The Next Generation: Myles Turner
By Jeff Siegel
Every season the draft brings a fresh infusion of talent to the NBA. In theory this is an even, steady process. In practice, hindsight and historical perspective show that there are borders and boundaries — talent doesn’t just arrive in the NBA, it arrives in generational waves. Sometimes we can’t see these aesthetic dividing lines for decades, sometimes you simply can’t miss them.
The present day NBA appears to be on the cusp of welcoming a remarkable new generation to its forefront — players who are not just incredible but incredibly unique. Players who will not just excel but transform the roles and responsibilities of basketball players as we understand them. Over the course of this week, The Step Back will be examining many of the players who could figure prominently in The Next Generation. Not every player we turn our attention to is destined to be a star, but all could play a role in defining the future of the NBA. Read the whole series here.
The Next Generation: Myles Turner
Myles Turner gets lost in the national conversation about the best young bigs, even within in his own draft class. Being drafted behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis will do that. Towns is more explosive and efficient offensively and Porzingis already has a highlight reel longer than most centers in the league. Add in the fact that Turner plays in Indiana and it’s easy to understand why he flies under the radar.
The reality is that Turner, drafted No. 11 overall in 2015, does fall a step or two behind Towns and Porzingis. He’s the best defender of the trio, but not by enough to make up for what he lacks on the other end. Towns is an all-around offensive machine, the type of superstar who can single-handedly prop up an entire offense on his own. Porzingis stretches out his game to the 3-point line and has shown skills with the ball that would take Turner years to develop. While Turner grades out as a more effective overall defender, Porzingis boasts better rim protection numbers, the most important characteristic of a dominant defender at the center position.
However, there’s a reason that Turner gets compared to Towns and Porzingis, instead of guys like Frank Kaminsky and Trey Lyles, drafted No. 9 and No. 12, respectively. Turner, for his draft slot and what was expected out of him coming out of Texas, has already blown past most projections and looks like he’ll be worthy of a maximum extension at the end of his rookie contract. The Pacers got a steal in Turner and will reap the benefits for years. Oh yeah, and he’s younger than both Towns and Porzingis.
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Offensively, Turner is almost wholly dependent on his teammates to get him the ball in situations that accentuate his skills. He’s not an isolation player and he’s not a much of a post-up threat. When the Pacers do throw him the ball in the post, he’s fairly one-dimensional; he doesn’t have a trustworthy left hand, so defenders can camp out on his left shoulder, knowing he’ll almost always go to his favorite right-hand jump hook. Developing a lefty hook, a fade, or any other counter would be a nice addition for Turner, but not one that, in this day and age of the NBA, needs to be his primary focus. Down the line, there might be room for Turner at Hakeem Olajuwon’s famous summer big man school.
Where Turner thrives is in the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop, taking advantage of the attention his teammates draw. He’s been consistently in the top half of the league this year in roll-man efficiency this year, expertly mixing up rolling hard to the front of the rim and popping out for a mid-range jumper that has served him well in the early part of his career. He’s got great touch on his jumper and is able to get it off in a variety of circumstances, ranging from a straightforward catch-and-shoot to faking, taking one dribble, and then pulling up. He’s shown an ability to take that free-throw line jumper and move it back a couple steps to the 3-point line, but it’s been inconsistent and not a huge part of his game. Popping out to the 3-point line would open up not just his game, but his teammates as well. A Paul George-Turner pick-and-pop is already lethal; if Turner could space the floor out all the way out to the 3-point line, George would have the freedom to do what he does best.
As it is, Turner opts to roll to the rim more often when George is the ball-handler. Defenses commit hard to stopping George when he comes around a screen, often pushing two defenders his way to trap him and get the ball out of his hands. Turner is often the beneficiary of the extra attention, cutting down the lane for a myriad of crafty finishes over or around rotating defenders. The same touch that he shows on his jumpers is evident when he gets into the lane, whether it’s a deft floater or a double-clutch layup.
After a slow start, Jeff Teague’s arrival in Indiana last offseason has been a boon for Turner, as Teague is one of the most patient guards in the league in the pick-and-roll. He loves to take the screen, attack the big, and then just stop, waiting to see what the defense gives him. This worked wonders with Paul Millsap and Al Horford in Atlanta and now Turner is able to prosper in a similar environment.
