The Bucks’ offense may be the biggest problem for the Raptors
After scoring just 46 points through three quarters of Game 3, there will be plenty of talk about the Raptors’ offense. With Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan giving them very little for what feels like the 100th postseason in a row, there are rightfully plenty of questions about if this iteration of the Raptors can succeed in the playoffs. Unfortunately for Dwayne Casey’s group, fixing the offense may not be the most important part of a Raptors’ series comeback. Because so far through three games, they’ve shown no ability to stop any of the Bucks’ three best players.
Everything starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been the best player on the floor for either team through three games now. Much like the majority of the league, the Raptors do not posses a player able to slow him. Games start with DeMarre Carroll getting a shot, but that hasn’t worked yet. Antetokounmpo’s quickness has proven to be too much for Carroll, who has consistently been chasing the Bucks star from behind. P.J. Tucker has tried to slow Antetokounmpo, but Tucker has been left grasping for straws after spins or Matthew Dellavedova screens. In Game 2, Serge Ibaka made a difference as a rim protector against Antetokounmpo, but Ibaka starting the game on Tony Snell means wide open 3s for the Bucks when he helps. There have also been attempts from Patrick Patterson and others, but the common outcome is Antetokounmpo dominating.
Of course, one player having a great series wouldn’t be a huge problem for the Raptors if they were able to slow down other guys. But that hasn’t been the case. Instead, whenever Antetokounmpo needs a break, the Bucks are carried by two other players who the Raptors have shown no real ability to slow.
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One is Khris Middleton. So far in the series Middleton is averaging 16.7 points and 6.0 assists per game on 41 percent shooting. Take out a terrible shooting performance in Game 1 and things only get better. In the past two games Middleton has totaled 40 points on just 29 shots, destroying the Raptors whenever he wants. Part of it is the effect of playing with Antetokounmpo. With wing players being by far the best option to defend Antetokounmpo, Middleton ends up being defended by the second best perimeter defender most teams have. Considering the Raptors may only have one good wing defender left (Carroll sadly seems done, or close to it), that has left DeRozan on Middleton. And, well, that isn’t working. At all.
The Bucks have relentlessly run Middleton off screens and gotten him the ball around the elbows. From there he has dismantled DeRozan, causing the Raptors star to fall multiple times trying to keep up with Middleton’s herky-jerky game. When the Raptors finally tire of seeing Middleton roast DeRozan, they have tried Corey Joseph or Delon Wright. Neither have worked all that well. Thanks to his size and smooth post game, Middleton has just pounded the smaller point guards into a pulp before shooting over them. What has become clear over the last few games is that Toronto doesn’t really have a guard to defend Middleton. Even many of his misses have been good looks that just didn’t fall. Combined with Antetokounmpo and a third Buck, it has meant Milwaukee can get a good look seemingly any time they want.
That third Buck is Greg Monroe, who has taken advantage of his first playoff games in a big way. So far in the series Monroe is averaging 16.0 points per game on an impressive 55 percent shooting mark. What makes things even more impressive is that Monroe is doing it while struggling in the post (he is shooting just 28.6 percent on post-ups so far), possessions that make up a quarter of his touches.
Where Monroe has really hurt the Raptors is by cutting. According to NBA.com, Monroe is scoring 1.78 points per possession per cut and drawing fouls on 22.2 percent of his cuts. With cuts making up 22.5 percent of Monroe’s possessions, it isn’t a surprise he has been incredibly efficient. The numbers are similar in the pick-and-roll. Monroe currently sits at 1.33 points per possession as the roller, albeit on a smaller percentage of his possessions. The numbers back up the eye test. Monroe has feasted on the open space Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon have created. A Milwaukee possession with Monroe in the game often has ended up with Monroe running into space vacated by a help defender. From there it is just a simple catch and finish to put points on the board.
The scariest part of all for the Raptors is it isn’t even hard to see the Bucks getting better. Antetokounmpo has started to knock down more and more jumpers — shots Toronto is willingly conceding — in the last two games. Middleton, a 43 percent 3-point shooter during the regular season, shot a combined 1-6 in Games 1 and 3. Monroe has gotten good looks in the post and failed to convert. As someone who shot 47 percent from there in the regular season, more shots seem likely to fall. And this has all ignored Brogdon and the shooting the Bucks get from Snell, Thon Maker and Dellevadova.
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So yes, the Raptors’ offense will be better during the rest of the series. But unless Toronto finds ways to slow down the Bucks, it won’t matter. And right now it is hard to see that happening at all.