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MLB: Predicting September playoff races in each division

By Ed Carroll

Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starter Jon Lester (31) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 27, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey (28) hits a walk-off home run against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports. Giants win 4-2.
Aug 27, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey (28) hits a walk-off home run against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports. Giants win 4-2. /

NL Wild Cards

Current leaders: Giants (+1), Cardinals
Bet on ’em to win: Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates (1 game back)

Rationale: As stated earlier, expect the Cardinals to win the NL Central, and the Dodgers to keep hold of the NL West. This leaves the Giants firmly in control of the top Wild Card spot to host the one-game playoff. San Francisco is without Matt Cain for the rest of the year, but deadline acquisition Jake Peavy has picked up the slack in his seven starts for the Giants, and the former Padre is no stranger to the NL West.

Buster Posey (18 HRs, 4.3 fWAR) is once again having an MVP-type season in the Bay. The Pirates had been left for dead, unable to make a deadline pickup to improve the team, but Andrew McCutchen is also an MVP candidate (20 HRs, .401 OBP, 5.0 fWAR) and Josh Harrison is having a breakout year (12 HRs, 17 stolen bases, 4.0 fWAR).

If Pittsburgh misses the playoffs, one can likely blame its suspect rotation, which, while boasting some promising young arms (led by Vance Worley and Garrett Cole), but only two active starters have made 20 starts or more for the Pirates (Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano, with Charlie Morton on the 15-day DL). Milwaukee also lurks for both the NL Central and a Wild Card spot.

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