The Baltimore Ravens are narrow favorites for their Week 1 meeting against the Buffalo Bills. But the Ravens haven’t had the best luck in season-openers during recent years.
The Ravens find themselves three-point favorites at home, while the OVER/UNDER stands at 44.5, according to OddsShark. That opening line makes sense when you consider who the Bills will have missing in Week 1.
Specifically, Buffalo’s top two draft picks, edge-rusher Shaq Lawson and middle linebacker Reggie Ragland, are unavailable. Injury issues have robbed head coach Rex Ryan of the two rookies he was counting on to inspire a defensive revival, per CSN Mid-Atlantic‘s Clifton Brown.
To make matters worse, defensive tackle Marcell Dareus will also be sitting as part of a four-game suspension. The Ravens have to feel good about facing a depleted defense that was already a question mark headed into the new season.
Baltimore’s O’ floundered in 2015, but without quarterback Joe Flacco and wide receiver Steve Smith Snr. Flacco’s back, and so is versatile runner Justin Forsett.
Forsett’s a terrific receiver and can exploit Buffalo’s linebackers. Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is also one of the NFL‘s best at making running backs part of the passing game.
Buffalo’s best hope will be to keep Forsett and Co. off the field with their own dynamic rushing attack. Yet, it’s tough to believe LeSean McCoy will get on track against a mean defense led by sumo-sized tackle tandem Timmy Jernigan and Brandon Williams.
The real hope for the Bills comes from the Ravens losing their last three season-opening games. Buffalo is also tied at 3-3 in this series, according to Pro Football Reference. But the trend to keep an eye on at M&T Bank Stadium is the 5-0 record for the home team in the last five meetings, per OddsShark.
Another pattern to watch is how the points total has favored the UNDER in each of the last six meetings.
Expect the Ravens to maintain the trend for home teams in this head-to-head series. The UNDER will be threatened, though, if Flacco and Forsett are on form.