Toronto Blue Jays: 2017 MLB season preview

 Will 2017 be the year the Toronto Blue Jays finally get past the ALCS and into the World Series?

After missing the playoffs for over 20 years after winning the World Series in 1993, the Toronto Blue Jays have been to the ALCS two straight times. Both trips ended rather unceremoniously, with the Jays losing 4-2 to the Kansas City Royals in 2015 and 4-1 to the Cleveland Indians last year. Each ALCS team has its strengths, with the first version featuring a wrecking-ball offense. Last year’s ALCS squad slowed down offensively, but had some of the best starting pitching in the American League.

The Jays will look a little different again this season. Edwin Encarnacion is gone, signing with the Indians. In his place, Toronto will deploy switch-hitter Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce. Jose Bautista eventually re-signed with the Blue Jays, and will have something to prove this year after no one wanted him on the open market. Losing Encarnacion hurts, but the front office was able to move on quickly and execute a very good offseason. The Blue Jays are primed for contention yet again.

Pitching

Ace Aaron Sanchez is ready to take total control of this rotation. Limited to 30 starts and 192.0 innings last year as the Blue Jays brought his development along slowly, Sanchez went 15-2 while leading the American League with a 3.00 ERA. He also allowed the fewest home runs per nine among starters. Sanchez primarily features a heavy sinker that he throws close to 96 mph. It is almost impossible for hitters to elevate the pitch. He backs up his sinker with a curve and changeup that are both very effective. Toronto has not had a homegrown ace since the great Roy Halladay, and in Sanchez, they have finally found Doc’s successor.

Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ, two of the best reclamation projects in the league, follow Sanchez. Since being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates at the deadline in 2015, Happ is 27-6 with a 2.86 ERA in over 250 innings. Whatever Ray Searage taught him in Pittsburgh is certainly sticking. Estrada is 22-17 in his two years in Toronto, and has led the AL in fewest hits per nine in both years. He was a giveaway in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, but has blossomed in Toronto. Estrada has one of the best changeups in baseball, and his high spin rate fastball allows him to get away with underwhelming velocity. The only downside to Estrada is that he must be fully healthy to remain effective. A back injury lingered for most of last season, and Estrada struggled with command at times.

The most interesting name in the Blue Jays rotation is Marcus Stroman. He flashed ace potential in 2014 and 2015, but struggled for long stretches of last year. Stroman finished the year 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA. After a disastrous month of June in which he had a 7.76 ERA things seemed to click for Stroman, and he posted sub-4.00 ERAs in each of the season’s final three months. There will always be concerns that Stroman’s height will limit him over a full season, and those concerns played out last season.

Francisco Liriano will round out the Toronto rotation for now. He looked awful in the first half of 2016 with the Pirates, but rebounded in dominant fashion after being traded to the Jays. Liriano had a 2.92 ERA in 10 appearances after being reunited with backstop Russell Martin, who doesn’t get enough credit for his work managing pitching staffs. Martin is one of the best pitch framers in the league, and he has always gotten the most out of his rotation. If Liriano falters, there isn’t much depth. Mat Latos and Gavin Floyd are in camp, and the Blue Jays have also toyed with the idea of stretching reliever Joe Biagini out to start.

Lineup

Without Edwin Encarnacion, and with an aging Jose Bautista, the weight of carrying the Toronto offense will fall squarely on the shoulders of MVP Josh Donaldson. In his second year with the Jays, Donaldson batted .284/.404/.549 with 37 home runs and 99 RBI. He was limited down the stretch by a hip injury, and drove in only 36 runs in the second half with an OPS of .866. He is one of the most disciplined hitters in the league, and pitchers may not give him much to hit this year if the rest of the lineup battles injury and inconsistency like it did last year.

The Blue Jays batted .269/.340/.457 in 2015 while leading all of baseball with 891 runs. They scored 127 more runs than the New York Yankees in second place. Following that year for the ages, the Jays still scored a respectable 759 runs in 2016, but slashed .248/.330/.426. Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin all had down years.

Bautista is going to have a hard time staying healthy for 162 games and matching the production in the four-hole of Encarnacion. He remains one of the best in the league at getting his pitch and refusing to give in, but Bautista looks like a low-average, middling slugger going forward. The Blue Jays need him healthy and on the field for at least 130 games. Bautista really should be shifting into a more full-time DH role, but the addition of Kendrys Morales makes it difficult to keep him out of right field.

Looking back, signing Morales has the feel of a panic move by the Toronto front office. Had they waited out the market, the Jays could have brought Encarnacion back for lower than their original offer. Instead, they quickly signed Morales and Steve Pearce. In two years with the Royals, Morales was able to resurrect his career, batting .277/.344/.476 with 52 homers and 199 RBI. He should fit in well with a very patient lineup.

At this point of their careers, Tulowitzki and Martin are more valuable for their defense than anything they will do with the bat. Tulowitzki has batted just .250/.318/.427 since being traded, and has dealt with injuries in both seasons with Toronto. Martin is a 34-year-old catcher, who has logged almost 12,000 innings behind the plate in his 11-year career. His glove will be more valuable than his bat over the final three years of his contract.

A combination of Melvin Upton, Ezequiel Carrera, and Steve Pearce will handle the corners. Carrera and Upton will see more time in left field, and Pearce may get in the mix when Bautista slides to DH. Carrera had a nice breakout season in 2016, but slumped in the second half. Upton batted below .200 for the Blue Jays. Pearce has crushed left-handed pitching throughout his career, but he feels like an extra part after Bautista re-signed. He will also share at-bats with Justin Smoak at first base.

