The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The Super Bowl

The Armchair Quarterback’s Super Bowl Prediction

It’s time for the final prediction of the year. After going 1-1 in the conference championship games my postseason record stands at 7-3. If you combine that with a regular season record of 171-84 it gives a total season prediction record of 178-87. That’s a 67% prediction rate and I guess getting two out of three right on the season isn’t too bad. This week it’s all or nothing though. So before I give you my final prediction of the year here’s a little breakdown of the matchup.

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

When Denver Passes The Ball:
Den: 340.2 YPG, 68.3%, 8.3 YPA, 55 TDs, 10 INTs, 20 times sacked
Sea: 172.0 YPG, 59.0%, 5.8 YPA, 16 TDs, 28 INTs, 44 sacks

Look at the discrepancy in those averages! This is literally what each of these teams do best. Denver’s #1 attribute is their ability to throw the ball while for Seattle it is their ability to stop the pass. In an effort to not repeat the same thing over and over and try to be creative you’ll hear many say that the “real matchup” is what the Seattle offense will do against the Denver defense. That’s a load of horse pucky. This is the game right here. If Peyton can throw the ball, Denver wins. If the “Legion of Boom” keeps the Denver passing game in check, Seattle wins. Period.

When Denver Runs The Ball:
Den: 117.1 YPG, 4.1 YPC, 16 TDs
Sea: 101.6 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 4 TDs

I think the only real thing to note here is how its nearly impossible to score rushing TDs against the Seattle defense. In terms of rushing yards and yards per carry the numbers don’t imply that this game will be greatly out of the norm for either team. The pressure will just be on Peyton to get the ball in the endzone through the air since testing the Seahawks goal line defense doesn’t appear to be a smart idea.

When Seattle Passes The Ball:
Sea: 202.2 YPG, 63.6%, 8.4 YPA, 27 TDs, 9 INTs, 44 times sacked
Den: 254.4 YPG, 58.2%, 7.1 YPA, 29 TDs, 17 INTs, 41 sacks

Again, while the YPG actually favor the Seahawks, there isn’t anything here that points to this game being completely out of the realm of normal when it comes to Seattle’s passing game and Denver’s pass defense. I would point out that Denver’s passing defense has been good so far in the playoffs. They held Phillip Rivers and Tom Brady in check and Russell Wilson has just been okay so far in the playoffs.

When Seattle Runs The Ball:
Sea: 136.8 YPG, 4.3 YPC, 14 TDs
Den: 101.6 YPG, 3.9 YPC, 15 TDs

While the yardage totals show some difference here, don’t let that fool you. Seattle usually has the lead so they are running the ball more times to run out the clock while Denver’s opponents usually have to throw the ball more to keep up. So the YPC number and TDs allowed are really the better indicator here and once again those line up pretty close.

So what does this all tell us?

It tells us that this game will come down to the quarterback that just had arguably the greatest single season passing the football in the history of the sport throwing the ball against the best pass defense in the NFL. Denver will be able to run the ball a little, but not enough to carry the team. Seattle will be able to run and pass the ball some, but not enough to keep up with Peyton Manning if he’s putting up big numbers.

So what’s my prediction? Well, this is a tough one. My heart is telling me to take the Broncos. That old man Manning is going to finally get his signature win that defines his legacy. That as great of team as Seattle is, the Broncos have that one legendary player that can put them over the top…..but then my head steps in and says “yes, but how is Manning going to complete passes if his WRs are all smothered?”. See, officials usually let the players play in the Super Bowl and if the great DBs of Seattle are allowed to be physical with Denver’s pass catchers and jam them up at the line, knock them off their routes, and mess up Peyton’s timing then the pendulum swings in Seattle’s favor.

So heart or head?

Offense or Defense?

Manning or the Legion of Boom?

Broncos or Seahawks?

Drumroll please…………..

Denver 24
Seattle 23

In the biggest game of the year I’m following my heart and not my head, we’ll see if it was the right call. I won’t be surprised if either team wins. This just feels like Peyton’s year to me, but he is going to get an incredible test from that Seattle pass defense. I can’t wait to see how it plays out.

Now on to the odds and ends of the week………