Records are made to be broken
Records hold a lot of value in the NBA. Whether it’s Kareem Abdul-Jabbar scoring more points than anyone else throughout his career or John Stockton having a career like we’ll never see again, players are always compared to the ones who came before them. Some of those records are set to stand forever — will anyone really average over 30 points per game like Michael Jordan did? — while others could be broken in the coming seasons.
Games
The retirement of Minnesota Timberwolves legend Kevin Garnett throws a monkey wrench in the potential for someone breaking Robert Parish’s all-time games played mark. Parish, currently sitting at 1,611, was challenged by Garnett in recent years but a string of injuries and now retirement locks The Big Ticket 149 games behind Parish. In a perfect world, Garnett would play two more seasons to nab the record but after watching his play deteriorate over the last two seasons, that seemed an impossibility.
Keep an eye on Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki who is only 271 games away from the All-Time mark. If Dirk plays a full 82-game slate for the next four years, he’ll easily break the record. The problem: his current goal is to simply fulfill the three-year contract he signed this offseason. Others to show up in the top-30 are Paul Pierce (who announced this as his final NBA season), Andre Miller (currently a free agent), Jason Terry and Vince Carter. Terry and Carter haven’t said publicly if this will be their final seasons and Miller isn’t currently linked with an NBA team. Garnett may have been our generation’s best chance at topping this record, for now and for the next handful of years, it will remain with Parish.
Minutes played
Yet again, another longevity record that could have been topped by Garnett. This one is a little less realistic as his minutes plummeted in Brooklyn and Minnesota. Garnett is 7,028 total minutes from leader Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (57,446). Given Garnett’s final five seasons in the league accumulated just 6,503 total minutes, this was an unrealistic and impossible hill for The Big Ticket to climb.
The aforementioned Dirk Nowitzki is a mere 10,197 away from Jabbar. While he will play more seasons in the league and likely continue accumulating big minutes, getting over 10,000 in the next three seasons seems like too tough a task, even for Dirk. Or, hey, who knows, maybe he plays 40+ minutes a game in each of those seasons… then he’ll only be 197 away.
Three–point field goals
Jason Terry, the NBA’s greatest three-point shooter ever… has a nice ring to it? Yeah, it really doesn’t, sorry. Don’t worry, while The Jet is currently third in all-time three-point field goals (804 away from all-time leader Ray Allen), there’s no chance of him taking the top spot. Terry would have to average his career-high (172 in 2001-02) for nearly four-and-a-half seasons to get the record.
We should keep an eye out for two players in particular: Kyle Korver and Stephen Curry. Korver is only 1,086 away and if we use the 158 he made last season (a down year by Korver standards), it’ll only take him seven seasons.
Okay, nevermind.
More realistically, Steph Curry has finally found himself in the Top 20, jumping into 19th place last season — only 1,380 away from Allen. As unrealistic as it may be, Curry will only need a little over three-and-a-half seasons at last year’s pace to become the all-time leader. Chances are, Curry won’t be hitting 400+ three’s a season many more times. Still, if we use Curry’s 2014-15 output (a now-modest, but still all-time leading 286), it will take just under five seasons for Curry to become the all-time leader. Barring injury or a change to NBA rules, Curry should break this record easily.
Offensive rebounds
The active leader in offensive rebounds was Elton Brand, until he announced his retirement last week. Given Brand only brought in nine (yes, just nine in 17 games) offensive rebounds last season, Moses Malone’s all-time mark of 6,731 wasn’t really in danger. Should Brand have continued in the league for another 380 seasons, averaging nine offensive rebounds… well, that’s a different story.
On a more serious note, keep an eye out for Dwight Howard, currently 24th and only 3,635 away from Moses. That’s tall timber, especially with an increasingly balky back but if Howard averages 238 offensive boards (his total last season) for 15 more sea… nevermind.
Dammit, Moses.
Defensive rebounds
Last year in this very same space, I projected Kevin Garnett to take the defensive rebounds crown from Utah Jazz legend Karl Malone “somewhere between 12-15 games”. Whoops. It took 22 games but it’s all the same. Garnett now has a 47-rebound lead over Malone and a 221-rebound gap between himself and No. 3, the also-recently-retired Tim Duncan.
