Brooklyn Nets–Orlando Magic Talks Break Down; Five New Trade Destinations for Dwight Howard

The ongoing and seemingly never-ending Dwight Howard trade saga took yet another hapless turn earlier today, as Adrian Wojnarowksi of Y! Sports reported that the Cleveland Cavaliers pulled out of a potential three team deal between they, the Orlando Magic, and Brooklyn Nets. The Nets coveted the Cavs as a facilitator in the swap for Howard, needing a third team to take free agent power forward Khris Humphries in a sign-and-trade so Brooklyn would be able to absorb the contracts of Howard and whoever comes with him from Orlando. With Cleveland bowing out as a potential trade partner, the Magic’s once likely deal that would land Howard in his preferred destination of Brooklyn has hit a significant snag, and Orlando has again started negotiating with other organizations.

While this development is undoubtedly disheartening for a Nets franchise on the verge of becoming an Eastern Conference power with Howard in the fold, it’s anything but for the spurned Magic. In the proposed trade with Brooklyn, Orlando would sign fourth-year center Brook Lopez to a contract worth the maximum and also receive two future first and second round picks from the Nets, as well as another first from a prospective third team. On the surface this seems an acceptable haul for a player of Howard’s world-class and game-changing caliber, as Lopez is one of the game’s top young post scorers and future draft selections are of considerable worth to an organization with a roster in flux. Those assets aren’t what they seem, though, as the value of Lopez – a dreadful rebounder/defender and coming off a major injury that limited him to five games in 2012 – is hardly worth maximum money and those forthcoming picks from Brooklyn would likely be in the late 20s, the result of a powerful Deron Williams-Joe Johnson-Howard Nets triumvirate.

The package the Nets are offering the Magic pales in comparison to those received by the Utah Jazz and New Orleans Hornets for Williams and Chris Paul, respectively, and even fails to match the Memphis Grizzlies’ haul in the much-maligned deal that sent Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers. Orlando, essentially, would get a player whose impact on the game is a net negative at a ridiculous price and draft flotsam that in an optimistic scenario could perhaps be flipped for a single pick that approaches the lottery. And that’s before getting into significant salary relief the Magic would fail to get from the insanely cap-strapped Nets.

So while the Orlando brass and their fans would prefer to wash their hands of this situation and get rid of Howard as soon as possible, that a deal with Brooklyn has been put on hold because of Cleveland’s refusal to participate is some of the best news this franchise has had in months. The Nets just don’t have enough to offer the Magic in a Howard trade, especially considering what signing Lopez, taking back Luke Walton, and failing to unload Hedo Turkoglu does to their cap room. This hardly would have endeared new Orlando GM Rob Hennigan to the dozens of Magic fans in the world, too, especially when there are several potential trade partners out there that can offer players and assets to Orlando that can get them on the fast-track back to respectability, like the suddenly relevant Hornets.

So the Brooklyn deal has been tabled for now, and Orlando is shopping Howard in wholesale earnest again. Which teams are in line for a potential deal? Who offers a more attractive package to the Magic than the one that they came thisclose to receiving from the Nets? Let’s rank them in descending order.

5. Golden State Warriors – Andrew Bogut, David Lee, Klay Thompson, Dorell Wright, Harrison Barnes to Orlando for Howard and Turkoglu

• This trade technically couldn’t be completed until next month because rookies (in this case, Barnes) aren’t allowed to be dealt until 30 days after signing their contract, but nonetheless is a significant upgrade on Brooklyn’s package in terms of talent and financial sense. Bogut and Lee are expensive and injury-prone, but borderline All-Stars that should make up one of the league’s best frontcourt tandems. Thompson showed major flashes of developing into a sweet-shooting, efficient scorer in his rookie year of 2011 and reportedly played very well for the USA Select Team at Olympic Training Camp, and Barnes, warts and all, remains one of the game’s best two-way wing prospects. Wright has worth as an expiring contract that could be traded to a contender in February, and shedding Turkoglu’s contract is big for a franchise in a market like Orlando. Golden State has sent feelers out indicating their willingness to take on Howard as a “rental,” and given the lure of the Bay Area and general upward trajectory of the organization no doubt feel they could entice him to stay when his contract expires at the end of this season. Orlando, for its part, would obviously prefer that Stephen Curry be included among the Warriors coming their way, something that could ultimately be negotiated if Golden State’s desire for Howard is strong enough.

