January 2000.
That was the last time the Buffalo Bills reached the postseason. Back when Bill Clinton was the still President of the United States and the world was rejoicing over surviving Y2K.
Fast forward to 2016, and there has been no shortage of pain and misery for the proud folks of Buffalo. The Bills have trotted out a litany of head coaches and quarterbacks in hopes of capturing their first title since 1965, but to no avail. Not even close.
This season marks Buffalo’s second under Rex Ryan, who has both talent to work with and plenty of challenges to work through. The Bills may have finally found a franchise quarterback in Pro Bowl alternate Tyrod Taylor, now poised to begin his first campaign as a full-time starter after amassing 3,035 yards and 20 touchdowns a season ago.
The 27-year-old enters the 2016 slate with free agency — that ultimate incentive for players to outperform their peeks — looming large. Taylor will have a nice supporting cast, highlighted by Sammy Watkins on the outside and LeSean McCoy in the backfield.
But will it be enough?
Buffalo desperately needs Robert Woods and Charles Clay to step up. Last year, Woods racked up a meager 552 yards on 81 targets, while Clay notched 528 yards and three touchdowns. If those paces don’t improve, Taylor will be limited against good defenses that aim to curtail Watkins’ effectiveness.
After going 8-8 and making minimal changes in the offseason, the message from general manager Doug Whaley is clear: The current cast is good enough.
This puts even more pressure on Ryan, who was fired after six seasons with the New York Jets before coming to Buffalo last year. The Bills were supposed to produce the league’s best defense, but instead plummeted in the overall rankings from fourth to 19th over the course of the season. Ryan has to find a remedy for his, which may explain his decision to bring on brother Rob Ryan as an assistant.
Buffalo dumped Mario Williams and his cumbersome salary in the spring, replacing him with Clemson standout Shaq Lawson. Unfortunately, Lawson has since undergone shoulder surgery, which could force him to miss the first few months of the regular season. Without him, veteran Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes will need to carry the pass-rushing load.
In another offseason disappointment, All-Pro Marcell Dareus was suspended for the first four games of the season. Without Dareus, Buffalo’s vaunted front is considerably less fearsome. Dareus also plans on going to rehab following the suspension, hopefully able to turn his life choices around.
The Bills would be wise to lean on their young but very promising secondary. Buffalo has the talents of Stephon Gilmore and second-year man Ronald Darby patrolling the corners, making for a top-tier duo. Alongside Marcus Peters of the Kansas City Chiefs, Darby was the league’s best rookie corner, while Gilmore is also entering a contract year and will undoubtedly be seeking a new, lucrative deal.
With ample young talent and a hungry fan base, the time is now for Ryan and his squad. The Bills have to cash in on their potential, and finally become the football reality so many believe they can be. At some point, potential becomes a just fancier word for underachievement. Should the Bills miss the playoffs again, there could be wholesale changes — again — in Western New York.
Schedule
Week 1 – at Baltimore Ravens
Week 2 – New York Jets (Thurs.)
Week 3 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 4 – at New England Patriots
Week 5 – at Los Angeles Rams
Week 6 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 7 – at Miami Dolphins
Week 8 – New England Patriots
Week 9 – at Seattle Seahawks (Mon.)
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 12 – Oakland Raiders
Week 13 – at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 15 – Cleveland Browns
Week 16 – Miami Dolphins
Week 17 – at New York Jets
The middle of the schedule may well tell the tale of the 2016 Bills. Week 8 sees Tom Brady and the Patriots coming to Ralph Wilson Stadium, before Buffalo treks across the country for a primetime affair against Seattle.
The Bills do a have a nicely-timed bye week before going to play the Bengals and then returning home to face the vastly improved Raiders. Buffalo also has to feel good about the final three weeks, with the trio being, at least from a five-month distance, eminently winnable.
Draft class
Round 1 (19) – Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
Round 2 (41) – Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
Round 3 (80) – Adolphus Washington, NT, Ohio State
Round 4 (139) – Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
Round 5 (156) – Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas
Round 6 (192) – Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCU
Round 7 (218) – Kevon Seymour, CB, USC
With Lawson out for at least two more months following shoulder surgery in May, the Bills have to dampen expectations for this group. Indeed, the only player who appears ready to come in and contribute immediately is Ragland, a guy seemingly tailor-made for Rex Ryan’s downhill scheme.
Ragland should be a starter from day one, while Washington could also earn considerable playing time as a true nose. Beyond that, Buffalo will be hard-pressed to get much from this group in 2016. The class has long-term potential but not much in the way of immediate dividends.
Offseason moves
Acquired
None
Lost
Mario Williams, DE (MIA – 2 years, $16 million)
X-Factor
LeSean McCoy is going to make or break this offense. Last year, Buffalo general manager Doug Whaley shocked everyone on the eve of free agency by acquiring McCoy at the cost of inside linebacker Kiko Alonso. McCoy was then given a five-year, $40 million deal. At 27 years old, he should have been in his prime.
However, McCoy only played in 12 games last season, scoring five touchdowns and rushing for a mere 895 yards following a pair of 1,000-yard campaigns for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2013 and 2014.
If McCoy can’t get back to his former self, the Bills will struggle to score in a run-first offense.
Bottom Line
Buffalo is bound to hit some tough sledding in its quest to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. The Bills have talent for days, but there are only a few true difference-makers on the roster, and few secondary threats for Taylor to utilize beyond Sammy Watkins. And if McCoy isn’t great, the running game faces a potential productive crisis.
Ultimately, this group has the look of another 8-8 team under Ryan, who should be feeling ample heat — whether he likes it or not.