Nowitzki is lurking in the shadows, currently sitting comfortably in 8th place, 2,331 rebounds away from the top spot. Given Nowitzki’s five-year pace (roughly 401 defensive boards per year), Dirk could have the record if he played 5-6 more seasons. Probably not happening.
Do keep an eye out, however, for Dwight Howard who in 16th place just 3,400 rebounds away. If Howard averages at least 550 rebounds over the next six seasons (certainly realistic), he’ll become the king of the defensive rebound.
Assists
Here’s how impressive John Stockton’s all-time leading mark of 15,806 is: Chris Paul, currently 11th all-time at 7,688 and one of the NBA’s best passers, would need to average 800 assists per year over the next ten years to ellipse Stockton. As great a passer as Paul is, he’s only topped 800 three times in his career, last in 2014-15. Using his 738 total from last season as a barometer, it’ll take Paul exactly 11 seasons to break the record. Somehow I don’t see 40-year-old Chris Paul keeping that production up. Then again, Stockton had over 600 assists in his 40-year-old season, so who knows?
Steals
Unlike his assist mark, Stockton’s spot atop this list — 3 ,265 all-time steals — does have a chance of being toppled but it won’t be easy. Garnett was the active leader at 1,406 behind Stockton but his retirement once again gives us Paul vying for Stockton’s crown.
Paul could do it but it’s going to take an incredible amount of durability to get there. Using Paul’s 152 steals from last season, it will take the Clippers point guard a little over nine seasons to become the all-time leader.
Blocks
Philadelphia 76ers big man Elton Brand only needed 2,002 more blocks to become the all-time leader. But again, retired.
Brand had eight blocks in only 17 games last season. If we extrapolate that to a full slate of 82 games, Brand would have needed 52 more seasons to take out Hakeem Olajuwon as the all-time blocks leader.
But seriously, this is a record that has very little chance of ever getting beaten. Even realistic options like Dwight Howard (21st all-time) needs to average 200 blocks over his next 10 seasons. His career high is 231 and that came all the way back in 2008-09 when Howard was a much different player.
Total points
Before he retired, there was a real possibility of Karl Malone becoming the all-time total points leader. Unfortunately his Lakers tenure and career ended on a sour note and The Mailman finished 1,459 points behind all-time leader Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Kobe Bryant flirted with the record but ultimately finished his career 4,744 away (it would’ve taken Kobe returning to his peak scoring output and playing three more seasons to do it).
Now we look to the next wave. Dirk Nowitzki sits 6th all-time, a little under 9,000 points away. Dirk’s game is obviously slowing down but in both of the last two seasons, he topped 1,300 points. Using this pace, Dirk could have the record in 6-7 seasons. So that’s not happening.
What about LeBron James? He’ll only need a little over 1,400 points per season over the next eight to become the all-time leader. He’s done that (and then some) each season he’s been in the NBA. Even if we use his production from his first return season to Cleveland, an admittedly “down” year for LeBron, he’ll have the record at some point in the next 6-7 years. Stay tuned.
Field goal percentage
Last season, I projected that Tyson Chandler would only need to maintain his five-year average (64.8 percent) to break Artis Gilmore’s record easily. Chandler shot 58.3 percent from the field, his worst mark in six years. Needless to say, Chandler didn’t break the record.
Instead, Tyson fell to third because a behemoth by the name of DeAndre Jordan went and shot 70.3 percent from the field — his second consecutive year eclipsing 70 percent — and nabbed the record. Given this was DeAndre’s fourth consecutive year leading the league in field goal percentage, there’s a distinct possibility he holds onto this record not only for a few more years, but maybe forever. At exactly 67 percent now, DeAndre merely has to stay above 60 percent to keep the record over Gilmore (59.9%).
The good news: Jordan has a tendency to shoot above 60 percent in a season so much so he’s done it every year in the league. Barring some unforeseen Josh Smith-esque desire to become an outside shooter, Jordan could remain the field goal percentage king for a long time.
