Bills at Ravens: Game preview, odds, prediction
By James Dudko
The Baltimore Ravens will begin their 2016 NFL season by hosting the Buffalo Bills and former defensive coordinator Rex Ryan in Week 1.
At 1:00 p.m. ET, the Ravens will meet the Bills at M&T Bank Stadium.
Losing records have been a rarity in Baltimore since John Harbaugh took over in 2008. In fact, 2015’s 5-11 finish represented the low point of the Harbaugh era.
Last season’s Ravens found themselves wrecked by injuries. Quarterback Joe Flacco and wideout Steve Smith Sr. both missed significant time on offense. Meanwhile, the defense regressed as Terrell Suggs played just one game.
In typical Ravens fashion, the rebuild has been all about the draft. General manager Ozzie Newsome used 11 picks to add playmakers on both sides of the ball.
The trenches look stronger, with Ronnie Stanley taking over at left tackle. Expect pass-rushers Kamalei Correa and Bronson Kaufusi to replenish an ageing front seven.
But it’s still the incumbents who will define these Ravens. Flacco’s return will boost an offense that can still rely on versatile running back Justin Forsett and wide receiver Kamar Aiken.
A healthy Smith will also augment the receiving corps. But the season-ending Achilles injury suffered by tight end Ben Watson is a blow. There’s now increased pressure on Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams to pick up the slack.
It’s a similar story on defense, where doubts about Elvis Dumervil’s recovery from foot surgery could hamper the pass rush. Still, the addition of savvy safety Eric Weddle will aid a secondary facing a tough challenge in Week 1.
The Bills may be a run-first offense on Ryan’s watch, but there’s no shortage of talented pass-catchers. Receivers Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, along with tight end Charles Clay, can expose any defense.
Odds
Line: BAL (-3)
Over/Under: 40
Still, Baltimore’s first priority will be stuffing a rushing attack led by LeSean McCoy. Fortunately, the Ravens defense boasts a formidable one-two punch in the form of house-sized D-tackles Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan.
The Bills were the best rushing team in the NFL a year ago, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman won’t be shy about keeping things on the ground. But Williams and Jernigan are a nightmare for blocking schemes, with both demanding constant double teams.
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If Williams and Jernigan are shut down, Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor will become the next target. His receivers are good enough to get the better of Baltimore’s suspect cornerbacks, so hitting Taylor early and often will be the key to the pass defense.
If Dumervil can’t go, Albert McClellan will get the start. So crafty defensive coordinator Dean Pees will need to get creative about bringing pressure.
The Ravens have become very effective with fire-zone blitz packages in recent seasons, and can confuse Taylor.
Of course, Ryan will try to do the same to Flacco. He was once a master of designing sophisticated pressure, but the Ryan blueprint failed the Buffalo defense in 2015.
Ravens’ OC Marc Trestman can exploit a favorable matchup by utilizing Forsett as a receiver against the Bills inside linebackers. It’s a group already weakened by losing rookie Reggie Ragland for the year.
Points will be at a premium early, but the Ravens are a good bet to eventually wear the Bills down on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Ravens 27, Bills 21