Kevin Pillar is a great defender in center, but his .679 OPS last year leaves something to be desired. The breakout star to watch for in the Jays lineup this year is Devon Travis. Staying healthy has been a big problem for the second baseman over the first two years of his career. In 163 games over the past two seasons, Travis is a .301/.342/.469 hitter with 46 doubles, 19 home runs and 85 RBI. He has the potential to be a scary weapon at the top of the order, but is still battlign injuries this spring.

The Blue Jays also have some quality depth on their bench. Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney have contributed when pressed into duty by injuries to Tulowitzki and Travis. There is the potential for a nice platoon at first base with Pearce and Smoak. Even without Encarnacion, this is a lineup that should scare most of the American League.

Bullpen

This is where it gets dicey for the Blue Jays. Their bullpen finished 22nd in baseball last year with a 4.11 ERA. Only the Texas Rangers made the playoffs with a worse bullpen. Toronto did nothing to upgrade their ‘pen in a meaningful way over the offseason.

Closer Roberto Osuna is one of the best in baseball. He saved 36 games last year with 82 strikeouts in 74 innings. Still only 22, Osuna has plenty of room for improvement. His ERA has trended closer to 3.00 in his first two years in the big leagues than is desirable for a contender.

Jason Grilli will set the table for Osuna again this year. The former All-Star pitched in 46 games for the Blue Jays last year, and went 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings of work. Grilli is now 40, and his age showed at times last year. He allowed 1.7 home runs per nine in Toronto. Grilli remains a serviceable option, but he may be a roller coaster ride at times.

The Blue Jays went out and signed veteran relievers Joe Smith and J.P. Howell over the winter. Smith, the righty, and Howell, the lefty, should make a nice tandem to work in the seventh inning. Neither has overwhelming stuff, but both have postseason experience. With limited options available on the market, the Jays could have done worse than this pair.

Joe Biagini holds the key to whether or not this bullpen will be average or better than that. At this point, the Blue Jays seem to have shelved the idea of using last year’s Rule 5 pick as a starter. Biagini went 4-3 last year with a 3.06 ERA in 60 games. He is very stingy with the longball, and if he takes the next step in 2017, Biagini could take over the setup role from Grilli.

Overall, the Blue Jays bullpen does have the potential to be better in 2017, but they are counting on veteran middle relievers for consistency. Their results can vary wildly from year to year, especially if they must rely on inducing soft contact. This bullpen won’t break the Blue Jays playoff hopes, but it will cause headaches from time to time.

Manager

John Gibbons certainly isn’t the most lovable manager around baseball. He made headlines last year with sexist remarks surrounding the new slide rules, and refused to walk them back. Those remarks might earn him some criticism in the hyper-sensitive culture of 2017, but would not make a ripple in a big-league clubhouse. Gibbons fits well with the combustible Toronto roster, and knows how to motivate a group that seems to feed from the “haters” and negativity.

There’s no getting around the fact that Gibbons is a feisty fellow. In his career, he has feuded with Dave Bush, Ted Lilly, Frank Thomas, Shea Hillenbrand, and had a brief spat with Josh Donaldson last year. He was also suspended for three games last year after getting a little too involved in the Bautista-Odor brawl with the Texas Rangers.

As a manager, Gibbons may not work with many teams in the league, but he fits well with the us-against-the-world mentality in Toronto. He isn’t known for being a great strategist, but has built a very good staff. Overall, he is closer to a net-neutral as a manager, but it’s hard to account for his ability to massage the big egos and personalities in his clubhouse.

X-Factor

In spite of themselves, Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays are back together. This reunion has the feel of a bickering husband and wife coming back together after a trial separation. Bautista wanted a big contract in free agency, but no interest materialized, and he was forced back to Toronto with a contract that can be bought out next year.

There was some thought that the Blue Jays were ready to move on from Bautista because his bat no longer justified the headaches that come with his big personality. After batting .234/.366/.452, Bautista needs to realize that this is Josh Donaldson’s team, not his. He is 36, and already widely disliked around the league. The antics, preening, and complaining don’t fly when the ball isn’t jumping off the bat the same way it used to.

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Assuming Bautista is fully healthy this year, he should be able to rebound and have a strong season. He needs to if he intends to have his 2018 option picked up for $17 million. A good season could also allow him to decline the option and seek a richer deal. Toronto needs Bautista to have a good season and protect Donaldson because Tulowitzki and Martin appear to be in decline as well.

Prediction

The Blue Jays entered 2016 hot off an exciting return to the playoffs. Their pitching was forced to carry most of the load last year, and the offense did just enough to get them back to the postseason. Injuries are going to be what makes or breaks the Blue Jays in 2017. Donaldson and Travis are already dealing with nagging injuries before the season even starts. It’s doubtful Bautista can get through 162 games without something popping up. He should be moving to DH more permanently, but Morales needs the at-bats there.

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Toronto still has the pitching to contend, but any injuries, like Estrada’s last year, would be big trouble. The bullpen will rank near the bottom of the league again. Overall, there is still a lot to like about the Blue Jays, but one or two major injuries will occur this year, and they will not be able to cover for the loss of a player like Donaldson or Bautista for an extended period of time. The streak of playoff appearances comes to an end this year.