The Pacers have found an answer for every type of pick-and-roll defense, so when the offense breaks down, Turner can step into a ball screen and Indiana will usually get a good look out of it. The Pacers rank in the top third of the league in late and very late shot clock effective field goal percentage, with a significant chunk of this working pick-and-rolls with Turner as a quick way to generate a good shot.
Turner feasts against ICE coverage on side pick-and-rolls, using the attention the guard draws to find himself open for a mid-range jumper. The downfall of ICE coverage is that it cedes this pick-and-pop jumper to the big man and Turner takes full advantage of teams who opt to do so.
The ball gets swung to Teague on the left wing and Turner steps up to screen Jrue Holiday. Holiday sees the screen coming and steps over it before Teague can react, forcing him baseline, as ICE coverage dictates. Teague drives baseline and meets Alexis Ajinca on the block before turning and finding Turner for a wide-open jumper. Turner’s shooting is what makes any of this possible; otherwise, he’d just be clogging up the works in the middle of the floor as Teague drives.
Indiana yields similar results against bigs who drop back into the paint on pick-and-rolls, for much the same reason; Teague is able to attack them then drop the ball off to Turner for an open jumper.
Not much changes when teams trap Teague after the screen. He’ll just flatten out his dribble, dragging both defenders toward the sideline, before popping the ball over the top to Turner at the top of the key:
Some of the best Indiana offense comes when they run specific plays for Turner. One of Nate McMillan’s favorite ATO sets is a pick-and-pop set out of HORNS for Teague and Turner:
Teague triggers the play by entering the ball into the opposite big from Turner. In this instance, he passes to Thaddeus Young at the left elbow then follows his pass into the corner to screen for Monta Ellis. Ellis cuts through to the other side of the floor as Teague turns around and sprints through a dribble handoff from Young and the subsequent screen from Turner. Kemba Walker, Teague’s defender, is already behind the play and desperately trying to catch up, which forces Cody Zeller to pause to contain Teague before recovering to Turner. By then it’s too late; Teague has already hit Turner and the Hornets have to pick the ball out of their own net.
As he grows into his game, more and more of these pick-and-pop jumpers will turn into 3-pointers, but for now, having a center who can provide an outlet from mid-range for Teague and George has opened up Indiana’s offense immensely.
At just 20 years old, Turner has made remarkable strides on the defensive end in his young career. He’s already a sturdy rim protector; of guys who see at least 15 restricted area shots per game, he’s just about in the top third of the league in field goal percentage against at the rim. Nothing about his rim protection blows you away, but for a second-year player who’s already been through two head coaches, the fact that he’s solid on the defensive end is a major plus for his long-term projections.
His pick-and-roll defense is similarly above average. He’s got good feet for his size and can contain a ball-handler briefly before getting back out to his man. He’s not yet an elite trapping center, but with his length and quick leaping ability, Indiana will want to keep him as close to the rim as possible.
Just like on the offensive end, Turner’s defensive game isn’t perfect, but it’s solidly above average across the board for a player of his age and size. None of his miscues are unsolvable; it’s not as if he’s just too slow and plodding to play high-quality defense. He’ll fall asleep from time to time, which can allow an easy seal and quick basket for a savvy opponent. He’ll jump to block shots he has no business contesting, opening up easy put-back opportunities for the man he’s supposed to box out. Other times, he won’t contest at all, allowing easy layups to driving guards; as the team’s primary rim protector, he has to step in front and contest those drives. These aren’t physical limitations that will keep him from reaching his ceiling; these are simply mental errors that will get ironed out as he continues to get more experience in the league.
Like Towns and Porzingis, Turner is the quintessential center for the next era of the NBA, where big guys need to be able to protect the rim, knock down jumpers, and take the ball hard to the rim. Turner already does most of these things adequately and if he were to never take another step in his development, he would still be a starter on a contender. Just 20 years old, Turner has all the room to grow his game and truly turn into one of the league’s most fearsome centers on both ends of the floor.