4. Houston Rockets – Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Marcus Morris, Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, Two First-Round picks in 2013, 2015 First-Round Pick, and multiple Second-Round Picks to Orlando for Howard, Jason Richardson, and Quentin Richardson

• Rockets GM Daryl Morey has long coveted a superstar, and he’s made his intentions to make a play for Howard abundantly clear this off-season with a litany of moves that gave Houston little more than assets to be used in a potential Howard deal, despite losing talents like Kyle Lowry and Samuel Dalembert. Martin is a good fit for Orlando as an attractive expiring contract at the trade deadline or a backcourt scorer for the future, and Scola, though aging quickly, is still an above-average and appropriately priced forward. White, Lamb, and Morris are recent first-rounders with obvious potential, the former-most especially as a true point-forward the likes the league rarely sees. Then there’s the seemingly unlimited amount of picks Houston has stockpiled over the years, including two first-rounders in the 2013 draft. Orlando rids itself of the Richardsons, too, each on the books for multiple seasons at considerable prices as their games decline. It’s going to come down to a measure of quality versus quantity in dealing with Houston for the Magic, as no team has more assets to offer the Rockets; how Orlando values the potential of players like White and Lamb will ultimately decide if a deal gets done.

3. Atlanta Hawks – Al Horford, Jeff Teague, Zaza Pachulia, and a First-Round pick to Orlando for Howard and Jason Richardson

• The Hawks made the meteoric rise from one of the league’s most cap-strapped and roster restricted franchises to legitimate players for Howard and Chris Paul next summer when they agreed to trade Joe Johnson to Brooklyn for a series of expiring contracts and a first-round pick. While the Hawks will have tons of cap space once the coming season ends if they so choose, they might find it safer to bid for Howard’s services now rather than play the waiting game in free agency. Howard grew up in Atlanta and remains very close with Josh Smith, so though he’s yet to indicate a desire to sign long-term with the Hawks, chances are he ultimately would and Atlanta would feel comfortable dealing for him without that guarantee. In this scenario, only Howard, Smith, and Richardson would remain on the books for the Hawks after 2013, giving them the opportunity to chase Paul in next year’s free agency period to form their own Big Three. Orlando, meanwhile, sheds Richardson’s contract and gains two stellar young talents in Horford and Teague. The former in particular could play in multiple All-Star games in the future provided his health, and we’ve seen increasing glimpses of Teague’s awesome potential over the last two seasons. They and first-round pick Andrew Nicholson would comprise a nice start for the Magic as they begin the re-building process.

2. Los Angeles Lakers – Andrew Bynum to Orlando for Howard

• With the Brooklyn deal on hold, this is the deal Hennigan and the Magic supposedly covet most. Bynum in a straight-up swap for Howard is hardly ideal financially or with future assets in mind for Orlando, but just may be the best basketball option available. Instead of hitting re-start on the roster succumbing to the doldrums of non-playoff basketball, the Magic simply press re-tool by placing Bynum in Howard’s stead. That’s an obviously attractive option for an organization in the state of flux Orlando is right now, but one problem remains: Bynum’s contract runs out after 2013 and he’s reportedly reluctant to commit the the Magic long-term. The Lakers, clearly, would make this trade no questions asked, a quartet of Nash-Bryant-Gasol-Howard the likes the NBA has never seen, but Orlando is unwilling unless assured Bynum would be wearing blue and black for the foreseeable future. And with the Magic facing the same roster flexibility problems they do now even if this deal is made, why would he? Well, Orlando would be able to offer an additional year and more money than the multiple suitors that will no doubt give Bynum the maximum next summer. Orlando prefers this option with the Nets out of the picture, it seems, bet there are still mitigating factors that complicate this deal, and thus put its likelihood in jeopardy.

1. Los Angeles Clippers – Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to Orlando for Howard

• Los Angeles’ other team is the sleeping giant here, the one that makes most sense on the court for Howard’s new team and off it for his old one. There isn’t a potential tandem in the league better than Chris Paul and Howard, the former’s wizardry at point-guard sure to make up for the much-discussed offensive deficiencies of the latter. If Howard is going to deliver on his prodigious natural gifts and improve as a scorer, it’s going to take a player like Paul to get him there, and it’s easy to imagine lob after lob between these two via pick-and-rolls or quick spins off post-ups. In that way Howard would play a similar role to the one Griffin does now, but remain the more impactful performer because of his better efficiency and vastly superior defensive impact. In trading away a face of the franchise Orlando would get a new one in Griffin, one of the league’s most popular players. The prevailing thought was that he’d be unlikely to re-sign with the Magic once his contract ends after the coming season, but those concerns were alleviated by the Tuesday announcement that Griffin signed a five-year extension with Los Angeles. For Orlando, a Griffin-Jordan deal comes with the same potential potential for success that a trade for Bynum does, but added stability and major excitement that Bynum and the Lakers can’t come close to matching. Taking both sides into consideration, this is easily the most sensible and attractive trade involving Howard. Up to this point the Clippers have been unwilling to throw their hat into the ring, though, likely fearing a backlash from a suddenly dedicated fan base that could come from shipping Griffin – the most popular player in franchise history – to Florida. They’d be wise to rethink that, though, as they’re unlikely to enjoy the same success as currently constructed a team led by Paul and Howard would.