Bills at Dolphins: Game preview, odds, and prediction
By Matt Kerns
After both picking up wins last week, the Buffalo Bills (4-2) will head to Miami and prepare for their divisional foe Miami Dolphins (2-4) this week.
Miami was able to escape with a win against the Steelers last week who were banged up on both sides of the ball and lost Ben Roethlisberger in the first half to injury. Call it flukey, call it whatever you want, but the Dolphins came out victorious.
Perhaps the most impressive performance from their game last week was the Dolphins offensive line’s performance. They earned the game ball in my opinion, as they not only kept the pocket clean for Ryan Tannehill, but also emerged in the run game to open up outside holes for running back Jay Ajayi.
The former Boise State star rushed for 25 times Sunday, picking up 204 yards and two touchdowns. Going inside the data, 15 of his 25 carriers were to the outside of the line, meaning off the tackle or tight end. On 15 outside runs, he picked up 158 yards averaging 10.5 yards per touch. Both of his rushing touchdowns were also on the edge.
Defensively, the Bills have managed to stop the run much better than they did a year ago. Last week against San Francisco, the Bills gave 133 yards on the ground, which is the most yards any team has rushed for against the Bills all year. 66 of those yards were from the legs of Colin Kaepernick, and came late in the game when the game was clearly over.
While Buffalo is giving up 103 rushing yards per game, they are only giving up 78 of those yards to running backs. And while the Dolphins enjoyed monumental success on the ground last week, it won’t be easy for them to repeat it this week.
Left guard Laremy Tunsil left the Pittsburgh game early after sustaining an injury. He wasn’t listed on the Dolphins injury report yesterday. Asking the Dolphins offensive is like asking a drunk guy with a glass bottle to not break it. It’s inevitable. Whether it’s Tunsil or tackle Branden Albert, or center Mike Pouncey.
Odds
Line: Buff -3
OVER/UNDER: 44
Tannehill had his best game of the season by far last week. Miami’s offense was on the field for a whole 13 minutes more than the Steelers did. Buffalo runs a ball control offense led by quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He’s not flashy, but he can make some great throws.
Most importantly, Taylor is efficient in offense that doesn’t require him to throw 30+ times per game each week. His playing style is tailored to this offense where LeSean McCoy gets 25 touches per game. The Dolphins are giving up 147 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per rush. This matchup doesn’t bode well for them at all.
Prediction: Buffalo 27, Miami 19