Supply and demand: Evaluating the Paul Millsap trade market
By John Buhler
The Atlanta Hawks have been a staple in the Eastern Conference Playoffs for the last nine years. After some summer transitions the Hawks started this season surprisingly hot and have now bounced back from a rough patch in the end of November to climb to 18-16 on the season — fifth place in the East. However, the Hawks are probably not a real threat to win the Eastern Conference and it’s getting to be that time of the year where the trade rumors start to fly.
The Hawks went through this ordeal last year with point guard Jeff Teague and center Al Horford, but didn’t end up moving either during the season. Among other rumors, Teague and point guard Dennis Schroder were supposedly dangled in potential deals with the Philadelphia 76ers. Rebuilding Philadelphia was in dire of a starting-level point guard. Atlanta had two in Teague and Schroder, but wanted a first-round pick and a warm body in return. A first round pick likely seemed like too high a price to pay and the deal fizzled.
Horford reportedly drew interest from several teams including the Boston Celtics. The rumors were on-going throughout the season — Celtics general manager Danny Ainge coveted Horford in the frontcourt but was not willing to give Atlanta a first-round pick and either a Jae Crowder or a Marcus Smart in return. Boston opted to wait until 2016 NBA free agency to make its best pitch to Horford last summer.
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Atlanta did eventually trade Teague last summer in a three-team deal with the Indiana Pacers and the Utah Jazz involving point guard George Hill and a No. 12 overall pick that became small forward Taurean Prince. Horford proved too pricey for Atlanta’s taste. The Hawks didn’t want to offer him the max, so he took a maximum contract with the Celtics.
With the Hawks again stuck in that awkward middle ground in the Eastern Conference, and no obvious path to the next tier, they are reportedly shopping sharpshooter Kyle Korver, wing defender Thabo Sefolosha, and All-Star power forward Paul Millsap.
Millsap is the best trade asset Atlanta has, but figuring out what would it take for the Hawks to part ways with him is tricky. There wouldn’t appear to be a slew of viable trade partners for the Hawks. Millsap will likely opt out of the final year of his contract at the end of this season, whether or not he is still in Atlanta. A team that trades for him would have a chance at resigning him but at a much higher cost with the salary cap continuing to rise. There are also no guarantees that he would be more than a single-year rental.
The most obvious team that Millsap has been linked to is the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are having a phenomenal year but they don’t look ready to get through the Cleveland Cavaliers without an upgrade somewhere. Adding Millsap would give the Raptors more depth in the frontcourt, another defender to throw at LeBron James, and the ability to make their rotations more versatile.
However, Toronto may not be willing to shake up their roster to acquire Millsap, especially the uncertainty about his long-term future. Role players like Patrick Patterson, Norman Powell, or Cory Joseph could go to Atlanta along with a future first-round pick for Millsap. However, that removes some other significant pieces from Toronto’s rotation and presents the possibility of subtraction by addition. That also may be far less than Atlanta is hoping to receive in reutnr.
Another contending team that might want Millsap would be Cleveland, who is looking for any edge they can find in their quest to take out the Golden State Warriors again. Kevin Love for Millsap works financially and theoretically offers a benefit to both teams. Love would play more of his natural role of power forward in Atlanta. Millsap would give the Cavaliers more bite defensively without sacrificing too much on offense. But again, is Cleveland really willing to rock the boat on anything less than a sure thing?
Teams like the Denver Nuggets and the Orlando Magic could have the assets that Atlanta would covet in return for Millsap. However, do the Nuggets or Magic really want another frontcourt player? Millsap would be the best player on either the Nuggets or Magic, but he would be a mid-season rental at best. The odds of him resigning on either team seem low considering they are still in the process of rebuilding. Almost-contenders like the Memphis Grizzlies or the Oklahoma City Thunder could get involved but it’s hard to see an offer that would entice Atlanta.
Lastly, there are two teams that might miss the Western Conference Playoffs that could put together the offer Atlanta would want in exchange for Millsap: the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers.
Atlanta would probably ask for Zach LaVine or Kris Dunn, as both Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns could not be more off the table in any trade discussions. Portland would be a great fit for Millsap. He’d be the frontcourt star the Trail Blazers crave to score and defend. However, the Hawks would probably be looking for a player like CJ McCollum. In both cases, it may be too much of a stretch to ask Minnesota or Portland to give up a talented young piece for an All-Star who doesn’t get them over the top and may not stay beyond this season.
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Realistically, Atlanta will only entertain high-value trade offers for Millsap. The city, team, and organization adore the guy. He likes playing for the Hawks, as he has had his best four seasons as a professional in Atlanta playing for Mike Budenholzer.
While Toronto and Portland could be potential trade destinations for Millsap, it seems just as likely that Millsap stays put. Atlanta might be willing to move on from Millsap, but his value to them might not line up with the deals they can actually expect to receive..