Dolphins at Patriots: Game preview, odds, and prediction
By Matt Kerns
The Dolphins head to Foxborough for each team’s first divisional matchup of the season. New England is coming off a huge 23-21 victory at Arizona last week.
All four AFC East teams will be in divisional games this week, as the Dolphins and Patriots will follow the Jets and the Bills. While the Dolphins have beaten the Pats at least once over the past three years, they haven’t made the playoffs since 2008, the last time the beat New England at Gillete Stadium. If the Dolphins have any hope of making the playoffs this year, they’ll need to get past New England.
In Week 1, the Dolphins put up a tough fight with the Seahawks, exchanging blows until the final drive of the game. We saw multiple new starters for the Dolphins on both sides of the ball, including newly acquired corner Byron Maxwell, middle linebacker Kiki Alonso, defensive end Mario Williams, and running back Arian Foster.
The secondary was the surprise of the game, as both corners Byron Maxwell and rookie Xavien Howard did a fine job in coverage for the most part of the game. Miami looks to have two high-quality safeties in strong safety Rashad Jones and free safety Isa Abdul-Quddus. Quddus earned a spot on PFF’s team of the week.
New England, meanwhile, snuck out of Phoenix with a well-earned W. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo showed he’s capable of leading this team, completing high percentage throws but also airing it out when the Cardinals defense permitted it.
Against the Dolphins’ sturdy secondary, expect a similar approach by the Pats offense: an early mix of short throws accompanied by a few deep shots when allowed will be the recipe for the offense. After just one week of the season, the Dolphins defensive line looked stout, albeit against a makeshift Seattle O-line. New Englands offensive line with a thick interior in guards Joe Thuney, and Ted Karras as well as center David Andrews.
Odds
Line: NE (-7)
Over/Under: 42
Dolphins running back Arian foster got off to a quick start against Seattle when he carried six times for 28 yards. But from there, it went south, as Foster finished with 38 yards on 13 attempts. In order to keep the Pats offense off the field, Foster will need an increased role in the offense but that may not be the case as Jay Ajayi will be active against the Pats after his outburst last week. If Foster’s struggles continue, Ajayi will be inserted in there real quick.
Arguably the Pats’ biggest asset on offense is tight end Rob Gronkowski. He was limited again in practice today, and is questionable for Sunday’s game. He was also listed as questionable last week throughout practice but didn’t make the trip to Arizona. If he does suit up, Gronk coupled with tight end Martellus Bennett could mean big trouble for Miami.
When employed in two tight end sets, Bennett and Gronk are a nightmare for opposing defenses. The two will eat up the middle seams of the field, gaining attention of the safeties and leaving one on one matchups on the outsides.
The Dolphins were able to pressure Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson using just their front four. They dropped their three linebackers in coverage and were stingy giving up intermediate to deep passes. They allowed Wilson to check it down to receivers Tyler Locket or Doug Baldwin and came up and wrapped up.
Arizona proved to be a big test for Jimmy G and he passes. We’ll see if he can put together a string of games here early in the season.