Baltimore Orioles: 2017 MLB season preview

The Baltimore Orioles will look to return to the playoffs for the second year in a row, but will have tough competition.

In what seems to have become an annual tradition, the Baltimore Orioles entered the 2016 season given a very slim chance to make the playoffs or even finish with a winning record, for that matter. Even after a record-setting spending spree in the offseason, the Orioles were still viewed as a flawed team with questionable starting pitching and an offense that refuses to do anything but homer or strike out.

Somehow, someway, the Orioles made it to the end of last season holding onto the second Wild Card. We won’t touch on how their season ended, but let’s just say that Zach Britton’s game-used jersey being sold online qualified as false advertising. After an offseason devoid of big moves, the Orioles enter 2017 with essentially the same team that won 89 games after being tabbed for fewer than 70 in some preseason predictions.

It’s going to be more of the same in Baltimore this year — home runs in bunches, no stolen bases, solid defense, just enough (maybe) starting pitching, and a dominant bullpen. Can that translate into another trip to the postseason for the winningest team in the AL since 2012?

Pitching

The Orioles barely made it a week into camp in Florida before receiving what may or may not be a crushing blow to their hopes for this season. De facto ace Chris Tillman, who battled shoulder issues in the second half of last year, is still dealing with a sore shoulder and may not be ready for the start of the season. He has already been ruled out of drawing his fourth Opening Day start, and his rehab just continues to drag on with very little progress. If Tillman’s absence is limited to April, the Orioles can get by with some internal options mixed around off days. Any longer, and this team has a real problem.

Behind Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy will have to step up if the Orioles are to have a legitimate shot at contending this season. Both are former top-five picks who have seen their careers in Baltimore get off to rocky starts. Gausman has been jerked around by the team, and was not given a full season in the rotation until last year. He was phenomenal in the second half, and could be turning the corner. Bundy battled elbow and shoulder injuries after rocketing through the system, and was forced to stay in the big leagues all of last year because he was out of options. He looked very good at times before running out of gas down the stretch. Bundy is working on throwing his cutter again this year, a pitch that was viewed as his best offering before the injuries.

"“I didn’t want to throw that cutter/slider thing last year. I wanted to get a full year healthy in the big leagues and give my arm strength built back up. … If I can just add one more just to give ‘em a different look, I think it will help.”"

Behind that top group, the Orioles will roll out Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley, two wild cards. Jimenez was awful for most of last season before finding his command and dazzling in August and September. This is his walk year, which could provide some extra motivation. Miley was average for the Orioles after being acquired at the deadline last year. If any of the projected starters falter, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Gabriel Ynoa, and Joe Gunkel could provide some depth.

Offense

The Orioles are bringing back most of the same lineup that led baseball in home runs last season. Swapping in Welington Castillo for Matt Wieters is not a downgrade at all. Castillo does not have as much name recognition, but is coming off a superior offensive season. Re-signing Mark Trumbo for only $37.5 million was a steal for the front office, as was flipping declining starter Yovani Gallardo for outfielder Seth Smith.

This lineup will once again crank out close to 250 home runs, if not more. The biggest question is the man in the middle, Chris Davis. In the first year of his $161-million deal, the first baseman had an ugly season. He still managed 38 home runs, but struck out 219 times and batted .200/.313/.412 in the second half. Davis has made it a habit to put up his best offensive numbers in odd years, and it’s 2017, so that bodes well for the Orioles. More important than any loose numerical association, his injured left thumb should be healthy.

As Davis struggled in the second half last year, he dragged down the rest of the lineup. Across the board, the Orioles were a markedly worse team after the break. That’s partly due to being a strikeout-prone bunch, but having an automatic out in the cleanup spot makes it much harder on everyone.

The stars are in place for this lineup to put up runs and dingers at a dizzying pace in 2017. Bringing Trumbo back made too much sense, especially at the eventual price. He may not hit 47 home runs again, but his swing is tailor-made for Camden Yards. There will be rough patches from time to time as the one-dimensional approach bites them in the backside. Continued growth from Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop will help. Finding out if Hyun Soo Kim can handle playing everyday will also be a big key. Kim is the rare bat in this lineup that makes consistent contact and draws walks. He profiles as an ideal fit for the two-hole, but was used exclusively in a platoon role last year.

