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MLB: Who will be the biggest x-factors in the playoff chase?

By Ed Carroll

Aug 30, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) hits a single against the Chicago White Sox during the eighth inning at U.S Cellular Field. Chicago White Sox defeat the Detroit Tigers 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 30, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) hits a single against the Chicago White Sox during the eighth inning at U.S Cellular Field. Chicago White Sox defeat the Detroit Tigers 6-3. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 23, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Chris Young (53) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 23, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Chris Young (53) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports /

SP Chris Young, Seattle Mariners

Yes, the same Chris Young who is 35-years old, the same, oft-injured starter who has only pitched more innings than his current total (151) three times, the last in 2007, and still has a chance to eclipse his career-high in innings pitched (179.1, in 2006), provided he stays healthy in this final month. Which Mariners Manager Lloyd McClendon says isn’t guaranteed.

Young lasted only two-thirds of an inning in a loss to the Oakland Athletics on Monday, which was particularly devastating to Seattle, who is three-and-a-half games behind Oakland and a half-game in back of the second Wild Card entering play on Sept. 4.

It’s possible Young’s season has been a bit of a fluke; in addition to having nearly his best year ever at this age, Young’s peripheral statistics paint a picture of less dominance, and a lot more luck. His BABIP is likely unsustainably low (.236), his fielding independent pitching rating is more than a full run higher than his ERA (3.46 ERA, 4.74 FIP) and he’s stranding runners a lot (80.1 percent left on base rate), though it should be noted this is not the highest of his career in a season with more than 100 innings pitched – Young stranded 80.6 percent in 2006 (same year as his career-high IP).

Still, it is better to be lucky, rather than simply good in September baseball, and the Mariners will need Young to continue to produce in order to sneak into the postseason.

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