaking step by introducing microchips inside the football, according to Kevin Seifert of ESPN.
The idea is to help spot the ball with better accuracy, while also monitoring how close field goal attempts come to the uprights. Kickers are better than ever, and so the NFL is tinkering with the idea of narrowing the goalposts to provide a bigger challenge.
This is on the heels of the extra point going from a 20-yard attempt to 33 yards, something that did add drama to a previously mundane play.
3. Reggie Bush making another stop?
After the news broke on Friday that Buffalo Bills second-year running back Karlos Williams would be suspended four games for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy, there was speculation that the team would start looking at available players to fill the void.
Apparently, Reggie Bush is that guy. According to Ian Rapoport, Bush is the target for general manager Doug Whaley, who hopes he can pair Bush with LeSean McCoy. Bush is talented but has been injury-prone throughout his career.
Bush was drafted second-overall in 2006 by the New Orleans Saints and played 16 games as a rookie, but has only matched that feat once since. Bush has played with four teams and last recorded over four yards per carry in 2013 with the Detroit Lions.
4. Maccagnan gets Jets back on track
The New York Jets avoided potential disaster on Friday, shocking the football world by coming to terms on a five-year, $85 million contract with $53.5 million guaranteed with defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson.
It was long thought that Wilkerson would be a contentous holdout through training camp and perhaps into the regular season after there was little to no movement on his contract for months. Yet, general manager Mike Maccagnan pulled the stunner of the summer. In addition, he opened up cap space to sign quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick has made it known he wants a multi-year deal worth somewhere in the $12 million/year range. With the signing of Wilkerson, he went from a $15.7 million cap number in 2016 to $10 million. This saves New York $5.7 million and approximately $8.8 million in space, which should be enough to get Fitzpatrick in the fold with a good structure.
I’ve been highly critical of Maccagnan this offseason, but he made it right last week.
5. Franchise tags provide huge risk for teams, players
On Friday, four players failed to come to a long-term resolution with their current teams: Eric Berry (Kansas City Chiefs), Alshon Jeffery (Chicago Bears), Kirk Cousins (Washington Redskins) and Trumaine Johnson (Los Angeles Rams).
All four could be tagged again at 120 percent of their 2016 salary after this season, but are much more likely to become free agents. Should the aforementioned players put up big seasons, they are in a great position to cash in.
However, the quartet faces a real risk of a down year or even worse; injury. If any get hurt for a serious length of time, their value is largely impacted. Instead of guaranteed money for years, they could be looking at a meager one or two-year deal.
Ultimately, it’s surprising agents and general managers don’t come together more often in these situations. The risk is so great for both sides, but in these four cases, both parties are willing to dance with the devil.
History lesson of the Week
The Los Angeles Rams are returning to their previous home this season, but not their original one. Before moving west to Los Angeles, the Rams played in Cleveland from 1936-42 before missing the 1943 season due to World War II. The team returned for two more years in 1944-45 and beat the Washington Redskins in the NFL Championship Game before moving to Los Angeles prior to the 1946 season.
The Rams were the first team to move west, later being joined by the San Francisco 49ers in 1950 as part of the All America Football Conference-NFL merger agreement. No other teams would locate west of St. Louis until 1970, when the American Football League merged with the NFL, bringing over the Houston Oilers, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers.
Cleveland would get an NFL team back in 1950 when the Browns moved from the AAFC (1946-49) in the merger.
Parting shot
This is it for the Cincinnati Bengals and Marvin Lewis if there is another playoff failure. Cincinnati has been to the playoffs five consecutive years and failed to reach the Divisional Round, despite playing at home in two of the contests.
Lewis has been successful with the Bengals, amassing a 112-92-2 record with a team that was rancid before his arrival. Still, the postseason hurdle has to be cleared by the Bengals at some juncture. Last year appeared to be that moment against the Steelers, only to watch Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones sustain a complete meltdown.
While some will blame the players for those actions – and not incorrectly – it’s a bigger indictment of Lewis and his lack of control. If the Bengals don’t reach the postseason once more and actually win something this time, Cincinnati owner Mike Brown should relieve Lewis of his duties and provide a fresh message to a very talented locker room.
One could argue Brown missed his chance before the 2014 season. The Bengals could have hired then-defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, but Cincinnati kept Lewis after a lackluster Wild Card loss to the San Diego Chargers. Zimmer has become a terrific, young head coach with the Minnesota Vikings and looks like a missed opportunity for the Bengals.
It’s now or never for Lewis. Or at least it should be.