Kobalt 400 from Las Vegas Motor Speedway: Preview and prediction

Las Vegas Motor Speedway could be the perfect site for the next chapter of the Ford resurgence.

Early in the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, it feels like there’s a changing of the guard in the works. Not from the veteran stars of the sport to the next generation, though the likes of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are knocking on the door. Instead, it’s the sudden and dramatic rebirth of Ford that has been the story so far, and there’s every reason to believe the Kobalt 400 could continue that tale.

For starters, Las Vegas has historically been Ford country. Jack Roush’s Ford drivers won five of the first seven races in Sin City, and the Blue Oval has claimed as man checkered flags at LVMS as Chevy and Toyota combined.

Even with the decline of Roush Fenway Racing turning the Ford camp into essentially a two-man Team Penske show in 2016, Brad Keselowski recorded one of his wins at the Kobalt 400, something he also did in 2014. In-between, Kevin Harvick won the 2015 race — and oh yeah, he now drives a Ford as well.

Harvick’s teammate, Kurt Busch, won the Daytona 500, so it’s been all Ford so far, and that could certainly continue. However, the XFINITY Series race on Saturday showed how the stages and the different strategies that arise because of them could throw a monkey wrench into the works. Chevy and Toyota fans have to be hoping if that happens, it favors some of their drivers.

Next: Kobalt 400 grid and starting lineup

WEATHER FORECAST:

Weather.com is calling for sunshine and temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s during the Kobalt 400. That would make this the warmest race of the young NASCAR season and suggest a slicker track. However, drivers have been pretty unanimous in their praise of how the tires Goodyear brings to Las Vegas have been laying down plenty of rubber, and the XFINITY Series race showed several grooves were possible to run with success.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH:

• Is something wrong with the Hendrick team? Chase Elliott looks just fine, thanks, and Kasey Kahne is ninth in points with a pair of top-10 finishes despite not being a threat to win at any time. But Jimmie Johnson and the 48 crew look uncharacteristically lost, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was dreadful at Atlanta.
• More long green runs ahead. After a wreck-filled weekend to kick off the season at Daytona, Atlanta was extremely caution-free in comparison. Saturday’s XFINITY Series race suggests that Las Vegas will be more like Atlanta, with long stretches of green flag racing. Crew chiefs will have to make the right calls on when to come in, though the stage-ending cautions should help too.
• Stage points matter. Harvick is the points leader mainly because of his dominance of early stages. If anyone is going to try running up front early, it’s probably him since it’s worked in his favor so far. But it’s fair to wonder if anyone else will try to be more aggressive earlier due to Harvick’s success.

PREDICTION:

Some races just require you to go with one particular driver until there’s reason to think otherwise. Brad Keselowski is the pick here, not because he won the pole (though that certainly doesn’t hurt), but because he knows how to win at Vegas, his No. 2 has been fast everywhere so far and he would have been in the mix for the XFINITY Series race win if not for a loose lug nut. The longer odds pick is the same as last week: Kyle Larson, as he is knocking on the door and has to be hungry after his runner-up finish on Saturday. And for a longshot, how about Daniel Suarez? He’s looked every bit the rookie through two weeks, but he has a great starting spot and got around LVMS just fine in his XFINITY ride even when it looked to have some handling issues.