NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2014: One-Bid Conferences, Part Two
By Mike Marteny
The Shockers will likely get a No. 1 seed after finishing the season 34-0 (Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports)
Over the next few days I will be dispensing all the up-to-the-minute info you’ll need to know before you fill out your 2014 NCAA Tournament brackets next week.
Earlier today I covered many of the teams from the traditional one-bid conferences that have already secured automatic entry into the 2014 NCAA Tournament. In this piece, the second of a ongoing series, I will continue to give you insight into all the possible tournament Cinderellas.
These teams may seem unimportant, but don’t be so sure about that. Bracket busters over the last five years such as Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Savannah State, Davidson, and George Mason all came from one-bid conferences. Any one of the teams in this column could pull off the same feat!
Remember to check back on Saturday as I continue my predictions and help you fill out that perfect bracket!
Let’s keep the good times rolling…
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Wichita State
Automatic Bid: Wichita State
Wichita State (34-0, RPI 5, SOS 94)
vs. RPI top 50: 3-0
vs. RPI under 200: 8-0
Quality wins: at (92) Tulsa, vs. (31) BYU at Kansas City, at (19) St Louis, vs. (43) Tennessee, at (88) Missouri State, (73) Indiana State, at (73) Indiana State, vs.(73) Indiana State at St Louis
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: 1
With Creighton now in the Big East, the Shockers follow up their unlikely Final Four run of 2013 with a regular season for the ages. They become the first team since the 1991 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels to enter the tournament undefeated. With Kansas losing last weekend, the Shockers are all but assured a number one seed. How will they react being the giant instead of the giant killer?
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Robert Morris
Automatic Bid: Mount St. Mary’s
Mount St. Mary’s (16-16, RPI 191, SOS 241)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-3
vs. RPI under 200: 10-7
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (328) UMBC, at (347) Maryland Eastern Shore, vs. (324) Binghamton, at (272) Fairleigh Dickinson, at (299) Long Island, at (219) Wagner, vs. (339) Sacred Heart
Projected Seed: 16
The Mount took out regular season champion Robert Morris, a team that had bea10 them twice in the regular season, in the conference tournament finals to earn their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 2008. The Mount will undoubtedly end up in the play-in game, same as they did in 2008 when they beat Coppin State for the right to get mauled by a number No. 1 seed.
It’d be un-American
not
to root for American University (Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Belmont
Automatic Bid: Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky (24-9, RPI 109, SOS 227)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 15-3
Quality wins: vs. (56) Belmont, vs. (56) Belmont at Nashville
Bad losses: vs. (236) Youngstown State at Kennesaw, GA, at (319) SIU-Edwardsville, at (211) Tennessee Tech
Projected Seed: 14
The Colonels only claim to fame this year is knocking off conference champ Belmont — twice — but they hung with a very good Virginia Commonwealth team before falling by three. Belmont, with their 56 RPI, will go off to the NIT to represent the OVC. Eastern Kentucky beat the Bruins in the OVC final to earn their first tourney trip since 2007.
PATRIOT LEAGUE:
Regular Season Champion: Boston University
Automatic Bid: American
American (20-12, RPI 120, SOS 223)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 14-4
Quality wins: at (86) Boston University
Bad losses: vs. (228) Brown, at (275) Loyola-Maryland, vs. (255) Colgate, at (257) Lafayette
Projected Seed: 15
Is it un-American not to root for the American Eagles? It is the most patriotic name in all the land, and is named after a popular clothing company (for those of you that don’t remember the pre-American Eagle apparel days, I can assure you the university was around long before)! Novelties aside, the Eagles have done little to turn heads this year. Their only “quality win” came in the Patriot League Championship Game, so I guess they are peaking at the right time. As for regular season champ Boston University, they are another regular-season champion heading for the NIT. American is back in the dance for the first time in five years.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Davidson
Automatic Bid: Wofford
Wofford (20-12, RPI 154, SOS 251)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 14-3
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (245) Chattanooga, vs. (245) Chattanooga, vs. (300) UNC-Greensboro
Projected Seed: 16
The Terriers don’t really have a signature win. They didn’t beat conference champion and 127 RPI Davidson in two meetings this year. Fifth-seed Western Carolina took the Wildcats out of the conference tourney to clear the way for Wofford. The Terriers are back in the NCAA tournament for the third time in five years, which are all of the tourney berths in school history!
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Stephen F Austin
Automatic Bid: TBD
Stephen F. Austin (29-2, RPI 66, SOS 324)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 16-1
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (201) East Tennessee State
Projected Seed: 13
The Lumberjacks have not lost since before Thanksgiving, terrorizing the Southland conference in the process. In fact, only two teams managed to come within five points of them. Their advancement to the NCAA Tournament seems like a sure thing, but we all know that in March, nothing is certain in the world of college basketball. The Lumberjacks have only made the big tourney once before, and that was in 2009.
NDSU will return to the tournament for the second time since 2009 (Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports)
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Southern
Automatic Bid: TBD. Southern lost in the first round of the SWAC tourney to Prairie View A&M, so I will preview the highest remaining seed, (2) Texas Southern.
Texas Southern (17-14, RPI 256, SOS 347)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 14-8
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: vs. (239) Lehigh at Brookings, SD, at (284) Cal State Fullerton, at (206) TCU, at (297) Jackson State, at (270) Alabama A&M, at (249) Alabama State, at (311) Prairie View A&M, vs. (297) Jackson State
Projected Seed: 16
With Southern losing in the first round of the SWAC tourney, whoever wins the automatic bid will likely be relegated to the play-in game. Texas Southern would seem to be the favorites now, ending the season with seven straight wins, including a road victory over regular season champion Southern. If the Tigers manage to ex10d their win streak to 10, they will be tourney-bound for the first time since 2003.
SUMMIT LEAGUE:
Regular Season Champion: North Dakota State
Automatic Bid: North Dakota State
North Dakota State (25-6, RPI 35, SOS 120)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 10-1
Quality wins: at (85) Western Michigan, vs. (68) Delaware
Bad losses: at (224) North Dakota
Projected Seed: 12
The Bison turned heads during football season, and that momentum has carried over into basketball as well. NDSU earned their second tourney berth in school history this year. Their first go-round in 2009 saw them give Kansas fans a heart attack in the first round. The same could happen this year. They’re one of those teams that has some decent wins and a high RPI, so the better seeds need to look out.
SUN BELT CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Georgia State
Automatic Bid: TBD
Georgia State (24-7, RPI 74, SOS 233)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 13-1
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (280) Troy
Projected Seed: 14
The Panthers last went to the NCAA tourney in 2001, when they knocked off Wisconsin in the first round. The Panthers’ only conference loss was the loss to Troy, so they would be a safe bet to get the auto-bid from the Sun Belt.
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Utah Valley
Automatic Bid: TBD
Utah Valley (20-10, RPI 131, SOS 254)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-3
vs. RPI under 200: 16-4
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (211) Tennessee Tech, at (253) South Dakota, vs. (267) Seattle, at (246) UMKC
Projected Seed: 15
The Wolverines split the season set with No 2-seed New Mexico State, the only leftover from the old WAC. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the Aggies could spoil Utah Valley’s first ever tourney invite.