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NFL Playoffs 2016: AFC Wild Card race Week 12

By Casey Pazzalia

BUFFALO, NY - OCTOBER 16: Head coach Rex Ryan of the Buffalo Bills and his brother coach Rob Ryan watch from the side lines during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at New Era Field on October 16, 2016 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Michael Adamucci/Getty Images)
BUFFALO, NY - OCTOBER 16: Head coach Rex Ryan of the Buffalo Bills and his brother coach Rob Ryan watch from the side lines during the second half against the San Francisco 49ers at New Era Field on October 16, 2016 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Michael Adamucci/Getty Images) /
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With 11 weeks in the books, the AFC Playoff race is starting to get very interesting.

If the NFL Playoffs were to start today, the AFC would look a lot different than most preseason predictions.

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Oakland Raiders
  3. Houston Texans
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. Kansas City Chiefs
  6. Denver Broncos

The Patriots at 8-2 would win the AFC East for the eighth straight time. Oakland, also at 8-2, would win the AFC West for the first time since 2002. Despite losing on Monday Night Football in Week 11, the Texans would win the AFC South. Finally, the Ravens at 5-5, would win the tiebreaker over the Steelers for the AFC North crown.

In a strange twist, the two AFC Wild Card spots would both go to teams out of the same division. The Chiefs and Broncos, who both are 7-3, would come out of the AFC West to claim the last two spots.

Although this playoff picture would be sufficient, there is still a number of teams still in the hunt for the 2016 AFC Playoffs.

AFC teams with good playoff chances:

According to FootballOutsiders.com, these are the AFC teams (not currently in) who have over 15% chance of making the playoffs.

  1. Pittsburgh 57.6%
  2. Miami 55.5%
  3. Indianapolis 33.5%
  4. Buffalo 22.5%
  5. Tennessee 16.6%

Out of the AFC East, both the Miami Dolphins (6-4) and Buffalo Bills (5-5) have life. It’s not likely that the Patriots will falter down the stretch, leaving them both hoping for a Wild Card spot. After winning five straight games, the Dolphins have tons of momentum going into the stretch run. Making things even brighter for them is there Week 12 matchup with the lowly 49ers.

The Bills have been hot and cold, stringing together a winning streak of four games and also a losing streak of three games. Buffalo fans should have confidence in their coach, Rex Ryan, who has plenty of experience in the AFC playoffs. When he was with the Jets, he led them to consecutive AFC Championship games.

The Steelers (5-5) have hopes for another AFC North division title. Football Outsiders actually has them with better postseason odds than current leader, Baltimore. A Wild Card spot for Pittsburgh seems unlikely, both Denver and Kansas City are two games ahead of them in the standings.

The AFC South is wide open, both the Colts (5-5) and the Titans (5-6) can overthrow an inconsistent Houston team. Again, with the AFC South so strong this year, a Wild Card spot for either team seems unlikely.

The strong AFC West already has three teams in, leaving the Chargers (4-6) on the outside looking in. Barring a hefty winning streak by San Diego, coupled with many other teams losing, it’s looking like the Chargers are done. Looking back on the season, San Diego will regret losing three games straight by four points or less.

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AFC teams likely eliminated:

According to FootballOutsiders.com, these AFC teams have less than 15% chance at earning a 2016 playoff bid.

  1. Cincinnati 10.1%
  2. San Diego 3.2%
  3. Jacksonville 0.5%
  4. New York 0.0%
  5. Cleveland 0.0%

Coming up in Week 12, every team will be in action throughout the week. For teams hoping to secure a playoff spot, every game from here on out is important. Two games to look out for, the Steelers at Colts and Chiefs at Broncos, have direct playoff implications.

On Thanksgiving, the Steelers head to Indianapolis in the night game on NBC. Andrew Luck is questionable for the game with a concussion, although it is believed he will play.

On Sunday Night Football, Kansas City will head to Denver in primetime.  Although both teams look like they will make the playoffs, the winner will be a step closer to overtaking Oakland for the AFC West division title.

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