NBA Mock Draft 2017, Week 18: Jayson Tatum to Orlando
By Chris Stone
New order, new destinations. This is our latest mock 2017 NBA Draft.
The dynamics of the modern NBA are shifting. More and more teams are downsizing by playing wings at power forward and relegating traditional big men to the bench. The changing demand for frontcourt players has meant that wings — especially those that can play both ends off the floor — have become the most valuable commodity in basketball. It’s a shift that will ultimately require rethinking the value of prospects in draft discussions. Eight of the 30 prospects in this mock project to primarily play either power forward or center and even that number may be too high.
To come up with this week’s order, I’ve used FiveThirtyEight’s season-long projections, which are based off of 50,000 simulations of the season, and have not made any adjustments to the draft lottery. All eligible players were considered and no prospects were excluded based on expectations that they will return to school.
Here’s a look at the latest projected first round.
Markelle Fultz
PG, Washington
Fultz averaged 23.2 points, 5.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds as a freshman, numbers that haven’t been seen in college basketball for at least 20 years. He is already an elite prospect in two categories — pick-and-roll offense and shooting off the dribble — that are imperative for NBA lead guards. If those skills translate, he has the potential to be a franchise-changing point guard. Fultz is creative on the ball, both with his passing and with his ball-handling. He can finish at the rim and is a capable 3-point shooter.
Defensively, Fultz has the size at 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan to be good, but he never really showed the necessary effort level in college to be elite. At worst, his size will allow him to be hidden against the worst perimeter player on an opposing team. Plus, even with those effort lapses, he still averaged 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40 minutes.