The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The NFL: Week 11

The Armchair Quarterback’s Week 11 Predictions

Well that certainly escalated quickly! After going nine straight weeks to start the season with a winning record in weekly picks, week 10 was a complete disaster. The weekly total ended up at 6-8 and it was by far the worst week of the season. The overall season total is still a respectable 98-49. That record is still better than 12 of the 13 ESPN “experts” that pick games every week (only Ron Jaworski has me beat). I point that out strictly to make myself feel better, but the truth is that last week I stunk up the joint. I vow to get back on track this week, and actually feel pretty good about this week’s picks. Let’s get to it.

Colts at Titans

Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing home loses. The Colts were clobbered by the Rams and the Titans let the Jaguars pick up their first win of the season in Tennessee. The Titans are a solid team, but with Jake Locker out this is going to be a hard game to pull out. It looks like the fears of some Colts fans that the loss of Reggie Wayne would have a huge impact were justified. Still, I think the Colts are a good enough team to beat the Locker-less Titans on the road. A healthy run game would help the Colts a lot, and that’s something they didn’t have against the Rams. I’m sure there’s a joke to be made about Trent Richardson and the “Rams” given the latest reports on the running back, but I’ll let you just use your imagination on that one.

Colts 20
Titans 17

Jets at Bills

After watching the Bills put up a good fight against Kansas City I picked them to knock off the Steelers on the road last week since they were getting EJ Manuel back. That didn’t work out so well. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a bye week that came after their upset of the Saints. I’m back off the Buffalo band wagon this week and am hoping the “good Jets” show up for this one (fingers crossed).

Jets 24
Bills 20

Falcons at Buccaneers

Before the season started if you had told me that the Bucs would be 1-8 at this point and I would still pick them to beat the Falcons I would have said you were crazy, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Not because I think the Bucs are much better than their record, but because I think you can stick a fork in the Falcons. When you have legit Super Bowl aspirations and then your season blows up in your face, it’s hard to find the motivation to fight through the long parts of the season. Don’t be surprised if Tony Gonzalez suddenly finds himself “injured” soon and spending the rest of the season on IR (which is code for sitting on a beach back in California).

Falcons 24
Buccaneers 26

Lions at Steelers

This season has worked out perfectly for the Lions. The Vikings are a disaster and the Bears and Packers have QB issues due to injuries. The division is basically theirs for the taking as long as they don’t implode (which would be a “Detroit” thing to do). The Steelers proved they are still capable of beating teams at home when they took care of the Bills last week. I just think the Lions have too many weapons and too much to play for to not pull this one out.

Lions 30
Steelers 23

Redskins at Eagles

I thought maybe the Redskins were turning the corner, but then they went and lost to the Vikings (sorry Vikings fans, you’re not very good this year). I thought the Eagles were dead in the water, but then Nick Foles started playing like a Hall of Famer. Foles is completing 63% of his passes at 9.2 yards per attempt, has 16 TDs and 0 INTs, and a QB rating of 132.5.

WHAT?!?!?

Seriously, I knew he was playing well, but I couldn’t believe it when I saw those numbers. Until he cools off, I’m rolling with him and the Eagles. Especially when they are going against a Washington pass defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. Look for a high scoring Eagles win in this one.

Redskins 27
Eagles 34

Cardinals at Jaguars

I don’t understand the Arizona Cardinals. They are 21st in points allowed and 22nd in points scored. They don’t have much of a running game and Carson Palmer has 15 interceptions. Yet somehow they have a winning record and are in the hunt for a wild card spot in the NFC. I haven’t picked the Cardinals to win very often, but I think they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt. The Jags did a nice job of getting their first win against the Titans, but anyone that’s not a Jags fan see that team winning two straight games? Anyone?……..Buhler?

Cardinals 20
Jaguars 16

Raiders at Texans

The Texans drive me crazy. They have the #1 defense in the NFL in yards allowed, Case Keenum has played REALLY well so far (7 TDs, 0 INTs, 105.1 QB rating), and yet the Texans can’t win a game. Every week I predict that their roster talent is finally going to get them a win and every week they let me down. The Raiders seem to waiver between respectable and just plain bad from week to week, but they do have more wins than the Texans. I still feel like Houston is the better team and am going to pick them to win yet again. That probably means you should bet everything you own on the Raiders.

