Fantasy Football: Why the RB first strategy is still correct
By Mike Majeski
Each year, around this time in the summer, I start to plan my strategy for the upcoming fantasy football season. With training camps opening up, free agents signed, and draft guides on the shelves, it is the perfect time to put the previous season to bed, and begin planning for the next one. I play in three or four leagues each season, some more serious than others, mostly of the standard scoring format (my most serious league happens to be PPR), so a lot of preparation is needed prior to draft day(s).
The main narrative of nearly every draft guide I can recall is why you’re a complete dope for drafting anything other than a running back in the first round. If you took this advice for the 2013 season, chances are things did not go well for you. The majority of the top drafted running backs in ESPN leagues (basically anyone not named Charles, McCoy, Lynch, or Peterson) grossly underperformed and sunk many a season. Meanwhile, Payton Manning outscored entire teams in some weeks, and Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham once again had big seasons down the field. If there was any year where the conventional wisdom about selecting a running back first should shift, it is for 2014.
Alas, one down year does not make a trend. 2013 was epically bad for running backs, but that small of a sample size does not re-write years of established draft strategy. Footballguys.com established a metric called value-based drafting (VBD), which measures a player’s points total versus the baseline for that position. The baseline is calculated by counting how many players at that position are selected in the first 10 rounds. In 2013, 10 RBs were taken in the first 12 picks in ESPN leagues. Four of them finished within the top 12 for VBD and warranted that selection; five finished outside of the top 60 in VBD.
This just highlights how devastating of a year it was for the running back position. From 2008 to 2012, only three running backs who were selected in the first 12 picks finished outside of the Top 60. For the last six years, at least half of the running backs selected with the first 12 picks have finished in the top 12 for VBD. By comparison, out of the 13 quarterbacks who averaged into the first 12 picks since 2008, only two have finished within the Top 12 for VBD, three have finished outside the Top 60. Out of the 11 WRs selected with the first 12 picks, only one has finished in the Top 12 and three have finished outside of the Top 60. (Courtesy of ESPN)
It still remains more likely that a quarterback or wide receiver taken within the first 12 picks will be considered a bust, than a running back taken during that same slot. Drafting a QB or WR with your first pick remains a high risk, potentially high reward prospect.
The other argument I always see for taking a running back first is scarcity. Since the NFL is quickly growing into a pass first / RB by committee league, the fantasy stars at the RB position are already limited. Drew Brees finished second overall for quarterbacks last season in ESPN leagues and Colin Kaepernick finished 14th. Brees went first overall in our league and averaged 28.4 points. I got Kaepernick in the 5th round and he averaged just 8.4 less with 20. By the time I got to pick, Manning, Brees, Brady, and Luck were already off the board. Meanwhile, I scooped up Matt Forte (2nd ranked RB) and Calvin Johnson (3 ranked WR) with my first two picks.
If 2013 taught us anything when it comes to running backs, it’s the value of handcuffing. If you are going to invest in a running back early, it is a good strategy to also have his backup. Fred Jackson appeared to be playing second fiddle in Buffalo at the start of last season. That pick ended up working well for me later on in the season. There is no denying that running backs face a higher injury risk than some of the other positions.
Hitting the draft button on Peyton Manning or Drew Brees is tempting, but you are better off stocking up on running backs and wide receivers early, while the rest of the owners in your league overvalue the QB position. While you don’t want to wait too long and get stuck with Geno Smith as your starter, a second tier QB like Kaepernick, Rivers, or Ryan can give you the weekly production you need. The key to be successful at fantasy sports (besides a little luck) is balancing risk and reward. Over valuing a position when the data has shown that that position has been risky is the type of strategy that leads to disappointing weeks and a bad season.