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Jack Eichel: Best fits beyond Sabres

By Nic Hendrickson

Mar 14, 2017; San Jose, CA, USA; Buffalo Sabres center Jack Eichel (15) prepares for the next play against the San Jose Sharks during the third period at SAP Center at San Jose. The San Jose Sharks defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 14, 2017; San Jose, CA, USA; Buffalo Sabres center Jack Eichel (15) prepares for the next play against the San Jose Sharks during the third period at SAP Center at San Jose. The San Jose Sharks defeated the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Buffalo Sabres are building around 20-year-old superstar Jack Eichel, but he hasn’t been pleased with the organization. Will the team lose him before his prime years?

Rumors surfaced about Jack Eichel being displeased with the coaching style of Dan Bylsma. With that news, many wondered whether Eichel would sign an extension with the club or work his way out of town, one way or the other. On Thursday, the Sabres quickly fired Bylsma and general manager Tim Murray, perhaps hoping to appease Eichel.

If it doesn’t, and Eichel still wants out of a great American hockey city, where could he end up?

Let’s first take an in-depth look at the numbers behind Eichel’s first two years, where he was the top point producer for Buffalo. However, the analytics may say something else.

The Numbers

2015-16 Season

Eichel burst onto the scene in 2015-16 with a 56-point campaign. That 56-point season was good for second on the Sabres roster in points, trailing only Ryan O’Reilly (60). Eichel also led the Sabres in goals, with 24, in his rookie season. Impressive feats for the American-born forward.

To have a better look at his rookie season, we have decided to use Relative Corsi-For Percentage (Rel.CF%), with ‘score, zone, and venue’ adjustments made, which makes it repeatable. Generally, a good Rel.CF% would be anything above a 1.00, or anything even for that matter. Eichel came in with a -2.05 in his rookie season, which was only better than one other full-time Sabres forward, David Legwand.

Despite the fact that Eichel had a relatively poor Rel.CF%, he did produce 2.16 individual scoring chances for (iSCF60) per game. For reference, NHL points leader Patrick Kane (106 points) came in with a 1.78 iSCF60. While this doesn’t necessarily prove that Eichel is equivalent, or better, at producing individual scoring chances than Kane, it shows just how impressive he was in his own zone during his first season.

2016-17 Season

The 2016-17 season was met with a major deal of optimism on the back of a 56-point season. Unfortunately, Eichel suffered a high-ankle sprain in training camp, shortening his sophomore season to just 61 games. However, this has only proven as another strong argument point to how good Eichel really is.

Eichel finished his 61-game sophomore season with not only more points, but better numbers overall, than his impressive rookie year. Eichel matched his goal tally, 24, of his rookie season, and finished with 33 assists on the season as well, one more than in 2015-16. Aside from that, he finished his 61-game campaign with a Rel.CF% of 0.60, and produced 1.97 individual scoring chances for per 60. Massively impressive numbers, to say the least.

So what does this all say? Well it states the obvious fact that Eichel is, head-and-shoulders, the best forward on the Buffalo roster, let alone one of the most promising American-born prospects in some time. And now this ‘contract dispute’ has come up, seemingly out of nowhere. Meaning that if the Sabres do decide to part ways with Eichel, he is certainly going to fetch them quite the pretty penny in return.

Speaking hypothetically, if the Sabres do decide to keep Bylsma as their head coach, and Eichel doesn’t actually want to play for him, this would mean the Sabres would have to part ways with Eichel via a trade, given the fact that his entry-level contract (ELC) runs through the 2017-18 season.

Let’s take a look at the teams that would likely be interested in such a promising young center, and narrow it down to some of the most likely options.

Colorado Avalanche

It goes without saying that the Avalanche need help offensively, as they only scored 165 goals this season, worst in the NHL. A player like Eichel could be just the offensive spark to get the organization heading in the right direction. And with the likes of Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog being on the trading block all season, that could free up the cap space needed to bring in the likes of Eichel and re-sign him after his ELC expires after next season.

The only issue facing Colorado as a suitor is, who would they send to Buffalo for Eichel? It’s obvious that Duchene and Landeskog would be of interest to the Sabres, but they do not currently have the cap space to take on either of their contracts, $6 million and $5.57 million respectively. Buffalo would likely have to part ways with another important player to make this trade happen.

New Jersey Devils

Another team that comes to mind is the New Jersey Devils. They added an elite talent in Taylor Hall this season, but failed to match him with a center that could come close to his talent level, and Eichel could do just that. Pairing a player like Hall with a young talent like Eichel would not only make good on the 11.87 Rel.CF% that Hall had this season, but could mean a serious upward trend in scoring for a Devils team that finished 28th in scoring with a rather pitiful 180 goals.

The next question that’s brought up in this situation, and arguably the most important, would be that of cap space. This is another reason that New Jersey could be a viable suitor if Eichel does end up leaving Buffalo. New Jersey has just under $9 million in cap space to play with, plenty enough to theoretically sign Eichel after his entry-level contract runs up after next season.

The only issue with New Jersey as a possible destination is what they would have to give up to get Eichel. It is obvious that the asking price would be massive, and New Jersey doesn’t have any offensive firepower outside of Taylor Hall to entice Buffalo to accept a trade. New Jersey would have to get creative to get a deal done.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks are yet another team dwelling in the basement of the scoring ranks, with only 178 goals scored this season (29th). And with an ageing roster on their hands, a young player like Eichel would be a fantastic addition to the corps of solid prospects coming through the ranks.

Getting Eichel in as a future top center would be a massive step in the right direction of the rebuild the Canucks are currently going through. The biggest question is how they would manage the ice time of Eichel, Bo Horvat, and Henrik Sedin.

On top of that, cap space is going to be hard to come by for the Canucks, and unless the Sedin brothers decided to retire a season early, which is unlikely, that would be the nail in the coffin for any possible deal for Eichel.

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Final Verdict

While the aforementioned organizations would all be great fits for Eichel, and the respective organizations as well, it’s rather unlikely that Eichel is going to leave Buffalo anytime soon. With Eichel being a restricted free agent after his ELC is up, the Sabres will match any offers coming Eichel’s way.

The most likely course of action is that Buffalo matches offers made to Eichel when he becomes a restricted free agent. But if the reports are true, and Buffalo keeps Bylsma, keep an eye on these three organizations to be circling in the water.

All analytics provided by Corsica.hockey, and all cap numbers provided by CapFriendly.

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