NBA All Star Game 2014: Predicting the rosters

Western Conference Reserves

Note: Each team has seven bench players to go along with their 5 starters, and for roster purposes, there must be at least 5 guards and 6 frontcourt players, with the 12th spot up for grabs for the most deserving candidate. These selections are in no particular order.

Guard – James Harden, Houston – There has been a big-time backlash against James Harden this season, but that doesn’t make him a less effective player. Harden’s game is the opposite of aesthetically pleasing, thanks to his repeated flings of his body in order to draw foul calls, and frankly, he’s a disaster on defense. Still, the 24-year-old guard is averaging 24.6 points, 5.2 assists, and 5.1 rebounds a game on a no-doubt playoff team in the West, and his efficiency on the offensive end is off the charts. If defense didn’t matter, he’d probably be a starter, but since it does, he lands here.

Guard – Tony Parker, San Antonio – I can’t wait for someone to tell me that Tony Parker isn’t an All-Star. Yes, Parker’s numbers are down across the board, but he’s playing less minutes, making more 3’s, and leading his team to a West-leading 30-8 record. The Spurs are the ultimate “win as a team” organization, and that certainly keeps Tony’s numbers down, but he’s still an elite player who is quite deserving of a spot.

Guard – Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City (Injured) – Westbrook gets the nod with the 5th and final backcourt slot, but as you probably know by now, he’ll be out with a right knee injury until after the break. In only 25 games this season, though, he’s been incredibly worthy of a spot, averaging 21.3 points, 7.0 assists, and 6.0 rebounds per game while helping to lead one of the best teams in the West. If he was able to play, he’d be an easy choice, but in his absence, they’ll be an injury replacement.

Forward – Anthony Davis, New Orleans – If Anthony Davis didn’t miss a stretch of games with injury, he would have made my starting list. In related news, Anthony Davis is 20 years old. The New Orleans big man has a top-6 PER in the entire league (26.57) to go along with 19.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, and that just scratches the surface of his effectiveness. “The Brow” is already one of the league’s most tantalizing defenders (3.1 blocks per game, to lead the NBA), and his length combined with top-flight athleticism makes him one of the best building blocks of any organization. No-doubt choice.

Forward – Blake Griffin, LA Clippers – Every week, I hammer home the point that Blake Griffin is underrated in my look at the MVP race, but no one seems to listen. Griffin’s numbers are ridiculous in 2013-2014, as he is averaging 22.3 points (on 52.7% shooting) and 10.4 rebounds per game. Throw in the fact that he’s done a lot of his recent damage without Chris Paul and the fact that Griffin’s efficiency (22.44 PER) is among the best in the league, and it’s easy to give the LA power forward a nod.

Forward – Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas – This may be the last time we see Dirk in the All-Star game, but it isn’t a career achievement award. He’s just been that good. As of this post, Dirk is 11th in the NBA in win shares and 9th in the NBA in PER (not just the West, the entire NBA), and he’s carrying a flawed Dallas roster to the 7th spot in the West. Because he’s playing 32.4 minutes per game, his overall numbers won’t blow you away, but it’s an incredibly efficient 21.2 points per game (49/41/90 shooting right now) that gives him the credence that he needs.

Center – Dwight Howard, Houston – I can’t figure out why it’s still cool to think that Dwight Howard isn’t a dominant big man. He’s certainly not the top-2 (yes, top-2) player that he was at one point in Orlando, but how can you not like/want a big man who is averaging 18.3 points and 12.7 rebounds per game with top-flight defense? Much is made about Houston’s (lack of) defense, but Howard has led them to a very respectable spot at #11 in overall efficiency, and Dwight is still a monster.

“The Snub” – Damian Lillard, Portland – As referenced above in the Russell Westbrook section, they’ll be an injury replacement and Lillard fits the bill.  Lillard’s resume (21.4 points, 5.7 assists per game with a 19.86 PER) is quite deserving of a spot, and it’s almost comical that he would sit on the sidelines with some of the choices in the Eastern Conference making the game. Alas, I think he gets there. Lastly, it is so tough to bounce both DeMarcus Cousins (team issues) and Tim Duncan (“off” year statistically) from the proceedings, but the West’s frontcourt is loaded.