Roy Halladay Fantasy Baseball: Exploring Doc’s Value in 2013
By Will Meadows
Doc is looking to bounce back from an injury plagued 2012.
Photo courtesy of Flickr user Jason Swaby
A major piece of the Phillies starting rotation will need to stay healthy this year for the Phillies to be able to compete for this year’s N.L. East crown. Roy Halladay, and the Philadelphia Phillies had a very disappointing season considering the expectations that were thrust upon them in the preseason.
Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels are one of the best front line starter combinations in baseball. No one predicted the rise of the Washington Nationals in the National League East combined while the Phillies fought through injuries, slumps and father time.
Lets take a look at Halladay, the two-time Cy Young Award winner, to see if he could be due for a major bounce back after his injury plagued season of 2012.
Cons
Coming off of a 19-6 season and finishing second in the Cy Young balloting in 2011, Roy Halladay was leading Phillies fan expectations of great things to come. He got off to a great start with a 3-2 record and a 1.95 era in the month of April but that’s as good as it was going to get. He spent nearly two months on the disabled list, which attributed to the lowest ground ball rate of his career at 44%. His season era of 4.49 was the highest it has been in ten years.
The month of September caused the injury bug to rear its ugly head once again. Roy battled shoulder spasms and inflammation, which limited his effectiveness on the mound. In September he posted a 3-1 record with a 6.84 era and 12 walks in 24 innings. These numbers are not what you want to see from a starter whose team is battling for a playoff spot.
At this point most of you want to keep your distance from Mr. Halladay and his ballooning era and mounting injuries as he nears the age of 36. That is where you’d be going wrong.
Pros
He was completely healthy for only two full months of last season. When you compile his April and August numbers they look like the dominant numbers from a pitcher still competing at a very elite level.
Healthy: April/August
- W-L: 7-3
- IP: 77
- K: 56
- ERA: 2.64
- WHIP: 1.05
Unhealthy: May/July/September
- W-L: 4-5
- IP: 78
- K: 76
- ERA: 6.26
- WHIP: 1.42
Let’s turn our focus towards the 2013 season and what we can expect out of the Phillies’ workhorse. Noted below are some personal predictions, along with the latest from Bill James.
Will’s 2013 projections:
- W: 16
- IP: 215
- K/9: 7.60
- BB/9: 1.40
- ERA: 3.35
Bill James 2013 projections:
- W: 15
- IP: 230
- K/9: 7.40
- BB/9: 1.68
- ERA: 3.21
At first glance these numbers don’t leap out and scream “take me in the fifth, sixth, or seventh round and thank me later.” However, these kinds of numbers are what you should be searching for in the ninth, tenth and even eleventh rounds of your draft. What makes Halladay even more enticing is that he will fall in drafts because of owners choosing youth and potential over the aging soon to be 36-year-old.
Conclusion
He will be taken in the ninth round and lower in most drafts allowing you to get a great bargain from your third or even fourth pitcher taken off the board. There is injury risk involved as he approaches the age of 36 but you will be hard pressed to find this kind of pitching talent waiting to be taken off the board in the beginning of the middle rounds of your draft.
Don’t follow the youth movement crowd with this selection. Go with a proven commodity and workhorse who will get you 200+ innings with an ERA under 3.50 with a proven offense to back him up. Draft Roy Halladay with confidence in your league and get one of the real bargains in this year’s draft.
Some of you may have noticed a new name with an unfamiliar face. My name is Will and I am the newest contributor on staff here at Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks. I will be bringing you in depth analysis and cutting edge trends that you will find no where else on the web for the 2013 MLB season. Keep it locked here for more analysis and a few surprises throughout the fantasy baseball season.