Three-point percentage
Curry, as you may have heard, had a pretty okay season last year, shooting over 45 percent on threes for the third time in his career.
Curry is only one percent away from topping his head coach Steve Kerr’s all-time mark 45.4%.
Free throw percentage
Speaking of Curry, The Chef only needed to average 90.9 percent from the free throw line last year to become the all-time leader in this category. Of course, he shot 90.8 percent. What a bum.
Points-per-game
Kevin Durant’s decision to join the Golden State Warriors all but guaranteed that Michael Jordan will continue to be the NBA’s all-time leading per game scorer.
Only 2.72 points-per-game away from Jordan’s all-time-leading 30.12 mark, Durant had a realistic chance at the crown… if he stayed in Oklahoma City or at the very least moved to a franchise that wasn’t already loaded with four dynamic scorers. Sure, the Warriors could really break the NBA and Durant can keep his 27.4 points per game average steady but that’s highly unlikely.
LeBron James, currently fifth at 27.19 points per game should continue to lose ground as he ages. Carmelo Anthony (13th all-time at 24.94 points per game) has probably reached his scoring peak and should see that number fall more as Kristaps Porzingis becomes a bigger part of the Knicks offense.
Interesting enough, Curry (nestled at 25th all-time) may have been a contender to ascend the list but the sharing that is sure to occur between he and Durant will limit both of their potentials.
Assists per game
One of the more interesting leaderboard races moving forward, there are a number of current players, still in their prime, with a chance to beat Magic Johnson’s all-time mark.
Chris Paul: 1.24 assists per game away. Paul has averaged over 10 assists per game the last three seasons and should bring his current 9.95 assists per game above the 10+ threshold this season. He still has a little ways to go to beat out Magic’s 11.19. As Paul ages and scoring becomes less apart of his repertoire, we could see him become a real contender.
John Wall: Wall currently sits at 8.96 APG but has averaged 10+ the last two seasons. He should move up the leaderboards quite a bit as he finally enters his prime.
Rajon Rondo: Two years ago I would’ve never expected Rondo to becoming a realistic contender to this, regardless of his elite passing skill. That was until he averaged a league-leading 11 assists per game last season in Sacramento. Now apart of the Chicago Bulls with two bona fide scoring threats in Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade and a coach that wants to run, Rondo is a very realistic possibility to contend for Magic’s all-time record over the next couple of seasons.
PER
I jumped the gun last year calling LeBron a “near lock to take the top spot in the PER leaderboards”. James had to maintain his 29.0 five-year PER average to topple Jordan. Instead, he only slightly improved on his 25.9 mark from the year prior (27.5). Now there’s a distinct possibility we’ve seen the last of James’ as a contender for this mark. Entering his physical decline phase, James needs to get his PER back to late Cleveland/early Miami levels to have a chance at Jordan’s all-time mark (27.91).
Total rebound percentage
Could DeAndre Jordan have a real shot at Dennis Rodman’s all-time total rebound percentage mark?
Probably not, but he’s making it interesting. After leading the league with 24.5 percent two seasons ago, Jordan fell back to 22.2 percent, a number that will help raise his current percentage but leaves him still far from Rodman’s 23.44 percent.
Dwight Howard, currently in third place behind Reggie Evans, is still 2.8 percent behind Rodman and has seen his numbers fall in this category, averaging just a little over 20 percent last season.
VORP
Hey, I finally got something right! Last year I called LeBron a mortal lock for becoming the all-time leader and he did it… easily. LeBron now holds the top spot very comfortably (+4.17) over Jordan.
The real fun will be seeing just how far he can take that gap as he’ll continue to accumulate over the remainder of his career. Aside from LeBron, the only other active player with a chance to make a splash in this leaderboard is Chris Paul, currently 17th all-time.
Unfortunately for fans of The Big Ticket, Garnett will finish fourth all-time (exactly where he was at the beginning of last season). Garnett is still 8.55 VORP away from third place all-time Karl Malone and had no realistic shot.
Tim Duncan finishes his storied career sixth all-time just 4.22 VORP away from fifth place Charles Barkley.