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MLB: Predicting September playoff races in each division

By Ed Carroll

Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 27, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 27, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

NL Central

Current leader: Brewers
Bet on ’em to win: St. Louis Cardinals

Rationale: Milwaukee has had two great months (April and June records: 37-18), two awful months (May and July record: 21-31), and are .500 for the month of August entering into August 31. The unsung MVP of the Brewers might be catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who in addition to providing elite pitch-framing and catching defense, owns a higher wRC+ (135) than anyone else on the team, including outfielder Carlos Gomez.

Both St. Louis and Milwakee only have 10 games in September against teams with records of .500 or better, including seven against each other (four of the games are in Milwaukee). But betting against St. Louis has been a fool’s errand in years past. Adam Wainwright probably won’t win the NL Cy Young (again), but he’s still an ace, and still pitching at an elite level, with a 2.59 ERA in 188 IP, and only allowing seven home runs all season.

Lance Lynn has also been excellent (2.79 ERA, 147 Ks in 164.2 IP), and while deadline acquisition Justin Masterson still looks lost, fellow acquisition John Lackey has been better in limited innings, and boats plenty of playoff experience. Throw in a nasty bullpen featuring closer Trevor Rosenthal and Pat Neshek, and the Cardinals appear poised to seize the NL Central once again in 2014.

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