What is the secret for success?

What is the secret for success in fantasy baseball? What is the secret sauce that makes In-N-Out burgers taste so good? What is the one ring to rule them all?

What if there was one simple piece of advice that could be given to answer all the world’s big questions, including the ones above like the secret to success in fantasy baseball?

Actually, a lot of strategy guides, fantasy baseball blogs, and experts lean in one of two directions as to the secret for fantasy baseball success: player evaluation or strategy. So is it top-notch player evaluation or cunning strategy the secret?

The answer, obviously, is that both player evaluation and strategy are the secret to fantasy baseball success. But at times one trumps the other so we’re going to talk about both and how they both play into the overall success of your fantasy baseball team.

Player Evaluation

It’s true that you be hard pressed to be successful at fantasy baseball without evaluating players well. You have to know 200 players minimum going into the draft. You need to need know with crystal clear certainty their forecasted RBI, HRs, and SBs. You have to know their projected playing time, their splits, and if a breakout is likely or a long-shot. You also have to know these players in comparison to every other player at their position.

In other words, you need to be able to evaluate players to be successful at fantasy baseball. You better know your stuff.

We try to help with this. In March we ranked the top 25 at each position, and projected their stats for you (using a method of Marcels + our own secret sauce). We broke them into tiers, compared them among their positions and gave hints on sleepers and busts. We have also done frequent player profiles on players in season, particularly call ups.

It’s because we give you this information so thoroughly and freely that player evaluation has become less a secret to fantasy baseball success as it’s been in years past. I’ll explain.

Everyone is offering thorough player evaluation nowadays. There are some fantastic player evaluation sites and tools out there, ours included. On fangraphs alone you can get 5 projection systems collected in one place, and for free. Unless you are only reading those numbnuts at ESPN, you’re coming into each season with a solid set a numbers to draft from.

This does mean that the days of grabbing a quick magazine from the rack and cramming for your draft is over. You have to compare and research, but the tools are at your fingertips. Player evaluation doesn’t give you the same edge that it once did.

To settle a bet, I asked 7 fellow experts their thoughts via twitter (@cmcbrien, @FantasyTrade411, @MikeTSchmidt, @MikeGianella, @AskROTObaseball, @TheFantasyDR and @DJAubain) on Elvis Andrus versus Jose Reyes for the rest of the season. It came back 5-2 Andrus, but the point is that player evaluation certainly has a subjective element to it as well. The answer to the question “Reyes or Andrus?” is, of course, “I’ll take both please.” The secret then becomes how you use the two, which brings us to strategy.

Cunning Strategy

As the playing field for player evaluation has leveled, the pendulum for success has rushed toward strategy. (Can you count the metaphors I mixed in the previous sentence?) If you play fantasy baseball long enough you can easily spot the owners who seem to always have a trick up their sleeve. It’s no coincidence that the same owners always seem to make the right moves at the right time, or make trades that target just the right roto category, or are at the top of the standings season after season. Watching those owners is watching a strategist in action.

Still – like player evaluation above – the playing field for strategists is being leveled as well. Many strategies such as the LIMA plan, “Never Pay for Saves”, and variations of the Portfolio 3 are so commonplace that they no longer give you a competitive edge. The Billy Beane’s of fantasy baseball always need to look for the new “market inefficiency.” In fact, one league that I play in adapted so quickly to the MRI strategy I was using that I’ve since largely moved on from it.

That brings me to what I really want to say about strategy in fantasy baseball: the best strategy is an evolving strategy. The best owners aren’t just leaning on what worked for them once before, they are changing with the game and looking for new ways to get the most out of their fantasy baseball teams.

It’s a nimble strategy that’s able to make adjustments on the fly that seems to be the secret to success in today’s fantasy baseball leagues. Absolutely, player evaluation is key, but it’s internalized and used in a strategic way to use player evaluation to build fantasy baseball teams in ways that maximize value and minimize risk.

So what’s the secret for fantasy baseball success? Well, as I was writing this I realized that we want black and white answers, but we’re talking about a question that comes in 50 shades of grey. Still, if I had to make the call, I’d call it at 58-42%, giving the edge to strategy.

But I’d love to know your thoughts on this. This is an excellent topic to share your thoughts, so please light up the comments and let’s get a discussion going.

UPDATE: Mike Gianella posted his take on the player evaluation vs. strategy debate over at Roto Think Tank and Chris McBrien posted his at Dear Mr. Fantasy.