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NFL Predictions: 2014 Winners and losers

By Bryan Gibberman

Aug 28, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) reacts against the Oakland Raiders at O.co Colisuem. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 28, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) reacts against the Oakland Raiders at O.co Colisuem. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 14, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; A detailed view of the Jacksonville Jaguars helmet before the preseason game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 14, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; A detailed view of the Jacksonville Jaguars helmet before the preseason game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /

AFC South 

1st Place- Jacksonville Jaguars

2nd Place- Houston Texans 

3rd Place- Indianapolis Colts 

4th Place- Tennessee Titans

Welcome to the worst division in the NFL that I’m amazingly going to pick two playoff teams from. This is what’s known as a calculated risk. Despite what I talked about to open the column, evidence does also show teams do have significant flips in record from year to year. This is my long shot based on the awfulness of the division and the conference in general. The AFC stinks.

The Colts had the lowest point differential of any division winner in 2013 and made the playoffs with a negative point differential the season before. Maybe Andrew Luck is some special voodoo magician that breaks the typical patterns of what’s been found to occur in the NFL, but I’ll take my chances Indy regresses this season.

If Houston had a better quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick and I was confident in Arian Foster returning to form they would have been the choice to win the division. Even though Jadaveon Clowney is only a rookie, there might not be a more intimidating front seven combo than him and J.J. Watt. The pass defense fell off a cliff last season and an improved pass rush can help stabilize the issue.

I was tempted to put the Titans second, but decided to go with the Texans. Quarterback Jake Locker was continuing to show the type of progress you want in a young quarterback before he got injured against the Jets. Locker’s completion percentage improved every year starting at 51-percent as a rookie and reaching 60-percent on 183 attempts in his third year. If the pattern continues he can be a viable starting quarterback option for new head coach Ken Whisenhunt.

Which brings us to the Jaguars. I like this pick even more if Gus Bradley rolled out rookie Blake Bortles as his starting quarterback instead of Chad Henne. I have no idea what Bortles is going to be, but his variance has a higher ceiling than Henne’s.

My hope is for Jacksonville to play smart, efficient offense with limited turnovers and their defense to make a jump in year two under Bradley. Improved offensive line play is also essential for this long shot to be able to happen.

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