There is a nice platoon to be worked out with Smith and last year’s darling, Joey Rickard. Smith is a career .272/.355/.472 hitter against righties, and Rickard batted .313/.367/.494 against lefties last year. Still a small sample size for Rickard, but if anyone knows how to get the most out of his platoons, it is manager Buck Showalter. Using a Smith-Rickard platoon in right field would provide a much better defensive answer than allowing Mark Trumbo to stomp around clumsily (albeit enthusiastically) in the field.

Bullpen

The starting rotation will be a big question mark again for the Orioles, but the bullpen will be dominant as ever. In September last season, the O’s discovered Donnie Hart could be a legitimate weapon as a lefty specialist, filling in the one void in their bullpen. The quartet of Mychal Givens, Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton is arguably the best in the league. The Orioles finished third in baseball and first in the AL last year with a 3.35 ERA from their bullpen.

Givens, Brach, and O’Day all throw from unique arm slots, allowing them to match up well against hitters from both sides of the plate. Britton’s sinker is impossible for hitters to lift, and he is coming off one of the best seasons ever by a closer. If the starters can consistently get through six innings without being roughed up, the bullpen will take care of the rest.

Having a healthy O’Day for the entire season will be big for this group. The sidewinder made only 34 appearances last year, and his absence dragged on Givens and Brach at times. If O’Day can make it through 60 or more games, that will allow the Orioles to avoid using the fringe relievers they were forced to depend on at times last year. One thing’s for sure, though, Zach Britton will not be left waiting in the bullpen if the Orioles play an elimination game in 2017.

Manager

To some, Buck Showalter comes off as a prickly pear. While he’s never going to win Miss Congeniality, this veteran skipper is beloved in Baltimore, and for good reason. Showalter set the tone from the day he took the job back in 2010, and he is 547-482 in parts of seven years with the Orioles. Showalter is a master motivator who has cultivated one of the best clubhouse cultures in the league.

Showalter is caught in the middle of the new wave of analytically-minded managers and the Old School crew. He comes off as a curmudgeon, but that does not mean he is inclined to ignore all new ways of thinking about the game. Showalter was handed a lineup that is very redundant, but he has always found a way to get the most out of platoon players and spare parts like Steve Pearce, Pedro Alvarez, Nate McLouth, and Danny Valencia. His bullpen management, save the debacle in the playoffs last year, has been phenomenal.

Players know where they stand with a manager like Showalter, and they are willing to run through a brick wall for him. He is a top-five manager in baseball, and will learn and grow from his mistake last fall.

X-Factor

Jonathan Schoop appeared ready to take the next step to superstardom last season. He entered the All-Star break with a .304/.338/.509 and 14 home runs and 23 doubles. Schoop had a legitimate place in the conversation for the Midsummer Classic in San Diego, but was ultimately passed over.

The blazing start to last season for Schoop went spiraling down in the second half. He batted just .225/.252/.391, and was done in by his inability to show even a tiny bit of discipline at the plate. Of course, the struggles of Davis and Trumbo in the second half played a big part in his demise. Even the great Manny Machado struggled in the second half, posting a .266/.306/.492 line.

Next: Check out our Orioles site!

Schoop would finish the year with 25 home runs and 82 RBIs. Those are fine numbers for a second baseman still in his age-24 season. However, there is just so much room for improvement. Schoop walked only 21 times in 647 plate appearances. He must stop getting himself out by chasing pitches out of the zone. If he is able to take the next step in his maturation as a hitter, Schoop will be a real force for a full 162-game run, and that makes this lineup that much more potent.

Prediction

The Orioles are no one’s favorite entering the season, and projecting them as a playoff team might be a stretch. Winning the division is out of the question unless catastrophic injuries hit at least two members of the Boston rotation. The Wild Card, however, is still very much in play. Only the Cleveland Indians stand out in a tight American League as a slam-dunk contender.

Things will have to break perfectly for the Orioles to make the playoffs again this year. An injury to Gausman or Bundy will essentially put them out of the running. Tillman needs to be close to 100 percent when he comes back. Otherwise, there is enough talent in the lineup and bullpen to keep them in contention deep into September.

With the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees still in a rebuilding mode, and the Toronto Blue Jays looking much different this year, the Orioles can grab second place in the AL East. Perhaps the biggest loss of the winter was Toronto’s loss of Edwin Encarnacion. He was a career .266/.342/.5549 hitter against the O’s. Without Encarnacion, the Blue Jays lineup becomes much easier for the fly-ball staff of the Orioles to navigate. Baltimore will trump the projection models once again, and will make back-to-back trips to the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.