Saints season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

Drew Brees is the best player on the New Orleans Saints. He is also 37 years old. For the Saints, the time is now to make one finish push toward a second Super Bowl before Brees either moves on as a free agent after this season or retires before the end of the decade.

New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis seems hellbent on competing now, continually pushing salary cap problems into the future with constant restructuring of deals. Loomis also remains active in free agency, this year signing tight end Coby Fleener, linebacker James Laurinitis and defensive tackle Nick Fairley.

Eventually, Loomis is going to have to pay the piper for all of his salary cap maneuvers and when he does, it’s going to be ugly. For now, thought, the Saints are hoping to get back into the playoffs behind Brees and a revamped defense that is aiming to finish better than 32nd in the league as it did in 2015.

The biggest change in New Orleans was the firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan and the hiring of Dennis Allen to replace him. Allen, who spent parts of three seasons as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders, has been with the Saints before. Allen was an assistant under Sean Payton from 2006-10, earning a Super Bowl ring while working as the defensive backs coach. Oddly enough, this will only be Allen’s second year as a defensive coordinator, doing it back in 2011 with the Denver Broncos.

Allen will have a tough chore ahead of him. The Saints invested into the defensive side of the ball this offseason, drafting Sheldon Rankins with the 12th-overall pick. Unfortunately, the hulking defensive tackle broke his leg in training camp and will miss the start of the regular season. Inside linebacker Stephone Anthony is expected to be ready for Week 1, but also has been injured throughout portions of the preseason.

While the defense finds its barrings, it will be up to Brees and his mates to light up the scoreboard. Despite the trade that saw Kenny Stills get shipped to the Miami Dolphins, New Orleans still has ample playmakers. Running back Mark Ingram gained 4.6 yards per carry last season while second-year receiver Brandin Cooks caught 84 passes for a team-high 1,128 yards and eight touchdowns. Cooks is joined on the outside by Willie Snead, who was only 16 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard campaign.

The Saints also need production out of the tight end spot, which was vacated by the departure of Benjamin Watson, who signed with the Baltimore Ravens this spring. Without Watson, the Saints are leaning heavily on Fleener, who despite having Andrew Luck throughout his career, is yet to have an 800-yard season.

New Orleans has talent in certain areas but gaping holes in others. Brees can make up for some of those deficiencies, but it is asking too much of him to overcome what should be an improved but lacking defense. Another season around the .500 mark seems like a safe bet for the team from the Big Easy.

Schedule

Week 1 -Oakland Raiders
Week 2 – at New York Giants
Week 3 – Atlanta Falcons (Mon.)
Week 4 – at San Diego Chargers
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – Carolina Panthers
Week 7 – at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 8 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 9 – at San Francisco 49ers
Week 10 – Denver Broncos
Week 11 – at Carolina Panthers (Sun. night)
Week 12 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 13 – Detroit Lions
Week 14 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 15 – at Arizona Cardinals
Week 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 17 – at Atlanta Falcons

New Orleans has historically been brutal on the road, which makes the end of the schedule so challenging. The Saints are going to visit the Buccaneers before taking a long flight to play the Cardinals. The season then finishes with Atlanta, the biggest rival of them all.

Conversely, the docket sets up nicely at the beginning of the season. While the Raiders are much-improved, they come to the Superdome. New Orleans also gets to take on the Falcons at home with the road games both being winnable against the Giants and Chargers.

Draft class

Round 1 (12) – Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
Round 2 (47) – Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
Round 2 (61) – Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
Round 4 (120) – David Onyemata, DT, Canada
Round 7 (237) – Daniel Lasco, RB, California

This isn’t a big class, but Loomis might have pulled off some shrewd moves. Rankins was one of the highly-regarded defensive tackles in a loaded class, and he will plug in right away. Thomas could also be the replacement of Colston, although those are huge shoes to fill.

Bell is perhaps the steal of this class. New Orleans needs all kinds of help on defense and Bell can provide that both at corner and safety. The Ohio State product was supposed to go in the late first or early second round, but fell to the Saints at 61st-overall.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Coby Fleener, TE (5 years, $36 million)
Nick Fairley, DT (1 year, $3 million)
James Laurinaitis, ILB (3 years, $8.2 million)

Lost

Brandon Browner, CB (SEA – 1 year, $700,000)

X-Factor

Can the defense climb to average? This unit was one of the worst the NFL has ever seen last year, finishing dead last in yards allowed and doing so by a country mile. New Orleans was a mess under former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, so how much improvement can we expect in 2016?

Loomis went out and signed both Fairley and laurinaitis, two players who will contribute in the front seven. Factor in the addition of Rankins and the defense should be improved, but how much remains to be seen.

Bottom Line

As always, the question is whether Brees and Co. can put up enough points that even the Saints defense can’t sabotage the season. New Orleans is going to score points and win some games simply because it puts up 40+ times, but that’s no way to reach the playoffs.

New Orleans doesn’t have the defensive chops to beat out teams in the NFC like Carolina, Seattle, Arizona, Minnesota and Green Bay. The Saints will be exciting and make for some great highlight reels, but they will be hard-pressed to earn a postseason berth.