NFL: 5 teams most likely to underachieve

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Jan 5, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) scrambles with the football during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers during the 2013 NFC wild card playoff football game at Lambeau Field. San Francisco won 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

2. Green Bay Packers: 10.5 wins

How can I pick against Aaron Rodgers? It’s not that I’m picking against Rodgers; I’m just picking against the Packers’ schedule.

Unfortunately for Wisconsin peeps, the Packers play in one of the toughest divisions in football. If the Packers were, say, in the AFC South, they’d probably win 12 games.

Instead, the Packers play in the NFC North and will compete against Chicago and Detroit, two teams as good as the Packers at virtually every level, for the division title. Any one of those three teams could win the division. Minnesota, a team who’ll easily overachieve this season, could be the dark horse in the division to win 10 games and steal a wildcard spot like they did in 2012.

On top of playing in a tough division, the Packers also open the season in Seattle and play four games against the NFC South, a division on the rebound with the elite New Orleans Saints, reloading Atlanta Falcons, and the new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers coached by former Bears’ coach Lovie Smith, who knows Mike McCarthy and the Packers as good as anyone in the league.

With the Eagles and Patriots also on Green Bay’s schedule, I’ve highlighted eight possible games that could be losses for the Packers (three division road games, Seattle, Philadelphia, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay).

While the Packers’ offense is one of the best in the league and will win plenty of games because of it, the Packers’ defense is turning heads for the wrong reasons. The Packers allowed 26.8 points per game last season, 24^th in the league. Unfortunately, the Packers didn’t get dramatically better this offseason, either. Free agent acquisition at defensive end, Julius Peppers, and rookie safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are improvements on defense, but Peppers is past his prime and Clinton-Dix is, like I just pointed out, a rookie. Neither are sure-fire fixes for the Packers defense. Add in the loss of defensive tackle B.J. Raji for the entire season because of a torn biceps injury, and the Packers’ defense doesn’t look much better than last season.

Ultimately, I think the Packers make the playoffs as the wildcard at 10-6, but the Bears or the Lions will win the division.

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