6 Mashers to Reach For Revisited

In February we ran a series of predictive posts as a Countdown to the 2012 fantasy baseball season. Those predictions have come and gone, so we thought we’d revisit them as we Ramp Up to Fantasy Baseball 2013. Yes, it’s never too early to prepare for the 2013 fantasy baseball season.

My love of the masher isn’t entirely based on pure adrenaline. Okay, there is some of that, but of the five standard fantasy offensive categories, a home run boosts four. It’s a hit, so batting average is improved, it’s at least one RBI, at least one run, and obviously a home run. The only one it doesn’t fit is the steal.

Still, a masher isn’t just a good home run hitter. Miguel Cabrera led all of baseball in homers, but he’s not a masher, as Cabrera is reliably well over .300. No, he’s just a good hitter. If before an at bat, if I told you that Cabrera would not hit a home run, many of you would still guess that he’d get a hit. A masher is more of an outhouse or castle type.

At the beginning of 2012, I listed these six men as mashers that I would reach for. Let’s see what they did and what we can look for in 2013.

Giancarlo Stanton, Dan Uggla, Mark Reynolds, Nelson Cruz, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson.

Giancarlo Stanton

Preseason Projection Range

Actual Numbers

What happened?

Stanton is an absolute stud and the way he’s developing, he’s no longer a masher, just a great hitter. He exceeded my best betting average projection by a full ten points. Despite actually having 57 fewer at bats than I thought the worst case scenario would be, he hit more homers with more RBI.

Injuries slowed Stanton down. He was also hurt by playing in a serious pitcher’s park. Of course, nobody knew how that stadium would play until the first game there. Also, the Marlins were an overall disappointment, which hurt his productivity in categories like runs and RBI. Still, if you drafted Stanton, you can’t really be regretting that decision, even if it was a reach at the time.

2013 Expectations:

If this kid stays healthy, he’s going to be something truly special, and not just in 2013. With 37 bombs in fewer than 450 at bats playing in a strong pitcher’s division, he clearly has a lot of power. But the average is where I’m now expecting big things. Repeating .290 may be a stretch, but I am expecting north of .275 and it wouldn’t shock me if Stanton’s average did improve.

The power will be there. With Stanton on your team, you can basically put 35 homers in the bank. Realistically, he could be closer to 50.

Dan Uggla

Preseason Projection Range

Actual Numbers

What happened?

Not much to say here, this was just a bad year. Uggla played in 154 games, so health was not a real issue. While the .220 batting average was lower than my worst expectations, the 19 homers is what’s troubling me here. Turner Field is a tough place to hit and when you’re facing pitchers like Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, R.A. Dickey, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels all year, stats are likely to reflect that, especially when you’re in your early 30’s (Uggla turned 32 in March of 2012).

2013 Expectations:

I’m willing to give Uggla one more shot and here’s why. Atlanta’s lineup is very lefty-heavy with the likes of Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann, and if he returns, Michael Bourn. They will need to put a big right-handed bat in the middle of all those lefties and with the switch hitting Chipper Jones retiring, Uggla is the best option. Hitting around those guys should give him good runs, homers, and RBI. It wouldn’t even surprise me to see him closer to .250 than .200. Still, I wouldn’t go without a backup plan here, nor would I be too patient.

Mark Reynolds

Preseason Projection Range

Actual Numbers

What happened?

Reynolds played in 135 games, which explains why things are a little low. For a hitter like Reynolds, .221 is like Albert Pujols hitting .450. Reynolds showed in 2012 that when he’s hot, he can still hit the long ball with anyone. Unfortunately, he’s still a serious streak hitter.

2013 Expectations:

Realistically, I’d probably suggest you let Reynolds go (or bench him) unless your team is well rounded and in need of a serious basher. But just remember, this guy gets hit and in a head-to-head league, he can make a big difference in several categories. If you notice Reynolds put a few good games together and you can nab him, do so. Baltimore is a more well-rounded team now and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Reynolds close to 40 homers and 100 RBI in 2013. Remember, he won’t even turn 30 until next August.

Nelson Cruz

Preseason Projection Range

Actual Numbers

What happened?

I never would have predicted that Cruz would be healthy (he played in 159 games) and hit .260. He’s a lot like the 2012 Rangers: Very good and hard to ignore, but ultimately a let down.

2013 Expectations:

A lot depends on where Josh Hamilton goes and were Cruz ends up in the lineup, but I think Cruz’s bat will be just fine in 2013. Never underestimate a player in a contract year, as Cruz is. Also, remember that even if Texas loses Hamilton, Cruz still be hitting around the likes of Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis Andrus, just to name a few.

We may not see the average close to .300 again but if Cruz stays on the field, I am expecting him to leave earth between 30 and 35 times.

Jay Bruce

Preseason Projection Range

Actual Numbers

What happened?

I won’t say that the average isn’t disappointing, but the rest is just fine. He’s been around for a while so it’s easy to forget this, but Bruce will only be 26 at the beginning of next season, so he’s still learning a lot of discipline at the plate. But take a look at this trend.

Bruce made his major league debut in 2008 and hit 21 homers. In 2009, he hit 22. In 2010, he hit 25. In 2011, he hit 32. In 2012, he hit 34.

Do you notice a theme there?

2013 Expectations:

I sure did, and I expect that to continue. Bruce has 40-home run potential and it wouldn’t shock me one bit to see him reach it. Remember, he’s in a good lineup in a good hitter’s park. As for the average, he’s still learning some plate discipline and will always strike out a lot, but I have a hunch he’ll be closer to .270 than .250 in 2013.

Curtis Granderson

Preseason Projection Range

Actual Numbers

What happened?

Derek Jeter may have found the Fountain of Youth this year, but some of his teammates weren’t so lucky. Mark Teixeria and Alex Rodriguez missed a combined 79 games, which kept Granderson’s numbers from being even better.

Granderson’s average has never been particularly special, at least not since 2009 when he hit .249. In three years with the Yankees, the Grandyman has only cracked .250 once, and that was a .262 average in 2011. The short right field porch calls at Yankee Stadium and while power numbers inflate, things like average suffer.

2013 Expectations:

The Yankees are getting old, but the heart of that lineup still consists of Granderson, Jeter, Teixeira, A-Rod, and Robinson Cano. When you’re in a hitter’s park around batters like that, numbers will come. Granderson has gone 20-20 three times in his career and I don’t think we can expect that again, but I still expect somewhere between 10-15.

Your average may take a bit of a hit, but with Granderson on the roster, runs, homers, and RBI are going to be filled in quite nicely.