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Chase for the Sprint Cup Race No. 3: Dover preview and prediction

By Ted Fleming

Oct 4, 2015; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) races down the back straightaway during the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
Oct 4, 2015; Dover, DE, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) races down the back straightaway during the AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O /
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It is the last chance for title hopefuls to advance into the Round of 12 in the first phase of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The bottom four could see their Chase season come to an end.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway this weekend and the Monster Mile could spell doom for four drivers who will be eliminated from championship consideration once the checkered flag drops on the Citizen Soldier 400 on Sunday.

That foursome – Jamie McMurray (-5 behind Kyle Larson in 12th place), Austin Dillon (-5), Tony Stewart (-11) and Chris Buescher (-30) – desperately need a good finish and/or some help from those above them in the standing, but for Buescher, the situation is more dire as he needs to pull of the kind of stunning win he had in Pocono to qualify for the Chase in the first place.

“I hate to say it like this, but it’s kind of nice to be able to go into a race and just worry about doing the best you can and getting that finish and being able to take chances and not worry about if it doesn’t work out,” he said about having nothing to lose on Sunday. “It’s the racing that you’re able to do at the beginning of the year before you’re too worried about the points leading up to the Chase.  We’ve been in a lot of points racing situations over the last two years and to be able to have a handful where we can go out and, like we said, we don’t really have anything to lose here.”

Buescher knows Dover fairly well because he won the May 2015 Xfinity race at the track on his way to winning the series championship.

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McMurray knows what is on the line. He is right behind his teammate at Chip Ganassi Racing, Kyle Larson in 12th, and it is very possible that the two-car team could advance or be eliminated. Last year, he was in a very similar position and he hopes that this time around the results are better.

“Last year was a lot of fun, getting to race with the No. 88 (Dale Earnhardt Jr.) and knowing that I had to finish ahead of him in order to advance to the next round,” he said. “He was ahead on one restart and I’d be ahead on the next, so that was a fun battle.

“As far as this year, you don’t know until you get on the track. You don’t know the circumstances, how they’re going to play out. I think the Chase hasn’t had the drama that it normally does to this point, so if you’re a guy on the outside looking in trying to advance to the next round you’re hoping that it’s a fairly dramatic race and that something big happens with somebody up front that’s going to shake it up a little. It can happen for sure here.”

Larson will be making his sixth career start at Dover and it is his best track as far as average finish at 6.2 which just happens to be the best of any Cup driver with at least five starts. On the flip side, Tony Stewart has 34 Dover races under his belt and has an average finish of 14.1 although he has three wins, the last one coming on June 2, 2013. The following year he finished seventh, but has not had a top-10 since.

TRACK INFO:
Location – Dover, DE
Statistics – 1.00 mile concrete
Track Record: 2013 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (22.243 sec., 161.849 mph)

CHASE BREAKDOWN:
Segment 1 – Chicagoland (COMPLETED), New Hampshire (COMPLETED, Dover)
Segment 2 – Charlotte, Kansas, Talladega
Segment 3 – Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix
Segment 4 – Homestand-Miami Speedway

PREDICTION:
Instead of looking for the winner, this week’s pick becomes picks, as in who will miss advancing to the Round of 12. Chris Buescher needs a miracle and will fall short. Tony Stewart has had little success at Dover in his last four trips to this track and his final race at the Monster Mile will be his last in the Chase. The other two misses are a bit more complicated because on a mile track there will be a lot of bumping and banging putting someone out early. Austin Dillon will have a good day, but will not have enough to add enough points to move into the top 12 and Kyle Larson will lose out to Jamie McMurray simply because of his experience under enormous pressure.

(NOT SO) LONG SHOT – FOR THE WIN:
A ford and Toyota have already won in the first two races so a Chevy will take its place in the winner’s circle this weekend. And the winner is?  Jimmie Johnson.

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