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MLB: Predicting September playoff races in each division

By Ed Carroll

Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 27, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws during the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 27, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws during the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

NL West

Current leader: Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet on ’em to win: Dodgers

Rationale: No, the Dodgers aren’t invincible, and the San Francisco Giants aren’t going away at just 2.5 games back. But despite losing two straight to the San Diego Padres and getting swept by the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in August, the Dodgers are still firmly in the drivers’ seat in the NL West.

Manager Don Mattingly will have to use caution and ensure shortstop Hanley Ramirez will stay healthy for both all of September, but the playoffs as well. Ramirez hasn’t been as spectacular as he was in 2013, mostly due to an extreme defensive regression. Ramirez is having his worst defensive season since 2007 per Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), though it’s worth noting his -11.3 UZR in 2014 is nowhere near as horrific as 2007’s -20.6 UZR.

Defensive Runs Saved paint a similar picture, as Ramirez is -10 in 2014, after 3 DRS in 2013 (his career high). But LA’s offense goes as Ramirez goes, and Ramirez can MASH. He has 13 home runs, 132 wRC+ (top 20 in the NL), a weighted on base average of .358, all in a year where he’s been hobbled by injuries.

Don’t forget LA also has the electrifying Yasiel Puig, and a stupid-good rotation with likely NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, as well as Zack Greinke, the recently-returned Hyun-Jin Ryu and a deep and experienced bullpen, and the Dodgers remain the class of this division.

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