Raiders 17
Texans 24

Ravens at Bears

The Bears season may have slipped through their fingers last week in their loss to Detroit. They left Jay Cutler in WAY too long when it was clear he wasn’t right. On top of that, they lost Charles Tillman for at least 6 weeks. The Ravens on the other hand, kept their playoff hopes alive when they pulled out an overtime win over their division rival Cincinnati. My brain says that the Bears are done and that the Ravens will get the road win, but my gut says that Josh McCown is going to continue to get the ball to the Bears’ play makers and make fans question if they want Jay Cutler back. I’m going with my gut here.

Ravens 20
Bears 21

Browns at Bengals

The Bengals lost to the Browns in Cleveland earlier this season and are now coming off of back to back loses to Miami and Baltimore. You have to think that those factors will have them up for this game. Plus, the Bengals are 4-0 at home this season with wins over the Packers and Patriots. The Browns do look better with Jason Campbell than they did with Brandon Weeden, but they still only have one road win on the season. I think the Bengals will rebound here.

Browns 20
Bengals 27

Chargers at Dolphins

People can talk about the distraction of the Martin/Incognito drama all they want. It may or may not be a huge distraction to the players, but the real issue is that the Dolphins offensive line was already horrible and then they lost two starters. The combination of no run game and bad pass protection is not good. Phillip Rivers can put up enough points to put the pressure on the Dolphins offense and I don’t think they’re up to the challenge of responding.

Chargers 23
Dolphins 17

Packers at Giants

Three weeks ago if you would have told me I’d consider picking the Giants over the Packers I would have laughed you out of the building. You combine an Aaron Rodgers injury with the Giants winning three straight and suddenly things look a lot different. The Giants are at home and as bad as Eli has played this year I can’t bring myself to pick Scott Tolzien to go on the road and beat him. I’ll take the Giants in what I think will be a pretty ugly game.

Packers 16
Giants 17

Vikings at Seahawks

Let’s cut to the chase. The Vikings are rated 28th in total offense and 30th in total defense, are 2-7 on the season, and are going on the road to face the most well-rounded team in the NFL on their home turf where they never lose. Not much else needs to be said.

Vikings 16
Seahawks 30

49ers at Saints

The Saints are 5-0 at home this season with a cumulative score of 176-75. That’s an average score of 35-15. Meanwhile, Colin Kaepernick is struggling a little bit in his first full season as the starter in San Francisco. I just don’t see the 49ers being able to score with Drew Brees and the Saints in that dome. The game may be close early on, but down the stretch the Saints will break it open.

49ers 20
Saints 31

Chiefs at Broncos

(Homer Alert) Obviously, I already talked a lot about this game in the “Take Of The Week”. Most experts will take the Broncos at home here, especially with KC dealing with the distraction of Dwayne Bowe’s arrest for marijuana possession. However, Andy Reid is 13-1 coming off his bye week and 18-2 if you include long weeks to prepare after Thursday night games. You add to that the fact that Peyton Manning is already banged up and the Broncos are still without their Head Coach and you have the makings of an upset. Either that or I’m just a huge Chiefs homer and refuse to pick against them when they have a winning streak going. I’ll let you decide which it is.

Chiefs 26
Broncos 24

Patriots at Panthers

For all the horrible match ups that we’ve seen in prime time this season the Sunday night and Monday night match ups this week are fantastic. The Patriots and Panthers would be the hands down best game of the week in any other week where the Broncos and Chiefs weren’t facing off for the first time. The Panthers have won five straight games and have only allowed three total TDs in four home games this season. While the Patriots seem to be getting better as the season goes on, they struggled with the Jets (twice) and the Bengals because of their physical front sevens. The Panthers front seven may be better than either of those two teams. I’ll take the Panthers to keep their winning streak alive.

Patriots 17
Panthers 20

Now on to the Armchair Quarterback Odds and Ends of the Week…………..