Nylon Calculus: Are the Minnesota Timberwolves still missing Kevin Garnett?
Before the season began, the Timberwolves were a popular sleeper pick to be vastly improved and perhaps even challenge for a playoff spot. Instead, through 24 games, they were sitting at 6-18, a short step away from the NBA basement. What happened?
The problem hasn’t been the offense. The Timberwolves’ offensive rating of 108.7 points scored per 100 possessions is actually respectable, 12th in the NBA. As I spoke about on The Howl podcast in December, the problem has been the defense. The Timberwolves’ defensive rating of 110.4 points allowed per 100 possessions is terrible, currently 25th out of 30 teams. These rankings are almost spot-on with where the team was last season (12th with an offensive rating of 106.5, 28th with a defensive rating of 110.1), and though the offense is much improved from two seasons ago, the defense hasn’t changed much since even the 2015 season (30th with defensive rating of 112.2).
The Timberwolves defense should have been better this year, based on two factors — new coach Tom Thibodeau had a track record of defensive excellence and this current group of young players had already shown that they could play lockdown defense over the past two seasons, at least when on the court with Kevin Garnett.
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The second point, of course, is what ties in with the concept of Garnett’s absence affecting the current team. While the Timberwolves’ defense has been in the league basement over the past two seasons (average defensive rating of 111.2 points allowed per 100 possessions), they performed MUCH better with Garnett on the court. Per 82games.com:
KG on, defensive rating = 98.4 points allowed per 100 possessions
KG off, defensive rating = 113.5 points allowed per 100 possessions
KG on, defensive rating = 99.8 points allowed per 100 possessions
KG off, defensive rating = 112.9 points allowed per 100 possessions
Garnett was playing extremely short minutes, over a small number of games, making this a small sample size, but, Garnett was playing pretty much exclusively with the Timberwolves starters, against the opponents’ starters. Which means that he was leading (defensively) the unit against the best line-ups that the opponents had to offer.
The best team defensive rating in the NBA in 2014-15 was 101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, while the worst was 112.2 points allowed per100 possessions. The best defensive rating in the NBA in 2016 was 99.0 points allowed per 100 possessions, while the worst was 111.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. So, for the brief minutes that Garnett played with the Timberwolves starters, against the opponents’ starters, the Wolves of 2015 and 2016 performed like the BEST defense in the NBA. But as soon as he left the court, they performed like the WORST defense in the NBA.
At that point in his career, Garnett was more of a coach on the floor than the athletic monster he had been at his peak. This suggested that those same Wolves that Garnett was leading to outstanding defensive marks are physically and mentally capable of playing outstanding defense. They just needed outstanding direction to do so.
Since Thibodeau is widely considered to be the best defensive coach in the NBA, the theory was that Thibs could teach the young Wolves to play like they did when Garnett was on the floor, all the time. In his last two coaching stops, Thibs’ defenses improved by 6.1 percent from the season before his arrival. Based on last year’s Timberwolves defensive ratings, that would have projected the current Wolves to a defensive rating of 103.4 (which would currently be good for best in the NBA).
Now, this obviously isn’t what has happened. At least, not for most of the season to date. But if we look at the last several games, perhaps a corner is being turned. Through the first 24 games of the season, the Wolves’ team defensive rating (using their then-pace of 95.1 possessions/game, per Basketball-Reference) was 112.8 points allowed/100 possessions.
However, in their last 11 games, the team defensive rating has lowered to 107.8 points allowed per 100 possessions. Not coincidentally, the Wolves’ margin of victory through those first 24 games was -3.4, while in the last 11 games it is +2.1. There are currently 10 teams in the NBA with a season-long margin of victory of 2.0 or higher, and all 10 would be comfortably in the playoffs if the season ended today.
Perhaps Thibs can and is coaching the young Wolves up to his defensive level, but it’s a slow process. With Garnett on the court, it was like there was a tutor on-hand walking the baby Wolves through the test. Without him, however, they had to learn the long way what Professor Thibs was trying to teach them.
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If so, perhaps the most recent 11 games is more representative of what this group of Wolves will ultimately end up looking like the Thibodeau era. I don’t expect that they will continue to be lights out defensively without pause for the rest of the season…but perhaps we’ll start seeing less of the self-check defense and more instances of the KG-level unit. Their defense has improved significantly already, and if they continue to improve at this pace they still have an outside shot at being competitive for that eighth playoff spot out West as soon as this year.