Kyle Lohse Brewers: Fantasy Spin on Pitcher’s Signing

Photo courtesy of Adam Fagen.

Kyle Lohse appears ready to sign for the 2013 season. Reports are that he’s staying in the NL Central with the Milwaukee Brewers. Lohse joins a motley crew in Wisconsin, and is most likely going to slot in as the number 2 man in the rotation behind Yovani Gallardo. 

 In our Draft Kit we had Lohse projected for:

Now, for three reasons, none of this is likely to change much with the change of scenery.

1. The change of ballpark is not a huge “park factor” change,
2. The teams are about the same level for competitive purposes and
3. His K:9 and K:BB rates aren’t going anywhere.

Unfortunately, my spin on Lohse is somewhat of a negative one as I am skeptical of his career year at the age of 33 last season. It seems a bit odd to me that a pitcher who had his career ERA well over 4 for most of his career all of the sudden could churn out a dominant season like he did in 2012 (2.86 ERA/1.09 WHIP).

I know his 2011 season totals (3.39 ERA/1.168 WHIP) were nothing to scoff at, and perhaps I am just being overly critical, but the fact remains, most pitchers do not all of the sudden blossom well into their 30’s. Unless of course they are a knuckleballer like R.A. Dickey or Tim Wakefield, and even Wakefield went back to his norm after one really magical season.

I do not want to start throwing out PED accusations or anything, I am just saying that I am very skeptical of Lohse’s recent success and am very doubtful that he will continue his production from the last 2 seasons. (To lighten the mood, I once had a league mate name his team the Lohse Bags. That one’s free.)

I wouldn’t go right out and pick up Lohse at the cost of a legit starter or evening rising young arm, say Tommy Milone or Adam Wainwright types. Now if you are short on starting pitching, you may want to take a flier on Lohse but depending on who you have to drop to make room for him. If you have an abundance of bats and there are not many options at pitcher then I like the move a little more. I might even drop guys like Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn or Coco Crisp who were going at the end of most drafts I was in and fall into the one-trick pony heading.  However I would struggle to drop guys like, Angel Pagan, Cameron Maybin or Lohse’s new teammate Norichika Aoki to pick up Kyle.

As far as arms, if I have guys like Clay Buchholz, James McDonald or Wandy Rodriguez I might take a flier on Lohse, hoping that as maybe he will have enough stuff to really prove last year wasn’t a fluke. But by the same token, if I have guys like Alexi Ogando, A.J. Burnett or Jaime Garcia, I would not be dropping them to go after Lohse.

Yes, there are always risks with any guy, and no I do not have any insider information into Lohse and how he achieved his success last year. I am just a guy sitting at a computer trusting his gut, which says to be careful with Lohse. It’s also telling me it’s time for lunch.